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Introduction to the challenge ahead Investment to get there Executive summary 1. Low voltage distribution 3. Transmission 2. Transmission- distribution interface Building a GB electricity network ready for net zeroIntroduction to the challenge ahead Investment to get there Executive summary 1. Low voltage distribution 3. Transmission 2. Transmission- distribution interface Contents Introduction to the challenge ahead 9 1. Low voltage distribution preparing for a wave of consumer electrification 2. Transmission-distribution interface connecting onshore renewables and storage 3. Transmission connecting offshore and large-scale generation 16 24 32 Investment to get there 39 Glossary 46 Appendix 47 Executive summary 3 Home Return to the beginning of the document. Glossary Definitions of energy system terms and additional background information. Arrows Click forward and backwards through the document. Sections Click on the titles in the margin to navigate to different sections in the report.Introduction to the challenge ahead Investment to get there Executive summary 1. Low voltage distribution 3. Transmission 2. Transmission- distribution interface Executive summary Transforming the grid is critical to the UK’s energy goals This report sets out the scale of the challenge to upgrade our networks the initiatives underway the key priorities to ensure network infrastructure is not a barrier to net zero Achieving net zero means our electricity network connecting gigawatts of new renewable generation and powering millions of electric vehicles and heat pumps across the country. In recent months the importance of the grid has come into focus as policymakers have recognised that our energy networks are critical infrastructure for the UK’s energy goals. The grid is not broken. We have successfully connected many gigawatts of wind farms, solar farms and batteries, and there is a large pipeline of low carbon projects in development with grid connection agreements. However, reform and investment are urgently needed. Lead times for critical new low carbon projects to connect are now over 15 years. We have delivered rapid growth of electricity system infrastructure before - between 1950 and 1975, electricity generation and grid capacity increased almost five-fold. However, transforming the grid requires a clear strategy and focus on delivery. The key players – Government, Ofgem, the Electricity System Operator and the network operators – have recognised the challenge and set out action plans. These initiatives provide a springboard for action. The key message of this report is that a net zero ready grid is achievable. The priority now is moving from action plans to delivering reform and investment at pace. 3Introduction to the challenge ahead Investment to get there Executive summary 1. Low voltage distribution 3. Transmission 2. Transmission- distribution interface 4 1.1 Networks must invest ahead of increasing demand Network operators have developed plans and initiatives to ensure people can connect. However, they need to step up the pace of change in strategic planning, digitalisation and development of their supply chain. 1.2 Ofgem must provide strategic leadership to enable net zero The regulator has taken a gamble with net zero by cutting distribution network investment plans against draft budgets. They must ensure that the regulatory framework enables networks to invest strategically for net zero. 1.3 Government should commit to electrifying heat and transport It is increasingly clear from the evidence that hydrogen will play a limited role in home heating. However, until the government makes a clear decision, it is difficult for networks to fully plan and invest for the electrification of heating through heat pumps. The transition to net zero will create a wave of consumer electrification as people switch to electric vehicles and heat pumps, the power for which will flow through the low-voltage part of the grid. Upgrading the low-voltage networks to prepare for this increase in electricity demand presents a major challenge. Without sufficient investment, the headroom for new connections at street level will run out. Network operators understand the scale of the challenge of consumer electrification. They have new business plans for 2023-2028 with strategic plans, innovation and increased investment. However, the pace of investment and innovation is not yet fast enough. A sustained commitment from the government, Ofgem and network companies will be necessary to ensure that consumers up and down the country can connect their electric car chargers and install their heat pumps quickly and easily. Low voltage distribution preparing for a wave of consumer electrification Recommendations Readying the networks for heat and transport electrification requires a clear plan and investment 4Introduction to the challenge ahead Investment to get there Executive summary 1. Low voltage distribution 3. Transmission 2. Transmission- distribution interface 2.1 Deliver on investment ahead of need Moving to a grid investment regime that delivers grid developments in coordination with and ahead of new generation connections is critical. The government and Ofgem must deliver on their proposal for “Invest and Connect” and ensure the new Future System Operator is up and running to lead a clear plan for grid investment. 2.2 Reform the connections process Connecting the gigawatts of renewables and storage needed for net zero will not be possible without delivering a streamlined and effective connections process. The ESO and network operators must manage the queue of projects to ensure those able to connect are not blocked and implement a smarter connections process to get gigawatts of generation flowing onto the grid. 2.3 Reform the approach for interaction between transmission and distribution networks The process for assessing how projects connecting at distribution will affect the transmission network is a critical barrier for connecting new generation. The ESO and DNOs need to put in place a new process to resolve transmission barriers to distribution connections resulting in long queues to connect. 5 Recommendations Connecting a large volume of renewable generation and storage projects is critical to decarbonising the power system by 2035. Between 180 and 220 GW of grid-connected power generation capacity will be needed to achieve this. Developers are bringing forward storage and renewable projects at the scale we need, and there is a large pipeline of projects with grid connection agreements. However, new projects are now stuck behind a long queue with transmission system connection lead times of over 15 years. These delays are a major barrier to net zero. The government, system operator and networks have plans to speed up connection timelines – delivering on these is now urgent. Transmission-distribution interface connecting onshore renewables and storage Ending 15-year connection lead times is key to net zeroIntroduction to the challenge ahead Investment to get there Executive summary 1. Low voltage distribution 3. Transmission 2. Transmission- distribution interface 3.1 The Future System Operator needs a clear timeline and remit Establishing the FSO as a public body with a remit to oversee a clear strategic plan for the transmission network is a key step. The government must ensure the FSO is up and running as soon as possible with a clear strategic direction to deliver net zero and the independence and capacity to deliver. 