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Distributing Carbon Revenues from Shipping 1 Distributing Carbon Revenues from Shipping© 2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 T elephone 202-473-1000; internet www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. 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Cover and design RRD GO Creative This document is version 1.0 from 15 June 2023.T able of contents Acknowledgments 05 Abbreviations . 06 Executive Summary . 07 1 Introduction . 10 2 Highlighting key options to spend carbon revenues 15 3 Spending carbon revenues on maritime transport and beyond 21 3.1 Maximizing climate outcomes .23 3.2 Supporting an equitable transition .25 3.2.1 Fleet upgrades and renewal .25 3.2.2 Zero-carbon bunker fuels and infrastructure support .28 3.2.3 Maritime transport infrastructure and services enhancement .29 3.2.4 Capacity and skills de velopment . 30 3.2.5 Broader climate aims mitigation and adaptation 31 3.3 Conclusion .32 4 Prioritizing carbon revenue recipients.33 4.1 Developing countries as primary recipients 35 4.2 Additional support for selected developing countries like SIDS and LDCs . 36 4.3 Developed countries as complementary recipients 37 4.4 Conclusion 38 5 Developing a distribution framework . 39 5.1 Three levers to operationalize the distribution framework . 41 5.1.1 Recipient lever . 41 5.1.2 Use lever 42 5.1.3 Financing terms lever .43 5.2 Three funding windows to access carbon revenues 45 5.2.1 Window A Exclusive access, broad use .45 5.2.2 Window B Broader access, narrower use .46 5.2.3 Window C Open access, narrow use 47 5.3 Practical way forward 48 5.4 Conclusion .49 6 Conclusions 50 7 Bibliography 53Boxes Box 1.1 Potential level of a carbon price and the amount of revenues generated 13 Box 2.1 Addressing disproportionately negative impacts on States . 20 Figures Figure E.1 Possible distribution framework for carbon revenues from international shipping 9 Figure 2.1 Carbon revenue use options . 17 Figure 2.2 Key carbon revenue use options and examples.18 Figure 3.1 Global share of flag registration, vessel ownership and shipbuilding volume by country group 26 Figure 3.2 Landlocked developing countries and their development status 29 Figure 5.1 Possible distribution framework for carbon revenues from international shipping . 40 Figure 5.2 Economies by development status and income groups 43 T ables Table 2.1 Key carbon revenue use options and specific examples 19Distributing Carbon Revenues from Shipping 5 Acknowledgments The preparation of this report was led by the World Bank, based on expert input from Dublin City University, School of Law and Government. The World Bank team responsible for this report was led by Dominik Englert, and comprised Sotiria Lagouvardou, Isabelle Rojon and Rico Salgmann. The Dublin City University team was led by Goran Dominioni and comprised Cáit Gleeson. The peer reviewers were Joseph Pryor and Christophe de Gouvello from the World Bank as well as Jan Hoffmann of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD. Additional valuable feedback and perspectives were provided by Aly Shaw and Tristan Smith both University College London as well as Sara Åhlén Björk, Daniel Barcarolo, Jan Otto de Kat, Christoffer Lythcke-Elberling, Jan-Christoph Napierski and Aixa Pérez all Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping. The World Bank team would like to express its appreciation to Nicolas Peltier, Binyam Reja and Richard Martin Humphreys at the World Bank for their expert guidance and constructive suggestions during the development of this report. The team is particularly grateful to Smriti Anund of RRD GO Creative and Jonathan Davidar of the World Bank for their dedication to the visual communication design of this work. Special thanks to Simona Sulikova of the World Bank for her instant feedback during the development of this report. Funding for this report was provided by the World Bank’s Transport Global Practice and PROBLUE, an umbrella multi-donor trust fund, administered by the World Bank that supports the sustainable and integrated development of marine and coastal resources in healthy oceans.Distributing Carbon Revenues from Shipping 6 Abbreviations CBDR-RC Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities CO 2 .Carbon Dioxide DNI Disproportionately Negative Impacts GCF .Green Climate Fund GDP .Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GT .Gross T onnage IMO .International Maritime Organization IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISWG-GHG .Intersessional Working Group on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships LDCs Least Developed Countries LLDCs Landlocked Developing Countries MEPC Marine Environment Protection Committee SIDS Small Island Developing States UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNFCCC .United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeDistributing Carbon Revenues from Shipping 7 Executive summary Carbon pricing in international shipping can help reduce GHG emissions and generate significant carbon revenues. Many shipping stakeholders are advocating for the adoption of a revenue-raising market-based measure as part of a basket of measures to reduce GHG emissions from ships. Such measures could take the form of a carbon levy, including different levy designs such as feebates, or an emissions trading scheme. Modeling estimates indicate that a market-based measure in international shipping could raise between 1 trillion and 3.7 trillion by 2050. This would correspond to an annual average of 40 billion to 60 billion between 2025 and 2050. As IMO stakeholders are deliberating how carbon revenues could be used, three notable use options appear most aligned with key considerations. Submissions to the IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee MEPC and the Intersessional Working Group on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships ISWG-GHG discuss how carbon revenues could be used, managed, and governed. Previous World Bank analysis distinguished seven potential carbon