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Australia’s hydrogen tipping point The urgent case to support renewable hydrogen production February 2023 Contents Executive summary 1. Hydrogen’s role in Australia’s future 2. Australia’s role in the global hydrogen market 3. Australia’s competitiveness is at risk 4. Elements of the necessary policy response About us Acknowledgement Disclaimer 4 8 18 26 37 47 47 48 Page 3Australia’s hydrogen tipping point The urgent case to support renewable hydrogen production Executive summary The transition to net zero is ushering in a new economics of comparative advantage and clean manufacturing – the energy-industrial complex reigns supreme. For much of Australia’s post-war industrial history, tyranny of distance, the cost of labour and our small domestic market have worked against our ability to compete as a global industrial powerhouse. But in the transition to a low carbon world, access to renewable energy will become an increasingly important cost driver. Markets and firms that decarbonise their supply chains swiftly and at low cost will rise to the top. This promises new opportunities for Australia, if we act swiftly enough to seize the moment. Our future is not just ours to make, but it is for others to take. As economies around the world embark on the greatest transformation since the industrial revolution, our destiny is one for us to forge, for the things that we can do, with one eye on our global competitors. In the current transformation, the competitive landscape has been radically altered by the comprehensiveness and aggressiveness of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 – on a scale and magnitude which cannot be ignored. The economic race is a transformation of the entire production system of our economy – to generate economic growth and jobs and income, decoupled from high emissions intensity. The transformation begins with the energy which powers our economy – namely a shift towards clean, renewable energy as a reliable, efficient, and effective input into our production systems. It will trigger development of a new energy-industrial complex, which will become a driver of innovation and productivity growth, a determinant of price levels, and a barometer for economic resilience. The acceleration of investment into renewable power is the first enabler of the new energy- industrial complex. Hydrogen has the potential to be a tipping point for Australian manufacturing As the energy fuel mix shifts, particularly towards clean electrification, hydrogen emerges as a significant new component of Australia’s energy needs. This is because hydrogen has the potential to decarbonise ‘hard-to-abate’ industries, such as heavy transport, metals refining and fertiliser production. Australia’s competitive position in renewable hydrogen could tip the playing field back in Australia’s favour as a manufacturing economy by lowering input costs and accelerating agglomeration effects in industrial clusters. Today, Australia stands at a crossroads. We could be on the edge of the precipice of a virtuous cycle where accelerating deployments of renewable electricity and renewable hydrogen unlock clean manufacturing at scale in regional Australia, accelerating our transition, distributing the benefits, and increasing national economic complexity. Yet crossing this tipping point is proving challenging and the clock is ticking because emerging global competitors are moving quickly. This decade matters – hydrogen producers are likely to develop significant and persistent first mover advantages and the USA, Europe and Gulf State producers are entering into a bidding war for market share and dominance The global hydrogen market is expected to deliver significant first mover advantages and positive economic spillover effects driven by long-term contracts. This dynamic is expected to trigger a race to scaled production where innovation drives production down the cost curve. But the economic and commercial benefits of innovation extend beyond technology development and maybe sticky and persistent supply contracts are likely to accrue to the early movers. A delayed start due to low competitiveness could leave Australia with limited opportunities for the hydrogen value chain, a smaller clean energy manufacturing base, forgone labour productivity gains, and a mountain to climb to break into scaled hydrogen production in later years. In turn, this would slow the decarbonisation of Australia’s industrial base, inhibit momentum for regional economic diversification, and delay development of a new tax base. More than this, delay risks forgoing opportunities for low cost renewables and hydrogen to cornerstone the revival of Australian clean manufacturing. Page 5Page 4 Australia’s hydrogen tipping point The urgent case to support renewable hydrogen production Aggressive industrial policies from global competitors will reduce Australia’s renewable hydrogen production – we must respond