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Can Federal Efforts Help Build Economic Resilience in New Mexico’s Oil and Gas Communities A Can Federal Efforts Help Build Economic Resilience in New Mexico’s Oil and Gas Communities Daniel Raimi and Zach Whitlock Report 23-11 August 2023 Resources for the Future i About the Authors Daniel Raimi is a fellow at Resources for the Future RFF and a lecturer at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. He works on a range of energy policy issues with a focus on tools to enable an equitable energy transition. He has published in academic journals including Science, Science Advances, Environmental Science and Technology, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Energy Research and Social Science, and Energy Policy and in popular outlets including The New Republic, Newsweek, Slate, and Fortune. He has presented his research for policymakers, industry, and other stakeholders around the United States and internationally, including before the Energy and Mineral Resources Subcommittee of the US House’s Natural Resources Committee. In 2017, he published The Fracking Debate Columbia University Press, a book that combines stories from his travels to dozens of oil- and gas-producing regions with a detailed examination of key policy issues. Zach Whitlock is a research analyst at RFF. He graduated from the University of Pennsylvania in 2020 with a B.S.E. in Materials Science and Engineering and a B.A. in Earth Science. He then earned his MPhil in Environmental Policy from the University of Cambridge, where his dissertation focused on tracking trends in the climate change discourse of environmental lobbying organizations. Before Cambridge, his research interests lay at the intersection of materials engineering and environmental stewardship. Prior to joining RFF, he covered recent developments in voluntary ESG and climate initiatives for Longview Global Advisors. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the staff of Senator Martin Heinrich, in particular Anaïs Borja and Edward Tabet-Gubero, who provided logistical support and contacts for this work. Thank you to Chelcie Henry-Robertson of Environmental Defense Fund, Briana Lyssy of BakerHughes, Monika Ehrman of Southern Methodist University, and Andrew Curley of the University of Arizona for participating in stakeholder meetings in New Mexico. Above all, we are grateful for the time and expertise shared with us by the dozens of stakeholders who allowed us to interview them for this research. We hope that this work, and future research, supports their efforts to build economic resilience in their communities. A full list of meeting participants can be found in Appendix A of this report. Funding for this analysis was provided by Environmental Defense Fund and by Resources for the Future’s Equity in the Energy Transition initiative. Can Federal Efforts Help Build Economic Resilience in New Mexico’s Oil and Gas Communities ii About RFF Resources for the Future RFF is an independent, nonprofit research institution in Washington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resource decisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF is committed to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policy solutions leading to a healthy environment and a thriving economy. The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from those of other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors. Sharing Our Work Our work is available for sharing and adaptation under an Attribution- NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. You can copy and redistribute our material in any medium or format; you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made, and you may not apply additional restrictions. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. You may not use the material for commercial purposes. If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you may not distribute the modified material. For more information, visit https//creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Resources for the Future iii Abstract Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are projected to reduce demand for oil and natural gas, creating economic risks for the hundreds of communities and hundreds of thousands of workers who depend on those industries. However, very little research has sought to identify policy options for building economic resilience in oil- and gas-producing communities. In this analysis, we use semistructured interviews with stakeholders in New Mexico’s oil- and gas-producing regions to understand how the federal government can support local efforts to strengthen economic diversification. We find that although local stakeholders are generally skeptical of the federal government, they would be receptive to federal support. However, numerous challenges stand in the way of effective federal intervention, including insufficient capacity to access and administer federal grants, barriers to economic development on federal lands, and disagreements among stakeholders about certain energy technologies, particularly carbon capture. In addition, it is not clear which economic sectors might replace the high-paying jobs and substantial tax revenues generated by oil and gas development. Our interviews indicate that building economic resilience in the state’s oil and gas communities will be challenging, and require early, substantive, and ongoing engagement with a wide range of local stakeholders to ensure that federal resources support local priorities. Can Federal Efforts Help Build Economic Resilience in New Mexico’s Oil and Gas Communities iv Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. Background and Context 2 2.1. History of Oil and Gas Development in New Mexico 3 2.1.1. The San Juan and Permian Basins 4 2.1.2. The Economic and Fiscal Importance of Oil and Gas in New Mexico 6 2.1.3. State Efforts to Build Economic Resilience in the Energy Transition 6 2.1.4. Federal Efforts to Build Economic Resilience in the Energy Transition 7 3. Methods 8 4. Key Findings 9 4.1. San Juan Basin 10 4.2. Permian Basin 12 4.3. Statewide Issues 13 5. Conclusion 14 6. References 15 Appendix New Mexico Stakeholder Interviews 19 Can Federal Efforts Help Build Economic Resilience in New Mexico’s Oil and Gas Communities 1 1. Introduction In 2022, the United States was the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, with New Mexico accounting for 13 and 6 percent of domestic production, respectively EIA 2023. Although researchers and policymakers have paid considerable attention to the economic transition of energy communities after coal plant and coal mine closures, far less attention has been paid to the oil and gas sector, which currently plays a much larger role in the US economy. Although US oil and gas production is at or near all-time highs nationally and in New Mexico, scholars and practitioners focused on the local economic challenges of energy transitions emphasize the importance of building economic resilience well before a prolonged downturn causes irreparable damage Haggerty et al. 2018; Just Transition Fund 2020; Look et al. 2021. Long-term projections of global energy demand indicate that even under scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, oil and natural gas will continue to play an important role in the energy