revenue use options and assessed their alignment with the Initial IMO GHG Strategy, selected principles, and desirable features. Using carbon revenues to decarbonize shipping, enhance maritime transport infrastructure and capacity, and support broader climate aims appeared most aligned compared to alternative spending options. While the first two options directly relate to maritime transport, financing broader climate aims, by contrast, would imply spending funds beyond maritime transport. This report discusses how these three key use options for carbon revenues can be considered within a distribution framework that aims to maximize climate outcomes and support an equitable transition. While a revenue-raising market-based measure can yield significant GHG emissions reductions, it can also help address the equity concerns of many IMO Member States. In that light, and building on previous analysis, this report unpacks the following questions i Should spending revenues beyond maritime transport be further considered ii Which country groups should be able to access carbon revenues The report also develops a distribution framework that can deliver both on maximum climate ambition and the need for an equitable transition. Background The International Maritime Organization IMO, the specialized United Nations agency responsible for international shipping, aims to reduce greenhouse gas GHG emissions from the shipping sector. International shipping accounts for approximately three percent of global GHG emissions. The Initial IMO GHG Strategy, adopted in 2018, aims to peak GHG emissions from international shipping as soon as possible, reduce them by at least 50 percent by 2050 over the 2008 levels, while pursuing efforts to phase them out on a pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goals. More ambitious GHG reduction targets are being discussed for inclusion in the revised strategy, which is expected to be finalized in July 2023. The IMO is currently negotiating the policy measures that must be adopted to meet GHG emissions reduction targets. Achieving the sector’s climate targets requires a policy environment that maximizes energy efficiency, supports the uptake of zero-carbon bunker fuels and technologies, and makes them cost-competitive with fossil-based fuels. In line with the Initial IMO GHG Strategy, climate negotiations at the IMO are focused on identifying additional measures “mid-term measures” to reduce GHG emissions from ships. Such measures could materialize as technical standards or market-based measures like carbon pricing instruments.Distributing Carbon Revenues from Shipping 8 Key findings of the report A significant share of carbon revenues needs to be channeled to support shipping’s decarbonization. Decarbonizing international shipping will require trillions of dollars in investments. T o cover these costs to a certain extent, mobilize additional private and public finance, and achieve tipping points as quickly as possible, carbon revenues should be used to finance, scale up, and accelerate the decarbonization of international shipping. Maximizing climate outcomes calls for financing climate action beyond maritime transport. Using a share of carbon revenues to support climate action more broadly can deliver even greater climate outcomes overall as it is unlikely that the most cost-effective opportunities to mitigate or adapt to climate change will all relate to maritime transport alone. There is, therefore, a climate-related case to use a share of carbon revenues beyond maritime transport. 3 4 1 2 An equitable transition can be facilitated by spending carbon revenues beyond maritime transport. Spending carbon revenues exclusively on maritime transport is likely to limit some developing countries’ access to carbon revenues. Some developing countries, including many small island developing states SIDS and least developed countries LDCs, as well as landlocked developing countries LLDCs have limited opportunities to spend carbon revenues on maritime transport. Therefore, using carbon revenues exclusively for maritime transport-related spending appears to be at odds with supporting an equitable transition. Prioritizing developing countries as primary recipients of carbon revenues promotes a more equitable outcome. Developing countries tend to be more vulnerable to climate risks, have less capacity to address them, and have historically contributed less to climate change than many developed countries. Making developing countries the primary recipients of carbon revenues can help close the financing gap between current climate finance flows and their climate financing needs. In addition, carbon revenues can help address potential disproportionately negative impacts on States caused by implementing a climate policy measure in international shipping. Therefore, prioritizing developing countries as primary recipients of carbon revenues could promote a more equitable outcome. Besides, considering developed countries as complementary recipients of carbon revenues can further accelerate international shipping’s decarbonization.Distributing Carbon Revenues from Shipping 9 5 6 Reserving a share of carbon revenues for SIDS and LDCs strengthens their ability to access and use these revenues. Given the frequently reported capacity constraints of many SIDS and LDCs to prepare competitive funding proposals and their vulnerability to climate change, a reserved share of carbon revenues would be an advantage. This will shield them from competition with countries that face lower barriers to accessing climate finance or are less vulnerable to climate change. A revenue distribution framework built around three levers and three funding windows can effectively deliver climate and equity benefits for countries. This report discusses a possible distribution framework for actively managed carbon revenues from international shipping that aims to maximize climate outcomes and to support an equitable transition. Drawing lessons from climate finance and accounting for key considerations of the IMO debate, such a framework can be buil