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Ali Hasanbeigi, Ph.D. - Global Efficiency Intelligence Lynn A. Kirshbaum and Blaine Collison - David Gardiner and Associates Industrial Electrification in U.S. States An industrial subsector and state-level techno-economic analysis February 2023 1 Industrial Electrification in U.S. States Foreword by the authors This report is a follow-up study to our previous report, “Electrifying U.S. Industry A Technology- and Process-Based Approach to Decarbonization.” In the previous report, we studied the electrification potential for U.S. industry across 12 sub-sectors at the national level. In this report, we analyze the electrification potential for the same 12 sub-sectors, but at the state level, focusing on 20 states. The differences in industries, energy prices, and electricity grid emissions factors across different states are considered in this study to determine the electrification potential. Acknowledgements This report was made possible with support from the ClimateWorks Foundation. The authors would like to thank Rebecca Dell, Dan Fahey, and Lauren Marshall of the ClimateWorks Foundation, Claire Dougherty and David Gardiner of David Gardiner and Associates, Jibran Zuberi of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Ed Rightor of ACEEE, Colin McMillan of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Sara Baldwin of Energy Innovation, and John Marano of JM Energy Consulting for their valuable input to this study and/or their insightful comments on earlier versions of this document. Disclaimer Global Efficiency Intelligence, LLC and David Gardiner and Associates have provided the information in this publication for informational purposes only. Although great care has been taken to maintain the accuracy of the information collected and presented, Global Efficiency Intelligence, LLC and David Gardiner and Associates do not make any express or implied warranty concerning such information. Any estimates contained in the publication reflect Global Efficiency Intelligence, LLC’s and David Gardiner and Associates’ current analyses and expectations based on available data and information. Any reference to a specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or imply an endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by Global Efficiency Intelligence, LLC and David Gardiner and Associates. The report does not necessarily represent the perspectives of all Renewable Thermal Collaborative RTC members or sponsors. An organization’s participation in this project does not represent an endorsement of the full contents of this report. This document may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgment is requested. https//www.globalefficiencyintel.com https//www.renewablethermal.org 2 Industrial Electrification in U.S. States The United States set an economy-wide target to reduce its net greenhouse gas GHG emissions to 50-52 below 2005 levels by 2030 and set a goal to reach 100 carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035. Meeting these goals will require a concentrated effort to develop and deploy clean technologies across sectors. The U.S.’s emissions reduction targets place a new emphasis on industrial emissions, highlighting the need for commercialization and deployment of cleaner industrial technologies. Unleashing US369 billion in climate and clean energy incentives, the Inflation Reduction Act IRA provides powerful tailwinds for achieving these climate change mitigation targets. The industrial sector accounts for about a quarter of energy use and GHG emissions in the U.S. While emissions from electricity generation continue to decline, thermal energy needs in industry, especially for process heating, are a significant challenge for climate change mitigation efforts. There is a significant opportunity to decarbonize the industrial sector by shifting away from carbon-intensive fossil fuels to clean sources such as electrification, where low- or zero-car- bon electricity is used. As can be seen in Figure ES1, electrifying just the processes included in the study has the potential to realize significant emissions reductions throughout the country. Figure ES1. Change in emissions from select industrial process electrification in 2050 Source this study This report is a follow-up study to our previous report, “Electrifying U.S. Industry A Technology- and Process-Based Approach to Decarbonization.” In the previous report, we studied industrial electrification potential at the national level. In this report, we analyze the electrification potential for 12 industries aluminum casting, pulp and paper, container glass, ammonia, methanol, recycled plastic, steel, beer, beet sugar, milk powder, wet corn milling, and soybean oil in 20 states. The industries with the highest emissions reduction potential in each state are shown in Figure ES2. Executive Summary 3 Industrial Electrification in U.S. States Figure ES2. Industries with the highest emissions reduction potential from electrification in 2050 Source this study The report identifies specific processes that could be electrified in the near term with commercially available technologies and analyzes the expected changes in energy use, CO 2 emissions, and energy costs. Understanding which conventional processes could be electrified and how this impacts emissions and costs can help industrial facilities identify which of their processes may be suitable candidates for electrification. In addition, understanding the potential growth in industrial electricity demand that will result from electrification can help utilities, grid operators, and electricity generators plan for these changes and ensure equipment and generation resources are available to meet the growing demand for renewable electricity. It should be noted that, in practice, electrification projects will happen at the plant level. If a given industrial facility in any state electrifies its process heating demand today and purchases renewable electricity e.g., through a power purchase agreement PPA to supply the electricity demand of the electrified process heating, the CO 2 emissions reductions from elec- trification can be achieved immediately. Therefore, our state-level results that are based on expected grid-wide decarbonization timelines should not over-ride the immediate decarbon- ization impact of an electrified plant partnered with a new renewable energy purchase. Plants do not need to wait until the grid is decarbonized to have emissions reduction impacts. Emissions reductions have global benefits, helping to mitigate climate risks and climate change impacts around the world. But reducing emissions has local benefits too. When industrial facilities use fossil fuels on-site, surrounding communities can be impacted by the resulting air pollution. In the U.S., low-income communities are often exposed to higher levels of air pollution in urban and rural areas, and in all states. Industrial electrification offers an opportunity to reduce localized emissions and improve health outcomes for communities. Electrifying industrial processes and realizing these benefits will require a multifaceted effort to solve significant challenges in renewable electricity generation and transmission, technology development and deployment, and workforce development. This report recommends six impactful changes that would support increased industrial electrification 1 Support demonstration of emerging electrification technologies and new applications of existing technologies, 2 Financially incentivize electrification, 3 Increase renewable electricity generation capacity, 4 Enhance the electricity grid, 5 Engage communities, and 6 Develop the workforce. 