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In collaboration with PwC and EPRI WORLD ENERGY INSIGHTS WORKING PAPER REGIONAL INSIGHTS INTO LOWhyphen.caseCARBON HYDROGEN SCALE UP 2 WO R L D E N E R G Y C O U N C I L I N C O L L A B O R A T I O N W I T H E P R I A N D P WC The World Energy Council has been at the heart of global, regional and national energy debates for nearly a century, developing new thinking and driving ef_fective action around the world to achieve the benefits of sustainable energy for all. Comprised of over 3,000 member organisations in nearly 90 countries, drawn from governments, private and state corporations, academia and new and wider system shapers stakeholders, the Council is the world’s first and only truly global member-based energy network. The Council works dynamically across the whole energy sector as a global energy transitions platform, pulling together intelligent leadership to catalyse and inform the world’s energy policy dialogue, create impact and drive practical action. The Council does not advocate for any country, company, technology or source of energy. The World Energy Council remains thoroughly committed to the challenge of being both impartial and impactful. To learn more visit www.worldenergy.org Published by the World Energy Council April 2022 Copyright © 2021 World Energy Council. All rights reserved. All or part of this publication may be used or reproduced as long as the following citation is included on each copy or transmission ‘Used by permission of the World Energy Council’. World Energy Council Registered in England and Wales No. 4184478 VAT Reg. No. GB 123 3802 48 Registered Of_f_ice 62–64 Cornhill London EC3V 3NH United Kingdom WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL ABOUT THE WORLD ENERGY INSIGHTS These World Energy Insights on hydrogen are part of a series of publications by the World Energy Council focused on Innovation. They were developed in collaboration with the Electric Power Research Institute EPRI and PwC. EPRI and Gas Technology Institute GTI have created the Low-Carbon Resources Initiative LCRI to address the challenges and gaps in achieving deep carbon reductions across the energy economy. LCRI is focused on the value chain of alternative energy carriers and low-carbon fuelssuch as hydrogen, ammonia, biofuels including renewable natural gas, and synthetic fuelsand research, development, and demonstration to enable their production, storage, delivery, and use across the energy economy. These energy carriers/fuels are needed to enable af_fordable pathways to economy- wide decarbonization by mid-century. This five-year, global collaborative will identify and accelerate fundamental development of promising technologies; demonstrate and assess the performance of key technologies and processes, identifying pathways to possible improvements; and inform key stakeholders and the public about technology options and potential pathways to a low-carbon future. PwC is a network of firms in 155 countries with over 284,000 people committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services, including more than 20,000 professionals engaged in the energy, utilities and resources sectors. With its global strategy, The New Equation, PwC is responding to the challenges shaping the world today, with a focus on building trust and delivering sustained outcomes that create value for organisations, their stakeholders and broader society. Climate change is one of the world’s most pressing problems, and PwC has committed to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and is working with organisations to accelerate their own climate-based transformation. PwC and the World Energy Council have a common goal of promoting energy transition and sustainability by engaging with policymakers and leading industry players. Our shared view is that energy transition and sustainability are achieved through the interaction of robust policy frameworks and a strong, competitive energy industry. Learn more about PwC In a fast-paced era of disruptive changes, these insights aim to facilitate strategic sharing of knowledge between the Council’s members and the other energy stakeholders and policy shapers and contribute to a global dialogue on hydrogen’s role in energy transitions. These insights build upon earlier work by the Council, notably the release of the “Hydrogen on the Horizon” series in July and September 2021, and involved regional in-depth conversations with 180 high-level experts from 67 countries, reflecting 82 of the global Total Primary Energy Supply – TPES 2019 data, U.S. EIA and 89 of global GDP 2020 data, WB. The analysis and forecasts available in this publication and any associated references do not reflect the military conflict occurring in Ukraine. Although we acknowledge that the situation in Ukraine and the resulting disruptions in energy markets will greatly af_fect the future of low-carbon hydrogen, this release is based on analysis prior to the February 2022 events. 