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I Unlocking the hydrogen economy stimulating investment across the hydrogen value chain Investor perspectives on risks, challenges and the role of the public sector Unlocking the hydrogen economy stimulating investment across the hydrogen value chain Investor perspectives on risks, challenges and the role of the public sector Unlocking the hydrogen economy stimulating investment across the hydrogen value chain Investor perspectives on risks, challenges and the role of the public sector © European Investment Bank, 2022. All rights reserved All questions on rights and licensing should be addressed to publicationseib.org. European Investment Bank 98 -100, boulevard Konrad Adenauer L-2950 Luxembourg 352 4379-1 infoeib.org www.eib.org twitter.com/eib facebook.com/europeaninvestmentbank youtube.com/eibtheeubank Prepared for European Commission DG RTD By Innovation Finance Advisory, European Investment Bank Authors F. Gilles, P. Brzezicka Acknowledgements European Commission Jochen Brodersen, Dermot Buttle, Martyn Chamberlain, Fabio Domanico, Martin Gieb, Katarzyna Gryc, Gwennael Joliff-Botrel, Ruud Kempener, Eirik Lonning, Francesco Matteucci, Patrice Millet, Anders Morris, Antonio Pantaleo, Edward Ricketts, Gabriele Salvo, Wolfgang Schneider, Lorenzo Tama Supervisor S. Dustdar Analytical support provided by McKinsey Southern Europe 17 Eastern Europe 3 European Union 6 International North America and Asia 20 7Hydrogen state of play HYDROGEN STATE OF PLAY European investors expect hydrogen to play a key role in decarbonising EU economies, especially in energy-intensive sectors where decarbonisation has been particularly challenging. Hydrogen’s unique properties can enable sustainable energy innovation. Hydrogen is the most abundant chemical substance in the universe. When isolated in its pure form dihydrogen, or H 2 , it has a number of physical properties that make it useful in contexts where energy needs to be used, stored or transferred. Hydrogen combustion does not produce CO 2 or any other greenhouse gas. Hydrogen is already in use in sectors such as petrochemical refining and fertiliser production. In the future, hydrogen could also play a useful role in decarbonising energy-intensive industrial sectors such as steel production and act as a buffer for intermittent renewable power sources. Hydrogen can also provide energy for fuel cell electric vehicles and decarbonise heating applications. Production Methods Today, the vast majority of hydrogen is produced via methods that release carbon emissions “grey” hydrogen from coal or natural gas-based processes as Figure 2 illustrates. Importantly, alternative methods exist to produce the molecule with limited or near-zero emissions. For example, the process of electrolysis can separate hydrogen from water and, if based on renewable electricity, can produce renewable hydrogen without emitting carbon i.e. “green” or “renewable” hydrogen. To date, renewable hydrogen production remains expensive in most cases and dependent on the availability and cost of renewable electricity. Figure 2 Overview of global hydrogen production sources in 2020; source IEA International Energy Agency 1 90 MT H 2 Natural gas w/o carbon capture, utilisation and storage 59 By product 21 Coal 19 Oil 0.6 Natural gas w/ carbon capture, utilisation and storage 0.7 Source IEA. All rights reserved 1 https//iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/e57fd1ee-aac7-494d-a351-f2a4024909b4/GlobalHydrogenReview2021.pdf 8 Unlocking the hydrogen economy stimulating investment across the hydrogen value chain Another method of low-carbon hydrogen production i.e. “blue” hydrogen utilises existing fossil- based production processes, while capturing most of the emissions. Nevertheless, there are concerns about the sustainability of this type of hydrogen, since investing in this technology could “lock in” carbon-intensive infrastructure and crowd out the rapid scale-up of green hydrogen 2 . Terminology Following the terminology used by the market representatives consulted throughout this report, the term “low-carbon hydrogen” encompasses green hydrogen also referred to as “renewable” or “clean” and low-carbon blue hydrogen i.e. fossil-based hydrogen with carbon capture. Green Deal Objectives Given its physical properties as an energy carrier, hydrogen is expected to play a key role, alongside renewables, in Europe’s energy transition. For instance, hydrogen is emerging as a solution to decarbonise certain hard-to-abate industrial processes such as the production of chemicals or steel, and also long-distance or heavy transport applications where range and refuelling times matter. Hydrogen could also play a role in the power sector and support certain heating applications. The key uses of hydrogen are summarised in the figure below. Figure 3 Overview of hydrogen applications; source Hydrogen Council Source Hydrogen Council In order to realise this potential and contribute to the objectives of the European Green Deal for carbon neutrality by 2050, substantial investment will be required to scale up hydrogen infrastructure and promote further innovation. This should help to lower costs and facilitate the adoption of hydrogen across the energy system. 