海通国际：9月风电并网4.56GW，同比增长47%.pdf-solarbe文库

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请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_MainInfo] 行业研究 /机械工业 /新能源板块证券研究报告行业信息点评 9 月风电并网 4.56GW，同比增长 47 [Table_Summary] 投资要点  9 月风电并网 4.56GW，同比增加 47.10，环比增加 74.71。国家能源局公众号发布 1-9 月份全国电力工业统计数据。截至 9 月底，全国累计发电装机容量约 27.9 亿千瓦，同比增长 12.3。其中，风电装机容量约 4.0 亿千瓦，同比增长 15.1；太阳能发电装机容量约 5.2 亿千瓦，同比增长 45.3。 1-9 月，风电并网 33.48GW，同比增加 74.01；光伏 1-9 月并网 128.94GW，同比增加 145.13。单 9 月，风电并网 4.56GW，同比增加 47.10，环比增加 74.71；光伏并网 15.78GW，同比增加 94.10，环比降低 1.38。  单 9 月，风电利用小时 127 小时，较上年同期减少 29 小时，较 8 月增加 5 小时。 1-9 月份，全国发电设备累计平均利用 2716 小时，比上年同期减少 83 小时。其中，水电 2367 小时，比上年同期减少 362 小时；太阳能发电 1017 小时，比上年同期减少 45 小时；风电 1665 小时，比上年同期增加 49 小时；核电 5724 小时，比上年同期增加 148 小时；火电 3344 小时，比上年同期增加 49 小时。单 9 月，风电利用小时 127 小时，较上年同期减少 29 小时，较 8 月增加 5 小时；太阳能发电 110 小时，较上年同期减少 7 小时，较 8 月减少 17 小时。  单 9 月，风电投资额 234 亿元，同比增加 11.96，环比增加 23.81。 1-9 月份，全国主要发电企业电源工程完成投资 5538 亿元，同比增长 41.1。其中，核电 589 亿元，同比增长 46.0；太阳能发电 2229 亿元，同比增长 67.8。电网工程完成投资 3287 亿元，同比增长 4.2。风电 1383 亿元，同比增加 33.4。火电 635 亿元，同比增长 16.2。水电 586 亿元，同比增加 9.7。单 9 月，风电投资额 234 亿元，同比增加 11.96，环比增加 23.81；太阳能发电投资额 356 亿元，同比增加 17.49，环比增加 36.40。  单 9 月，风力发电 497.7 亿度，同比下降 1.6。据国家统计局公布的数据， 1-9 月风力发电量 5836.8 亿度，同比增长 13.4；太阳能发电量 2172.9 亿度，同比增长 11.3；核能发电 3227.9 亿度，同比增长 6.0；水力发电量 8583.9 亿度，同比下降 10.1；火力发电 46396.9 亿度，同比增长 5.8。单 9 月，风力发电 497.7 亿度，同比下降 1.6；太阳能发电量 246.1 亿度，同比增长 6.8；核能发电 345.3 亿度，同比增长 6.7；水力发电量 1393.8 亿度，同比增长 39.2；火力发电量 4973.0 亿度，同比增长 2.3。  国家能源局组织开展可再生能源发展试点示范项目，重点支持单机 15 兆瓦海上机型应用。 10 月 18 日，国家能源局发布组织开展可再生能源发展试点示范的通知，通知要求，主要支持大容量风电机组由近（海）及远（海）应用，重点探索新型漂浮式基础、 ±500 千伏及以上电压等级柔性直流输电、单机 15 兆瓦及以上大容量风电机组等技术应用，并推动海上风电运维数字化、智能化发展。文件还提出，主要支持海上风能资源和建设条件好的区域，结合海上风电基地建设，融合深远海风电技术示范，通过规模开发、设计优化、产业协同等措施，推动深远海海域海上风电项目降低工程造价、经济性提升和实现无补贴平价上网。深远海海上风电平价示范项目单体规模不低于 100 万千瓦。  建议关注泰胜风能、中天科技、东方电缆、海力风电、大金重工、亨通光电、金雷股份、日月股份、起帆电缆、天能重工、金盘科技、长盛轴承、五洲新春、运达股份、三一重能、明阳智能、金风科技。  风险提示原材料价格上涨，竞争加剧，行业政策波动，风电装机不及预期。行业研究· 新能源板块行业请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2 图 1 火力发电量及其占比资料来源国家统计局官网， HTI 图 2 水力发电量及其占比资料来源国家统计局官网， HTI 图 3 风力发电量及其占比资料来源国家统计局官网， HTI 图 4 太阳能发电量及其占比资料来源国家统计局官网， HTI 行业研究· 新能源板块行业请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 3 APPENDIX 1 Summary Investment Key Points September saw a 47.10 YoY increase and 74.71 MoM growth in wind power grid connection, reaching 4.56GW. China’s installed power generation capacity rose by 12.3 YoY to 2.79 billion kW by end-Sept. Wind power installed capacity stood around 0.4 billion kW - up 15.1 YoY and solar power reached around 0.52 billion kW - up 45.3 YoY. Wind power grid connections rose by 74.01 to 33.48GW while solar power reached 128.94GW, up 145.13. Wind power output was 23.4 billion RMB in Sept, up 11.96 YoY. Overall energy investment reached 553.8 billion RMB in Jan-Sept, up 41.1 YoY. Wind power utilization hours were 127 in Sept, 29 hours fewer compared to last year but 5 hours more than August. Total power generation use averaged 2716 hours in Jan-Sept, down 83 hours from last year. Wind power’s annual output dropped by 1.6 to 49.77 billion kWh in Sept. Data shows wind power production was 583.68 billion kWh in Jan-Sept. The National Energy Administration is focusing on renewable energy development with a focus on offshore wind power. Top picks may include Taisheng Wind Energy, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable among others. Risks include raw material price inflation, increased competition, policy fluctuations, and underperforming wind power installations. 1 [Table_disclaimer] 附录 APPENDIX 重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司 HTIRL， Haitong Securities India Private Limited HSIPL， Haitong International Japan K.K. HTIJKK和海通国际证券有限公司 HTISCL的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团 HTISG各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited “HTIRL”, Haitong Securities India Private Limited “HSIPL”, Haitong International Japan K.K. “HTIJKK”, Haitong International Securities Company Limited “HTISCL”, and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies “HTISG”, each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction. HTIRL 分析师认证 Analyst Certification 我，吴杰，在此保证（ i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的 3个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。 