3 W O R L D E N E R G Y I N S I G H T S W O R K I N G P A P E R bar.case R E G I O N A L I N S I G H T S I N T O L O W hyphen.case CA R B O N H Y D R O G E N S CA L E U P TABLE OF CONTENTS 04 14 13 19 34 51 53 54 39 PAGES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY REGIONAL INSIGHTS ENABLERS FOR LOWhyphen.caseCARBON HYDROGEN MARKET RAMPhyphen.caseUP ANNEX 2 LIST OF LOWhyphen.caseCARBON HYDROGEN VALLEYS REFERENCES ACKNOWLEDGMENT ANNEX 1 REGIONAL DASHBOARDS INSIGHTS ON HYDROGEN SUPPLY CHAINS DEVELOPMENT INTRODUCTION Africa Africa Context Low-carbon hydrogen a global commodity in the future Low-carbon hydrogen price developments Latin America and the Caribbean Latin America and the Caribbean Asia-Pacific Asia-Pacific Middle East regulatory priorities to unlock low-carbon hydrogen potential, notably adapting legislation to allow for clean molecules to be part of the energy mix; economic and financial mandates and incentives, including carbon pricing, blending quotas, and low-carbon fuel credits. National support for the development of hydrogen hubs is also key to facilitate the creation of local demand and supply in concert. In particular, there is an urgent need to shift the focus onto the usefulness of energy for people, and to look at low-carbon hydrogen demand and the end-users. Firstly, focus must be shifted to look at the low-carbon hydrogen end-user price. Increase in low-carbon hydrogen demand is cost sensitive. The focus of the conversation should move from hydrogen production cost to final price for end users and include transport cost challenging as there are many components, with some very dif_f_icult to estimate, such as transport infrastructure, local permitting, etc., storage costs, profit margin, and provisioning costs at the final point of consumption. These costs may be much larger than the cost of hydrogen production itself and the end objective to make hydrogen competitive in the low-carbon future is not production at the lowest cost, but supply at the lowest price for the greatest benefit of societies and the environment. Secondly, additional support should be focused on the end-users. More support on the demand-side is needed, targeting end-users that will consume hydrogen in their application. This can be achieved by providing supply transparency and guarantees for the buyer. In particular, experts unanimously called for guarantees of origin and global sustainability requirements to help the hydrogen market develop. Global cooperation on the topic needs to start today if clean hydrogen development is going to help achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. However, it should be noted that a globally harmonised mechanism poses the risk of establishing a deliberately simplified or less ambitious framework i.e., agreeing on ENABLING SCALE 9 Figure IV. State of play of bilateral partnerships Source World Energy Council Bilateral partnership Bilateral partnership with planned trade Trilateral partnership WO R L D E N E R G Y C O U N C I L I N C O L L A B O R A T I O N W I T H E P R I A N D P WC 10 the lowest common denominator and may require a longer time frame to be adopted, which might be incompatible with short-term cross-country trade plans. Current regulatory uncertainty on low-carbon hydrogen e.g., lack of harmonised definitions of hydrogen production methods, carbon intensity rules, etc. is delaying investment and ramp-up of industrial- scale projects. National and regional initiatives are advancing on this topic, but unilaterally, which can create barriers for global trade. Experts are therefore calling for an international, recognized institution to lead a global ef_fort to standardize these definitions. Additionally, providing more support to end-users entails encouraging the switch to low-carbon alternatives through incentives and other policy tools e.g., carbon price, Carbon Contracts for Dif_ference CCFDs, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism CBAM, or quotas. Finally, supporting end-users requires reducing uncertainty to de-risk investment. While current prices and safety concerns hinder hydrogen scale-up, in the short term, Memoranda of Understanding, partnerships, and long-term contracts are shaping the market and providing visibility for risks takers. As the market develops, more flexibility and competitiveness can emerge. Thirdly, low-carbon hydrogen development should consider social impacts alongside economic opportunities. More emphasis is needed on ensuring local low-carbon hydrogen demand is met first in applications where it makes economic sense compared to alternatives, particularly in countries with significant existing consumption of hydrogen or export ambitions. Developing low-carbon hydrogen usage downstream requires its own transport, infrastructure, and storage facilities, which can create new skills and jobs opportunities, particularly in countries with abundant renewable energy resources, due to hydrogen’s versatility. This can enable the