Despite Australia’s clean energy ambitions, the reality is our global competitiveness is declining. In part this is driven by higher domestic renewable electricity prices than in competitor markets, but it is also driven by decisive policy action in these markets too. The Inflation Reduction Act is the most visible example of this, but the EU, Canada, and a number of Gulf States have also embraced market intervention. We estimate that if Australia does not respond to the Inflation Reduction Act, we could export 65 less hydrogen p.a. by 2050 than before the IRA’s introduction, with scaled production delayed until after 2030. This could mean that renewable hydrogen never reaches a comparable scale with our current fossil fuel exports, with implications for our balance of trade and clean manufacturing aspirations. Industry policy is changing, and Australia must respond. This does not require Australia to blindly follow policy settings in other countries. But it does require careful consideration of what it would take to compete where we have existing advantages, and how we can achieve this at least cost to our economy. We suggest six design principles that should shape a renewed Australian industrial policy including for renewable hydrogen 1. Time bound; surgical intervention focused on critical elements of the value chain 2. Leverage the benefits of competition and shape markets that unambiguously benefit domestic and export objectives 3. Prioritise long-term and sustainable value to drive economic development and provide an economic and social dividend from interventions 4. Government intervention needs to be simple and efficient to implement 5. Reinforce dynamic industrial and service ecosystems 6. Enable place-based just transitions. Swift policy action could ensure Australia’s global competitiveness Our analysis suggests there are substantial differences between policy the levers that Australia could choose to incentivise hydrogen production. Production credits emerge as more efficient at incentivising additional hydrogen production than capital grants or investment tax credits. Our analysis also suggests there is a Goldilocks zone for policy intervention – around a A2/kg hydrogen production credit. This is around half the level of the maximum credit in the IRA for renewable hydrogen, reflecting Australia’s underlying comparative advantages and keeping an eye on fiscal objectives. This would require public investment of A15.5 billion in today’s terms over a decade. If we get it right, Australia would be on track to produce almost 16 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen a year by 2050, with exports worth A17.4 billion a year in today’s terms. Crucially, we would match the decline of our fossil fuel industries with the growth of new clean industries. New industrial policy settings must demonstrate long-term public value Policy settings for hydrogen will need to strike a balance between competitiveness, community expectations, and geostrategic power shifts. We cannot develop a hydrogen and clean manufacturing economy in the way of previous resource booms. This means acknowledging the trade-offs up front and taking an approach which builds out place-based industrial ecosystems and offers support across value chains to maximise value-added economic activity within Australia. The window to act is closing fast Much like carbon, there is a time value of industrial policy. There is a short window for Australia to act and ensure its competitiveness and lay the foundations for a significant new industry. The competition will continue to increase, but without intervention, Australia risks a smaller industry that does not live up to public promises, fails to deliver for regions in transition, and fails to offset declining fossil fuels. Executive summary Page 7Page 6 Australia’s hydrogen tipping point The urgent case to support renewable hydrogen production 1. Hydrogen’s role in Australia’s future The economics of clean manufacturing For much of Australia’s post-war industrial history, our tyranny of distance, labour costs and economies of scale have worked against our ability to compete as a global manufacturing powerhouse. 1 In more recent times, Australian manufacturing has been tied to energy prices, which have remained higher than competitors. 