I, Jie Wu, certify that i the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and ii no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report; and that I including members of my household have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed. I and my household, whom I have already notified of this, will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 3 business days after the research report is published. 利益冲突披露 Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和 /或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至 ERD-Disclosurehtisec.com） HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and / or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report. As far as this research report is concerned, the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness, please send an email to ERD-Disclosurehtisec.com if timely and comprehensive information is needed. 600522.CH, 603667.CH 及 002202.CH 目前或过去 12个月内是海通的客户。海通向客户提供非投资银行业务的证券相关业务服务。 600522.CH, 603667.CH and 002202.CH are/were a client of Haitong currently or within the past 12 months. The client has been provided for non-investment-banking securities-related services. 海通在过去的 12个月中从 002202.CH 获得除投资银行服务以外之产品或服务的报酬。 Haitong has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from 002202.CH. 评级定义（从 2020 年 7月 1日开始执行）海通国际（以下简称 “HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读 HTI的评级定义。并且 HTI 发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。分析师股票评级优于大市，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在 10以上，基准定义如下中性，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据 FINRA/NYSE 的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在 10以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数日本 – TOPIX, 韩国 – KOSPI, 台湾 – TAIEX, 印度 – Nifty100, 美国 – SP500; 其他所有中国概念股 – MSCI China. Ratings Definitions from 1 Jul 2020 Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform, Neutral, or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research. In addition, since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst s views, investors should carefully read Haitong International Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings or research should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor s decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on 评级分布 Rating Distribution 2 individual circumstances such as the investor s existing holdings and other considerations. Analyst Stock Ratings Outperform The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Neutral The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Underperform The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Benchmarks for each stock’s listed region are as follows Japan – TOPIX, Korea – KOSPI, Taiwan – TAIEX, India – Nifty100, US – SP500; for all other China-concept stocks – MSCI China. 截至 2023 年 9月 30日海通国际股票研究评级分布优于大市中性弱于大市持有海通国际股票研究覆盖率 89.3 1.1 9.6 投资银行客户 * 3.9 5.8 10.0 *在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据 FINRA/NYSE 的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。此前的评级系统定义（直至 2020 年 6 月 30 日）买入，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在 10以上，基准定义如下中性，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据 FINRA/NYSE 的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。卖出，未来 12-18 个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在 10以上，基准定义如下各地股票基准指数日本 – TOPIX, 韩国 – KOSPI, 台湾 – TAIEX, 印度 – Nifty100; 其他所有中国概念股 – MSCI China. Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of September 30, 2023 Outperform Neutral Underperform hold HTI Equity Research Coverage 89.3 1.1 9.6 IB clients* 3.9 5.8 10.0 *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. BUY, Neutral, and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above. Previous rating system definitions until 30 Jun 2020 BUY The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. NEUTRAL The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rati ng category. SELL The stock’s total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Benchmarks for each stock’s listed region are as follows Japan – TOPIX, Korea – KOSPI, Taiwan – TAIEX, India – Nifty100; for all other China-concept stocks – MSCI China. 海通国际非评级研究海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。 Haitong International Non-Rated Research Haitong International publishes quantitative, screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples. 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