2 See https//climateanalytics.org/publications/2021/why-gas-is-the-new-coal/ 9Hydrogen state of play To achieve the European Union’s hydrogen strategy, €24-42 billion of investment will be needed by 2030 in European electrolyser capacity alone. EU Hydrogen Strategy Targets The EU hydrogen strategy recognises the importance of developing a clean hydrogen economy and aims to install six gigawatts of electrolyser capacity by 2024, scaling up to a total of 40 gigawatts by 2030. To achieve these goals, Europe will need to invest a cumulative amount of €24-42 billion in electrolysers alone by 2030. Together with the additional investment that will be required in renewable energy capacity, transportation and storage infrastructure and hydrogen applications, the total funding required by 2030 is in the range of hundreds of billions of euros. Future regulation could also further stimulate demand and increase funding needs in the hydrogen sector. By mid-century, the cumulative investment needed in hydrogen production capacity in the European Union could be as high as €470 billion. The funding committed to hydrogen projects today, however, remains relatively low due to a number of hurdles and uncertainties, in terms of economic competitiveness, regulatory clarity, financing availability and lack of supply chain maturity among others. Project Development and Investment State of Play Particular efforts at EU level towards the development of hydrogen projects have been ongoing since the launch of the EU hydrogen strategy. The European Clean Hydrogen Alliance was launched to mobilise players across the hydrogen value chain for the development of a pipeline of projects. In November 2021, a list of 750 projects was released as a result of the work of Alliance members, comprising production, midstream and application-level projects across Europe. In parallel, a process to identify Important Projects of Common European Interest IPCEI was launched in December 2020 to identify major projects and provide a basis for public support that goes beyond normal state aid limitations. Work is still ongoing to select projects and allocate funds. Some of the projects emerging from these initiatives are large-scale, cross-value chain projects involving several regions or countries. Such ambitious developments are important because they present an opportunity to create more viable end-to-end hydrogen ecosystems. Some of these have been labelled “lighthouse” projects. While the challenges described in this report apply just as well to these large and complex developments, attention to their success is critical for the mainstream development of hydrogen at scale. Overall, project promoters have announced more than €130 billion of investment in hydrogen in the European Union to date. However, out of the 23 gigawatts of electrolyser capacity to be installed by 2030, only 350 megawatts less than 2 are linked to projects that are currently underway or for which a final investment decision has been made. The environment for financing investment in hydrogen remains challenging due to a number of issues. Given these challenges and the magnitude of the investment required to develop a hydrogen economy in the European Union, it is crucial to understand the perspective of investors and the factors that will help allocate market financing to hydrogen projects and increase the impact of public resources dedicated to hydrogen’s development. The following chapters detail the market’s feedback on these issues and views on potential solutions. 11Key interview findings KEY INTERVIEW FINDINGS Investor interest in hydrogen has risen substantially in recent years but investment activity in renewable and low-carbon hydrogen projects has been constrained by a combination of risks and challenges. If unaddressed, these could hinder the investment and project development needed to achieve the targets of the European Green Deal and the European Union’s hydrogen strategy. All 46 investors consulted in this study acknowledged the potential of hydrogen and its importance as an investment opportunity. The majority of investors consulted have already announced specific internal initiatives or developed strategies to approach this opportunity. At the same time, investor feedback also clearly underlines that significant risks and challenges exist and need to be addressed in order to make investment possible. Based on the consultation, this report focuses on the key forces that are at work across six key findings Figure 4 Overview of findings across key dimensions Market and regulatory conditions Finding 1 economics The current economic disadvantage of clean hydrogen and its