3.2 Ensure the supply chain has sufficient capacity to deliver projects Investment in transmission networks is growing rapidly across the globe. The government, the Future System Operator and transmission network operators need to implement an effective supply chain plan to ensure that transmission projects are not delayed by the supply of critical components or the capacity of the supply chain to deliver. 3.3 Speed up the planning and consenting process The government needs to issue a national planning policy statement on the importance of electricity network infrastructure. This should ensure that net zero is given proper weight in decision-making and that community benefits are delivered in areas hosting critical energy infrastructure. 6 Recommendations The grid will make or break the government’s target to deploy 50 GW of offshore wind by 2030. Investment in transmission capacity is falling behind deployment, leading to costs of managing constraints of over £1bn in 2022. Ofgem has adopted a major policy shift by enabling networks to invest strategically based on a Centralised Strategic Network Plan. The challenge is now delivering the scale of investment required. The government should fully implement the recommendations of Nick Winser, the Electricity Networks Commissioner, to ensure network planning processes and supply chains are fit for purpose for critical transmission investment projects. Transmission connecting offshore and large-scale generation Transmission investment will make or break the 50 GW offshore wind targetIntroduction to the challenge ahead Investment to get there Executive summary 1. Low voltage distribution 3. Transmission 2. Transmission- distribution interface 7 Whole system investment to achieve the transformation The government and Ofgem estimate that £170-210bn will need to be invested in the grid by 2050 to achieve our net zero and energy goals. £70 bn of this is baseline investment. The extra £100-£140bn will unlock massive net zero and energy security benefits for all of us. Significant grid investment is required, but this will deliver value to households 30 35 40 45 50 55 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Average network costs £/MWh Net Zero high demand Net Zero low demand Baseline Source Electricity networks strategic framework Appendix I Figure 13, Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. Lower network costs per unit of electricity By 2050 electricity networks will be providing more value to households by delivering the power we need to heat our homes and get around. Because of this, the cost of the network per unit of energy we use could fall despite the extra investment in the network required. A net energy exporter by 2040 By doubling down on home-generated renewables, Great Britain could turn its net energy import of 725 TWh today into 25 TWh of net export by 2040. Lower cost electricity for consumers Even before the fossil fuel price crisis, the cost of renewables had fallen below that of fossil fuel generation. Fit-for-purpose grid infrastructure and an efficient market will enable customers to benefit from these cost savings. Economic opportunity of the 21 st century Secure, clean energy will provide a foundation for our economy. The government expects green industries will create 480,000 jobs by 2030. As more electricity flows across the networks, investing for net zero will mean lower network costs per unitIntroduction to the challenge ahead Investment to get there Executive summary 1. Low voltage distribution 3. Transmission 2. Transmission- distribution interface Summary There are challenges across the grid 1.1 Networks must invest ahead of increasing demand 1.2 Ofgem must provide strategic leadership to enable net zero 1.3 Government should commit to electrifying heat and transport 2.1 Deliver on investment ahead of need 2.2 Reform the connections process 2.3 Reform the approach for interaction between transmission and distribution networks 3.1 The Future System Operator needs a clear timeline and remit 3.2 Ensure the supply chain has sufficient capacity to deliver projects 3.3 Speed up the planning and consenting process 1. Low voltage distribution preparing for a wave of consumer electrification 2. Transmission- distribution interface connecting onshore renewables and storage 3.Transmission connecting offshore and large-scale generation Recommendations Network Critical challenges Key initiatives Upgrading the low-voltage networks for millions of EVs and heat pumps is a major undertaking. The current network regulatory regime does not provide the framework to support this transformation. A failure to invest strategically in grid capacity means lead times for connecting large renewable and storage projects are over 15 years. Shift in Ofgem’s investment regime so grid capacity is developed ready for new low carbon generation projects to connect ESO’s GB Connections Reform New framework for Accelerated Strategic Transmission Investment ASTI Centralised Strategic Network Plan to be developed by the Future System Operator FSO, a new public body Ofgem has been slow to approve investment in large transmission projects. These projects are inherently challenging with long lead times. Ofgem is consulting on a new regulatory regime Networks are carrying out strategic reinforcement informed by future demand modelling and asset monitoring 8Introduction to the challenge ahead Investment to get there Executive summary 1. Low voltage distribution 3. Transmission 2. Transmission- distribution interface Electricity network infrastructure is critical to net zero and energy security The UK government has committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and shifting from imported fossil fuels to domestic renewables. By 2035, the government aims to have decarbonised the UK’s electricity system. Getting to net zero will increase electricity demand for heat, transport and industrial activities. This increase in demand will be met by greater domestic power generation, interconnectors and energy storage. As a result, generation capacity will increase from about 100 GW to 180-220 GW in 2035. There is a huge pipeline of generation and storage projects with agreements to connect to the grid. However, a failure to invest strategically means network infrastructure is now a significant barrier to our policy goals. The timescale for connecting a new project to the transmission network is now typically over 15 years. The government and Ofgem have recognised the critical role of electricity networks, and extensive changes in our approach to networks are underway. This report aims to set out the scale of the challenge to upgrade our networks the initiatives underway the key priorities to ensure network infrastructure is not a barrier to net zero 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Emissions MtCO 2 e Emissions pathway to a decarbonised power system in 2035 Source Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, Net Zero Strategy. 9Introduction to the challenge ahead Investment to get there Executive summary 1. Low voltage distribution 3. Transmission 2. Transmission- distribution interface Net zero requires a power system transformation Electricity demand will nearly double by 2035 Demand for electricity will increase as it replaces fossil fuels for heating, transport and industrial processes. Whilst some decarbonisation pathways are still to be determined, we