ESG&电新&公用：电力系统调节能力不足，电网调峰储能和智能化调度能力建设提速-20240301-海通国际-10页.pdf-solarbe文库

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[Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。 Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary 中国新能源装机进度超预期，预计提前 5-6 年完成国家能源局目标。国家能源局 2023 年 1 月 6 日发布的新型电力系统发展蓝皮书（征求意见稿），到 2030 年新能源装机占比超过 40，发电量占比超过 20。我们预计 2024 年风光装机占比将超过 40，提前实现国家能源局目标，发电量方面，到 2025 年底，风电发电量占比为 12.2，光伏占比为 8.75，合计占比 20.96， 2025年达到能源局目标。当前风光装机和发电量增速均超国家能源局预期，预计提前 5-6 年完成国家能源局设定的 2030 年目标。总体弃风弃光率不断降低，三北主要地区风光消纳问题依然严峻。 2016 年以前由于灵活性不足制约新能源消纳的问题尚未得到根本性解决，弃风率在 2016年达到 17.1，弃光率在 2014年高达 10.5。 2016-2018年间，由于新能源发电消纳保障措施的实施和灵活性资源投入的加大，弃风、弃光率逐步回落到 5以下，近几年由于三北地区特高压通道和常规电源建设滞后，部分地区弃风弃光问题依然严峻。根据国家新能源监测预警中心数据， 2023 年全国弃风率为 2.7，弃光率为 2，三北地区分化严重，蒙西、青海和甘肃弃风率依然分别高达 6.8、 5.8和 5，青海、西藏弃光率依然高达 8.6和 22。电力系统调节能力逐年下降， 2024 电力保供将面临较大挑战。 2023 年电源总装机达到 29.2 亿千瓦，同比增长 13.9，其中太阳能装机容量达 6.1 亿千瓦，同比增长 55.2，风电装机容量为 4.4 亿千瓦，同比增长 20.7，根据中电联预测， 2024 年非化石能源发电装机将超过煤电，最高电力负荷高达 14.5 亿千瓦。我们用火电、核电、水电装机容量乘以对应的电力平衡系数，再减去全国用电最高负荷 *（ 1备用率）来测量电力平衡，火电平衡系数取 0.8，水电取丰水期系数 0.8，核电取 0.9，备用率选取 15。经测算，自 2020 年开始，电力平衡缺口不断扩大，从 0.95 亿千瓦下降到 -0.4 亿千瓦，电力系统调节能力逐年下降， 2024 年预计最高用电负荷将创历史记录，电力保供将面临较大压力。与欧美相比，中国调峰性能优异的气电装机占比较低。 2022 年中国气电装机约 1.13 亿千瓦，装机占比仅为 4.4，根据美国能源署数据， 2022 年美国气电装机占比高达 40，根据 Ember 数据，欧洲气电装机占约 20，均远超中国。在灵活性调节性电源中，气电性能优异，相同装机气电相较于常规煤电，最小运行出力降低 30，中国三北地区多为热电联产机组，因此最小出力较高，调峰性能较差，未来构建以新能源为主体的新型电力系统仍需参照德国、美国等欧美国家的新能源发展经验，努力实现新能源的最大化消纳。充分调动 “源 -网 -菏 -储 ”灵活性资源，电网调峰储能和智能化调度能力建设有望提速。源 -网 -荷 -储各环节灵活性资源存在优势互补，灵活性多元提升方案能够兼顾提升效果和经济性，实现电力系统长时间尺度灵活性的整体提升。电源侧方面，大力推进常规煤电和热电联产煤电灵活性改造，覆盖长时间尺度灵活性调节，大力发展抽水蓄能和电化学储能，覆盖短时、中时灵活性；电网侧方面，推动特高压通道建设和柔性直流技术应用，利用跨区输电减轻送端省份新能源消纳压力，加强智能配电网建设更好支撑分布式能源发展，提升新能源的外送消纳和就近消纳水平；负荷侧方面，通过需求响应资源（可中断、可转移负荷）的 “削峰填谷 ”实现负荷曲线优化，降低电力系统调度平衡压力。投资建议建议关注电力运营商企业如【龙源电力】、【华能国际】、【中国电力】、【华润电力】；电力设备企业如【国电南瑞】、【中国西电】、【平高电气】等。风险相关政策不及预期，装机不及预期等。 [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2024 ESG On the power grid side, promote the construction of ultra-high voltage channel and the application of flexible DC technology, use cross-regional transmission to reduce the pressure of new energy consumption in the provinces at the delivery end, strengthen the construction of intelligent distribution network to better support the development of distributed energy, and improve the delivery and consumption level of new energy; on the load side, realize the optimization of load curve through the “peak and valley“ of demand response resources interruptible and transferable load, and reduce the pressure of power system scheduling balance. Investment advice We suggest paying attention to power operators such as [China Longyuan Power Group Corporation], [Huaneng Power International], [China Power International Development], and [ China Resources Power]; Power equipment companies such as [Nari Technology], [China XD Electric], and [Henan Pinggao Electric], etc. Risks Relevant policies are less than expectations, and installed capacity is less than expectations, etc. 4 [Table_disclaimer] 附录 APPENDIX 重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司 HTIRL， Haitong Securities India Private Limited HSIPL， Haitong International Japan K.K. HTIJKK和海通国际证券有限公司 HTISCL的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团 HTISG各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited “HTIRL”, Haitong Securities India Private Limited “HSIPL”, Haitong International Japan K.K. “HTIJKK”, Haitong International Securities Company Limited “HTISCL”, and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies “HTISG”, each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction. HTIRL 分析师认证 Analyst Certification 我，杨斌，在此保证（ i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的 3个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。 I, Bin Yang, certify that i the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and ii no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report; and that I including members of my household have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed. I and my household, whom I have already notified of this, will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the research report is published. 我，余小龙，在此保证（ i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的 3个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。 