2 As a consequence, our economy has grown less complex, less resilient, and the case for rebuilding a manufacturing base has remained an aspiration. The transition to net zero is altering the structure of national economies. In a transitioning world, manufacturing will remain driven by economies of scale, but access to renewable energy and clean feedstocks will become an increasingly important cost driver and enabler of market access. With significant renewable energy potential, Australia has clear comparative advantages in a low carbon future. This is the logic that underpins aspirations for Australia to become a renewable energy superpower building our capabilities in green metals, fertilisers and renewable energy component value chains. As Exhibit 1 shows, hydrogen will be a key part of Australia’s competitiveness in this new economic order – making up 10-15 of our energy mix. 3 In this new world, clean energy and manufacturing value chains are a fundamental of economic growth. The energy-industrial complex see Exhibit 2 becomes a driver of innovation and productivity growth, a determinant of price levels, and a barometer for economic resilience. In this future, speed and scale of renewable energy and clean manufacturing deployment matter, as fast-moving technology frontiers make markets sensitive to compounding innovation and advantages are likely to be sticky. 1 McLean, Ian, 2012 ‘Why Australia Prospered The Shifting Sources of Economic Growth’ 2 Deloitte 2022 ‘Bringing Manufacturing Home How companies can succeed on the global stage with Australian manufacturing’ 3 Deloitte 2022 ‘The Electrification of Everything’ 4 Ibid Exhibit 2 The energy-industrial complex Exhibit 2 Resources and how quickly can new renewable hydrogen supply be brought online at scale Demand, and timing of demand for renewable hydrogen, will vary by specific end use Exhibit 3. 7 1. Hydrogen’s role in Australia’s future Exhibit 3 Uses of renewable hydrogen Exhibit 3 Sectors Role of Clean Hydrogen Timing 2030 2040 Comments I n d u st ry Steel H Reduction agent for DRI or BF-BOF and for high temperatures ✓ ✓ Voluntary demand, but long asset replacement times Ammonia H Feedstock to produce ammonia ✓ ✓ Ease of asset replacement, as H2 is already used Methanol H Feedstock to produce methanol ✓ ✓ Refining H Feedstock for hydro-cracking and –treating ✓ ✓ Other chemicals M Feedstock and / or fuel for steam cracking Depending on economics vs e-cracking Cement M Booster fuel to increase calorific value ✗ Unfavourable short-term economics vs biomass used Other industry L Most can be directly electrified / niche applications ✗ Depending on economics M o bi lit y Road freight H Fuel in heavy-duty long-haul transport ✓ ✓ Voluntary demand and favourable economics Shipping H Fuel in international shipping in the form of H2, ammonia or methanol ✓ Lack of technology alignment and maturity Aviation H Direct use or as feedstock to produce Sustainable Aviation Fuel ✓ ✓ Regulatory pressure EU and no asset changes needed Cars L Electrification possible and more economic ✗ ✗ Trains M Fuel to replace diesel engine trains in long-haul transport ✗ B ui ld Residential L Heating alternative in case of economic limitations of electrification e.g. high cost to electrify buildings with poor insulation ✗ Expected to first start in areas where electrification is not economic Commercial L ✗ Power M Balance intermittency from renewables through storage ✗ Required when renewables reach high share in energy mix 5 See for example Bloomberg ‘New Energy Outlook 2022’ 2022 . 6 See for example DNV ‘Hydrogen Forecast to 2050’ 2022 7 Deloitte “Hydrogen Making it Happen” 2023 Industry Mobility Build Page 11Page 10 Australia’s hydrogen tipping point The urgent case to support renewable hydrogen production For Australia, hydrogen will play an essential role in decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors such as chemical and fertiliser production, alumina refining, steel, cement and heavy transport. Australia’s hard-to-abate sectors are those where our emissions are where our emissions are high, and where carbon-linked import policies such as Europe’s carbon border adjustment mechanism CBAM will begin to bite, either directly or through intermediaries, such as South Korean manufacturers selling into Europe. Again, it is shaping up to be a question of timing. While many Australian industrial operators have made decarbonisation commitments, how they will deliver emissions reduction is still being determined. Recent market developments suggest that in the short term, industrial players are likely to purchase carbon offsets and credits rather than choosing to switch to renewable hydrogen. 8 This is principally driven by the relatively high costs of renewable hydrogen at today’s prices – as prices decline, hydrogen will break even with carbon credits and absolute emissions reductions will be realised. The economics of renewable hydrogen will get stronger as regulators begin to focus on Paris- aligned decarbonisation and as instruments such as CBAMs are contemplated and implemented in more markets. Early deployment of cost-competitive renewable hydrogen would accelerate decarbonisation in Australia. For example Switching to green ammonia in Australia’s fertiliser production industry would save 4.25 MtCO2e each year. 9 Switching to renewable hydrogen calcination in alumina refining would save 3.5 MtCO2e p.a. 10 Together, this would account for 23.7 of Australia’s emissions from industrial processes and product use 11 or the equivalent of taking 1.6 million cars off Australia’s roads each year. 12 8 Department of Climate Change, Energ