applications compared to other alternatives limits demand. Finding 2 regulation The lack of regulatory clarity on key hydrogen development aspects creates risks for investors. Acces-to-finance conditions Finding 3 innovation Innovation in hydrogen remains crucial, but access to finance for early-stage innovators is constrained, in particular for the demonstration of new technologies. Finding 4 project finance The mobilisation of large-scale project-based financing for the deployment of hydrogen infrastructure is constrained. Value chain integration higher production, transport, storage and application costs; and the insufficient monetisation of avoided carbon emissions. The current cost gap for the production, transport and use of low-carbon hydrogen is thus the primary constraint to making hydrogen business models work. Indeed, investor feedback indicates that the economic gap, which reduces returns on investment, is present across practically all areas of the low-carbon hydrogen value chain The production of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen remains more expensive than existing grey hydrogen production approaches. In the case of renewable hydrogen, this cost differential is mainly attributable to the cost of clean electricity and the cost of electrolyser equipment. Limited access to low-cost means for transporting and storing hydrogen through pipelines, liquefaction, or hydrogen carriers adds substantially to the final cost of hydrogen. Across applications, the lack of scale and maturity of technologies also keeps costs high. For example, the use of hydrogen in steelmaking is found to add significant costs to the process and the cost of fuel cell vehicles also remains higher than existing alternatives. The relatively high costs associated with hydrogen are prompting some investors to seek partnerships for their first projects. The high costs also encourage promoters to locate projects close to abundant, low-cost sources of renewable energy and in proximity to customers in order to lower or avoid transport costs. These measures, however, are often still insufficient to overcome the economic gap for initial deployment initiatives. Investors demand a supportive ecosystem The view of the investors consulted is that a robust support ecosystem is indispensable to bridge the hydrogen cost gap. This is seen as critical to supporting the adoption of hydrogen technologies, especially in the early stages of growth. Investors called for clearer public support mechanisms that create long-term visibility and positive returns, enabling them to approve projects based on their financial and economic merits. 13Key interview findings While bridging the economic gap is a key consideration, many players also pointed to the need for measures that level the playing field in a way that is consistent with the European Union’s aim of reducing carbon emissions, for instance through some form of carbon levy that would help put a value on the positive externalities of lower-carbon hydrogen initiatives. Investors also commented on the incomplete and fragmented offering of public support mechanisms for hydrogen projects. Schemes differ greatly between sectors and regions, or are in some cases non- existent. This calls for more integration of public support, including from a value chain management perspective. Lastly, investors pointed out the lack of financial support for operating costs among available instruments. In the case of hydrogen, a lack of financial support for operating costs can be particularly challenging because production of the molecule is in certain cases reliant on operating expenditure for instance, purchasing grid electricity to power electrolysers versus capital expenditure for instance, building dedicated renewable infrastructure for the same purpose. Scaling must be accelerated to decrease costs While the economic gap is a significant short-term obstacle, investors recognise the potential impact for economies of scale to drive down costs over time, as well as the need to collaborate closely with other players across the value chain in the development of large-scale projects. This type of multi- party collaboration is primarily aimed at ensuring more efficient infrastructure deployment than would otherwise be achievable. Furthermore, significant cost reductions can only be achieved through industrialisation and through the expansion of production capacity. However, investors agreed that the current levels of industrialisation and production capacities are insufficient to achieve the deployment targets set out in the EU hydrogen strategy. There is a need for demand-creation mechanisms Compounding the challenge, hydrogen business models often need to be integrated into complex value chains. As a result, investors fear that projects may not be viable in the near term without broad adoption and demand for hydrogen across the full value chain. For investors, this calls for measures to boost deman