system for at least 10 to 20 years Raimi et al. 2023. However, building economic diversity in oil- and gas-producing regions will likely require years, if not decades, of planning and investment, suggesting the need to develop strategies as soon as possible. The purpose of our analysis is to begin this process by identifying the challenges and opportunities facing oil- and gas-producing communities as they seek to build economic resilience in the face of an uncertain economic future. To gather this information, we traveled to two major oil- and gas-producing regions in New Mexico and interviewed a wide range of stakeholders over one week. Our results are one of many inputs that will be needed to develop policies at the federal level that can mitigate the negative consequences of a turn away from fossil fuels. Although the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and several other federal efforts have begun targeting federal economic support to communities that are heavily dependent on fossil fuels, we believeand our interview results revealthat these efforts represent only the beginning of a process that demands sustained engagement between federal agencies and local stakeholders. The remainder of this report proceeds as follows. First, we provide historical context for oil and gas development in the Permian and San Juan basin regions of New Mexico, along with summaries of state-level policies that have shaped the course of economic diversification and energy transition. In the second section, we describe the methods for our semistructured interviews with stakeholders. Finally, we synthesize the takeaways from those conversations to inform federal policymaking for economic resilience in the energy transition. Resources for the Future 2 2. Background and Context New Mexico has a long history of natural resource development. Ancient Puebloan cultures distributed turquoise across trade routes that included parts of New Mexico, California, Nevada, and Colorado for perhaps more than 1,000 years Hull et al. 2014, and the region’s Hopi people used coal for household heating and pottery production for hundreds of years prior to European colonization Freese 2003, 112. In the 1500s, early Spanish colonists pursued illusory troves of previous metals in the area Ferguson et al. 1985. Commercial oil and natural gas production, however, came much later, and was centered in the San Juan and Permian basins Figure 1. Figure 1. New Mexico’s San Juan and Permian Basins, Select Native American Reservations, and Cities Source Map by authors Albuquerque Hobbs Carlsbad Dulce Aztec Farmington Navajo Nation reservation and off-reservation trust land Jicarilla Apache Nation San Juan basin Permian basin Chaco Culture National Historic Park Can Federal Efforts Help Build Economic Resilience in New Mexico’s Oil and Gas Communities 3 2.1. History of Oil and Gas Development in New Mexico Oil production began in the San Juan basin in the early 1920s. New Mexico’s first commercial well was drilled in 1922 on the Navajo Nation, roughly 20 miles west of Farmington, after the Navajo Nation Council, which was established in part by the Department of Interior for the express purpose of approving leases, agreed to the activity Curley 2023, 48. 1 Two years later, new wells at Rattlesnake Dome, also on the Navajo Nation, ushered in a more prolific era of production. In subsequent years, the federal government and the Navajo Nation would dispute revenue-sharing arrangements Holtby 2013, 79, foreshadowing a long history of problems related to federal mismanagement of tribal resources Grogan et al. 2011. By the late 1920s, oil production began in the southeastern corner of New Mexico as oil companies moved from the Texas to the New Mexico side of the Permian basin, spending a then-unprecedented sum of 15 million to 18 million on exploration in a single year Modisett 2009. The flat desert plain posed challenges for companies, whose geologists often interpreted surface features to determine promising drilling locations Wells 2017. In 1928, State No. 1 well came in, an event widely considered “the most important single discovery of oil in New Mexico’s history” Wells 2013. In the following years, production surged in the New Mexico Permian. Indeed, the city of Hobbs was briefly the fastest-growing town in the United States Clampitt 2008. Even through the Great Depression, the industry grew rapidly the market value of oil tripled from 1932 to 1942 NMMA 2012. From the early 1940s to 1970, oil production from the San Juan and Permian basins tripled, from roughly 40 million to more than 120 million barrels per year; natural gas production increased by a factor of 5 Brister and Price 2002, 3. Gas output continued to grow over the following decades, but oil production peaked in the 1970s and began to decline, mirroring national trends Brister and Price 2002, 2. Although we do not focus on New Mexico’s long history of coal, uranium, or other mining activities in this analysis, it is important to understand how they have shaped perceptions of extractive industries. In particular, decades of neglect and mismanagement related to uranium mining in and around the Navajo Nation during the mid-20th century caused extensive environmental and health harms, including widespread exposure to high concentrations of radon gas in poorly ventilated mines and mismanagement of mining waste Roscoe et al. 1995; Gilliland et al. 2000; RECP 2002. This legacy, in turn, has contributed to antagonisms between regional, tribal, and federal officials Brugge and Goble 2002. In the 1970s, as global oil prices skyrocketed primarily because of events in the Middle East, federal energy policy that sought to exploit the vast fossil fuel resources of the Four Corners region became an organizing political force in New Mexico and elsewhere in the Intermountain West Griffith 1974. In response to Washington’s crisis-era energy planning, negotiated with little or no consultation with states, 10 western governors formed the Western Governors’ Association, whose Regional Policy Office identified legal tools available to develop energy resources at their own pace Lamm 1975. Similarly, leaders of 25 Native nations organized the Council of Energy Resource Tribes, which helped reform federal 1 See Holtby 2013, 78–81 for a detailed account of the formation of the Navajo Nation Council. Resources for the Future 4 policy so that tribes could exert more control over mineral development and be better compensated for energy production occurring on their reservations Ambler 1990; Royster 1994; Black 2018. In the 1980s, as oil prices crashed and the domestic energy crisis faded, pressure to develop the state’s resourcesparticularly oil and natural gaseased. 2.1.1. The San Juan and Permian Basins Over roughly the past 30 years, both the San Juan and Permian basins have seen drilling booms. In the 1990s, new technologies enabled the rapid growth of coalbed methane production, sending natural gas production in the San Juan basin surging from essentially zero to more than 3 billion cubic feet per day by the late 1990s. During that time, the mining sector grew to account for almost half of the region’s economic output. However, as Figure 2 illustrates, this boom faded relatively quickly as natural gas production shifted to more profitable plays exploiting “tight” gas and shale gas formations i