respective societies to capture more value linked to low-carbon hydrogen economy developments. A key success factor for low-carbon hydrogen uptake relates to the social licence and the resulting necessity to provide more education for the public around its role in abating climate change and the role it could play in energy systems in respect to increasing equity and justice. Training and outreach will be needed to increase hydrogen literacy within the general population, and to improve the existing skillset across the industry. In that respect, the development of a global monitoring and reporting tool on low-carbon hydrogen projects would help awareness and literacy ef_forts amongst the general public, in addition to tracking progress over time and supporting decision making. WO R L D E N E R G Y C O U N C I L I N C O L L A B O R A T I O N W I T H E P R I A N D P WC Table I. Regional Insights SDGS M ark et activities / opportunities R egional paths K e y E nablers SDGs legend AFRICA A huge potential but little infrastructure how does Africa enable an export market as well as grow a domestic one End-use priorities 1- Energy access, 2- Agriculture, 3-Export, 4- Industry Low-carbon hydrogen production sources 1- Renewable hydrogen, 2- Natural hydrogen, 3- Hydrogen from natural gas with CCUS Developing low-carbon hydrogen could help Africa in tackling issues of energy access, energy independence, food security and local employment Africa has sizeable renewable energy resources to develop low-carbon hydrogen production no prejudice of the type of hydrogen - renewable hydrogen, low-carbon hydrogen from natural gas and coal with CCUS Asia-Pacific region at the epicentre of the movement towards a “hydrogen economy” - Japan, South Korea and Australia released a strategy first Integrated approach to low-carbon hydrogen-based fuels that can support decarbonisation ef_forts across a multitude of applications and sustain economic growth via innovation and new technologies for export Interest increasing in other countries; although the overarching plans are yet to be released, inc. from key players China and India In the early stage of low-carbon hydrogen uptake defining priorities between fuels could facilitate the scale up and more regional and global cooperation is needed to tackle the obstacles to global trade development e.g., lack of harmonised definition of hydrogen sources, updating maritime regulations, etc. Increasing bilateral and multilateral cooperation to progress the low-carbon hydrogen global supply chain and hydrogen trade Integrated approach to energy policies on which low-carbon production sources, pure hydrogen vs. intermediate steps e.g., power to methane, ammonia, liquid fuels, etc. - Developing harmonised standards and streamlining regulations is key for low- carbon hydrogen ramp up Timeline gap between the ambitious climate agenda and hydrogen infrastructure implementation very large infrastructure projects notably for import operational after 2030. In the meantime, within Europe, on-site projects and hydrogen hubs are developing, and of_f-site electrolysers in regions with high renewable energy capacities could supply part of the European demand Eliminating regulatory obstacles in the European Union and misalignment between Member States More support mechanisms for the production-side and switch incentives for the demand-side e.g., CCFDs or quotas Supporting the development of international trade More coordinated hydrogen diplomacy action in the EU LAC Increasing self-suf_f_iciency and developing new regional cooperation End-use priorities 1- Industry, 2- Mobility, 3- Agriculture, 4- Export H2 momentum is picking up and regional cooperation is increasing The continent is attracting increased attention from potential importing markets e.g., Netherlands, Australia, Japan Cooperation could increase to attract more foreign investment and install the LAC region in the global hydrogen market Regional cooperation to increase visibility for the continent and attract external investments Better identifying and building on each country’s individual strengths for an integrated low-carbon hydrogen supply chain MEGS Low-carbon hydrogen driven by Circular Carbon Economy and sustaining energy export End-use priorities 1- Export, 2- Industry Low-carbon hydrogen production sources 1- hydrogen from all locally available fossil fuels with CCUS, 2- renewable hydrogen Momentum in MEGS is driven by the energy incumbents, in addition to the region’s Circular Carbon Economy agenda Investments are being implemented with the end goal of sustaining energy exports to existing markets in Europe and Asia Existing vast oil and gas assets, coupled with excellent natural resources for renewable energy production, are making the production of low-carbon hydrogen in the region among the most competitive in the world Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman are driving the momentum for low carbon hydrogen Aspirations to become an export hub of low-carbon h