I, Bruce Yu, certify that i the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and ii no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report; and that I including members of my household have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed. I and my household, whom I have already notified of this, will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the research report is published. 利益冲突披露 Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和 /或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至 ERD-Disclosurehtisec.com） HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and / or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report. As far as this research report is concerned, the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness, please send an email to ERD-Disclosurehtisec.com if timely and comprehensive information is needed. 香港华润集团有限公司上海代表处及中国西电集团有限公司目前或过去 12 个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。香港华润集团有限公司上海代表处 and 中国西电集团有限公司 are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months. The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services. 评级定义（从 2020 年 7月 1日开始执行）海通国际（以下简称 “HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读 HTI的评级定义。并且 HTI 发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级优于大市，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在 10以上，基准定义如下中性，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据 FINRA/NYSE 的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在 10以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数日本 – TOPIX, 韩国 – KOSPI, 台湾 – TAIEX, 印度 – Nifty100, 美国 – SP500; 其他所有中国概念股 – MSCI China. Ratings Definitions from 1 Jul 2020 Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform, Neutral, or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research. In addition, since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst s views, investors should carefully read Haitong International Research, in its 评级分布 Rating Distribution 5 entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings or research should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor s decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor s existing holdings and other considerations. Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Neutral The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Underperform The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Benchmarks for each stock’s listed region are as follows Japan – TOPIX, Korea – KOSPI, Taiwan – TAIEX, India – Nifty100, US – SP500; for all other China-concept stocks – MSCI China. 截至 2023 年 12月 31 日海通国际股票研究评级分布优于大市中性弱于大市持有海通国际股票研究覆盖率 89.4 9.6 1.0 投资银行客户 * 3.9 5.1 5.6 *在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据 FINRA/NYSE 的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义（直至 2020 年 6 月 30 日）买入，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在 10以上，基准定义如下中性，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据 FINRA/NYSE 的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在 10以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数日本 – TOPIX, 韩国 – KOSPI, 台湾 – TAIEX, 印度 – Nifty100; 其他所有中国概念股 – MSCI China. Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of December 31, 2023 Outperform Neutral Underperform hold HTI Equity Research Coverage 89.4 9.6 1.0 IB clients* 3.9 5.1 5.6 *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. 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Benchmarks for each stock’s listed region are as follows Japan – TOPIX, Korea – KOSPI, Taiwan – TAIEX, India – Nifty100; for all other China-concept stocks – MSCI China. 海通国际非评级研究海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。 Haitong International Non-Rated Research Haitong International publishes quantitative, screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples. Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only. 海通国际 A 股覆盖海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国 A 股进行覆盖及评级。海通证券（ 600837.CH），海通国际于上海的母公司，也会于中国发布中国 A 股的研究报告。但是，海通国际使用与海通证券不同的评级系统，所以海通国际与海通证券的中国 A股评级可能有所不同。 Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen. 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