4 Industrial Electrification in U.S. States Executive summary 2 1. Introduction 5 1.0. The industrial thermal energy challenge 5 1.1. The electrification opportunity 6 1.2. A sector- and state-specific analysis 7 2. U.S. industrial energy use and heat consumption profile 8 3. State-level industrial electrification potential 11 3.0. Methodology 11 3.1. Aluminum casting industry 16 3.2. Pulp and paper industry 20 3.3. Container glass industry 24 3.4. Ammonia industry 28 3.5. Methanol industry 32 3.6. Plastic recycling industry 35 3.7. Steel industry 38 3.8. Beer industry 44 3.9. Beet sugar industry 47 3.10. Milk powder industry 50 3.11. Wet corn milling industry 53 3.12. Soybean oil industry 58 3.13. Total energy savings and CO 2 emissions reduction potential 62 4. Industrial electrification’s impact on the electricity grid 65 4.0. The U.S. electricity grid 65 4.1. Industrial electrification’s electricity grid impacts 66 5. Industrial electrification co-benefits 68 5.0. What are co-benefits 68 5.1. Improving air quality and health outcomes 69 5.2. Controlling costs 69 5.3. Ensuring equitable realization of co-benefits 69 5.4. Analyzing near-term benefits 70 6. Recommendations to accelerate industrial electrification 72 References 76 Appendices 80 Appendix 1. Industrial electrification technologies 80 Appendix 2. Industrial electrification technologies’ benefits and challenges 83 Appendix 3. Base year and projected industrial energy prices 85 Table of Contents 5 Industrial Electrification in U.S. States The United States set an economy-wide target to reduce its net greenhouse gas GHG emissions to 50-52 below 2005 levels by 2030 and set a goal to reach 100 carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035. UNFCCC 2021. Meeting these goals will require a concentrated effort to develop and deploy clean technologies across sectors. The electricity generation and transportation sectors have benefitted from two decades of supportive policies for and investments in technology research and development, while similar support for the industrial sector has lagged behind. The U.S.’s emissions reduction targets place a new emphasis on industrial emissions, highlighting the need for commercialization and deployment of cleaner technologies. Unleashing US369 billion in climate and clean energy incentives, the Inflation Reduction Act IRA provides powerful tailwinds for achieving these climate change mitigation targets. Industrial electrification offers a pathway to decarbonize numerous industrial thermal processes. Further renewable electricity deployment reduces grid emissions factors across the country, creating a near-term opportunity to reduce industrial thermal emissions through electrification. This report identifies specific industrial thermal processes that could be electrified, many with commercially available technologies. 1.0. The Industrial Thermal Energy Challenge Industrial thermal energy needs, especially for heat, are a significant challenge for climate change mitigation efforts. Heat represents two-thirds of all energy demand in the industrial sector IEA 2018a. However, only 10 of this demand is met using renewable energy OECD/ IEA 2014. In the United States, due in large part to the country’s relatively inexpensive natural gas, fossil fuel combustion to produce heat and steam used for process heating, reactions, evaporation, concentration, and drying creates about 52 of the country’s industrial direct GHG emissions McMillan 2017. Despite industrial thermal’s significant contributions to global energy demand and GHG emissions, scalable, cost-effective solutions to address thermal energy emissions from the process and other on-site heating and cooling needs are not widely available. This is contrasted with the transportation and power sectors, where available renewable electricity, electric vehicles, and new mobility strategies reflect important progress over the past two decades. Renewable thermal energy solutions, including electrification solutions, face many technology, market, and policy barriers that hinder their development and deployment at scale, as described in our prior report Hasanbeigi et al. 2021. Thermal energy faces several unique challenges when compared with renewable electricity. Thermal needs vary tremendously from one industrial process to another and are often site- or sector-specific. Processes also require heat at widely different temperatures, and solutions for high-tempera- ture processes differ greatly from low-temperature processes. Many industrial thermal energy buyers have set for themselves ambitious, science-based emissions reduction targets, recognizing the urgent need to reduce emissions not only from electricity generation but also from thermal energy consumption. But meeting these individual goals, as well as the nation’s emissions reduction goals, will prove challenging without further development and deployment of emissions-reducing technologies. Introduction 1 6 Industrial Electrification in U.S. States 1.1. The Electrification Opportunity There is a significant opportunity to decarbonize the industrial sector by shifting heat produc- tion away from carbon-intensive fossil fuels to clean sources such as electrification, where low- or zero-carbon electricity is used. Globally, more than 50 of the final energy demand is for heating, and about half is for industrial heating IEA 2018b. There is substantial unrealized potential to electrify industrial processes at low and medium temperatures. Some industries have also electrified high-temperature processes, such as the steel industry using electric arc furnaces. However, much of the electrification discussion to date has focused on the transportation and building sectors, with little attention paid to the industrial sector. This report aims to fill some of that void by examining industrial subsectors’ heat consumption profiles and electrification potential based on existing heat demand profiles and electrification technologies available to meet those heating needs. The report identifies specific processes that could be electrified in the near term with commercially available technologies and analyzes the expected changes in energy use, CO 2 emissions,