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Estimating the mitigation potential of forest landscape restoration Practical guidance to strengthen global climate commitments Simon König, Erin D. Matson, Elmedina Krilasevic and Maria Garcia Espinosa INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATUREEstimating the mitigation potential of forest landscape restoration Practical guidance to strengthen global climate commitments Simon König, Erin D. Matson, Elmedina Krilasevic and Maria Garcia EspinosaThe designation of geographical entities in this book, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN Climate Focus and the German Federal Ministry for the Environment or Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of IUCN, Climate Focus and the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. The publication is developed with support of Climate Focus. Funded by International Climate Initiative of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. © 2019 IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Reproduction of this publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes is authorized without prior written permission from the copyright holder provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of this publication for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without prior written permission of the copyright holder. König, S., Matson, E. D., Krilasevic, E. and Garcia Espinosa, M. 2019. Estimating the mitigation potential of forest landscape restoration Practical guidance to strengthen global climate commitments. Gland, Switzerland IUCN. iStock Zapall Design IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature Forest Conservation Programme Rue Mauverney 28 1196 Gland, Switzerland Tel 41 22 999 0000 Fax 41 22 999 0002 elmedina.krilaseviciucn.org https//www.iucn.org/theme/forests/resources www.iucn.org/resources/publications IUCN, Gland, Switzerland Published by Copyright Citation Cover photo Layout Available fromiii Contents Acknowledgements List of abbreviations and acronyms Glossary List of figures, boxes and tables Purpose The role of forest landscape restoration in mitigating climate change The importance of aligning with national and/or sub-national processes Simplified estimation of the long-term mitigation potential of FLR Step 1 Define type and scope of for est landscape r estoration FLR activities 1.1. Define FLR activities and pre-FLR land use 1.2. Define FLR area by pre-FLR land use 1.3. Define temporal scope Step 2 Determine changes in carbon stocks and gr eenhouse gas GHG emissions 2.1. Select carbon pools and GHG emission sources 2.2. Select carbon stock values and GHG emission factors 2.3. Determine carbon pools and GHG emission source significance Step 3 Calculate mitigation potential iv v vi ix 1 3 5 9 12 12 14 14 15 15 18 24 24iv Acknowledgements Special thanks to Naikoa Aguilar-Amuchastegui, Lara Murray, Michael Wolosin and Manuel Estrada, for their valuable contribution and feedback provided during the production stage. Our sincere gratitude to Carole Saint Laurent on the guidance provided throughout the publication development process. v List of abbreviations and acronyms Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use Biennial Update Reports Carbon Methane carbon dioxide emission reduction and removal Forest Landscape Restoration Forest Reference Emission Levels greenhouse gas The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change International Union for Conservation of Nature Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry National Communications Nationally Determined Contribution National Inventory Report Nitrous oxide Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change AFOLU BUR C CH 4 CO 2 ER FLR FREL GHG IPCC IUCN LULUCF NC NDC NIR N 2 O REDD UNFCCCvi Glossary AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use. For the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, agriculture was incorporated with LULUCF into the IPCC’s new land- use framework, AFOLU. In addition to the categories included in LULUCF, AFOLU includes agricultural practices such as fertiliser application, rice cultivation and livestock-related emissions such as enteric fermentation and manure management. For use in the common reporting format CRF for Annex I country submission of National GHG inventories. Baseline The baseline or reference level of carbon stocks or GHG emissions in a landscape against which additional gains or losses are measured. The baseline is generally assumed to be the stocks and emissions levels that exist before a given intervention is undertaken. A baseline approach holds other values in the landscape constant and focuses on the avoided costs or captured benefits of a single intervention. BUR Biennial Update Reports. BURs are submitted by non-Annex I parties to the UNFCCC every two years. These reports contain updates on information from the NCs, particularly regarding GHG inventories, mitigation actions, needed resources or capacity to address constraints and gaps and support received. Each BUR contains, at a minimum, the inventory for a calendar year no more than four years prior to the date of submission. C Carbon. Vegetation sequesters CO 2 from the air and stores it as carbon in biomass and soils. CO 2 values are converted to C according to the respective molecular weight as C CO 2 / 44/12 Carbon pool A system that has the capacity to store or release carbon. The Marrakesh Accords recognise five main carbon pools or reservoirs in forests above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, dead wood, litter and soil organic matter. Carbon stock Volume of carbon stored in a carbon pool. CH 4 Methane. A greenhouse gas that, in the land sector, is emitted through certain land-use practices such as enteric fermentation that takes place in the digestive systems of ruminant livestock, certain rice cultivation methods, manure and wetland management. While considered a short-lived climate pollutant and at lower concentration levels in the atmosphere, methane has a high radiative forcing effect that in results in increased potential for global warming. CO 2 Carbon dioxide. A greenhouse gas GHG that, in the land sector, is emitted as a result of processes including respiration, oxidation, biomass decay and burning. Deforestation, forest and land degradation are common causes. Conversely, FLR practices can sequester/ remove CO 2 from the atmosphere and enhance carbon stocks.vii Emissions Greenhouse gases emitted to the atmosphere commonly expressed in CO 2 equivalent CO 2 e Emission factor Amount of a certain GHG released to the atmosphere for a given unit and time frame such as tCO 2 /ha/yr FREL Forest Reference Emission Levels. FRELs serve as a benchmark to assess country performance in REDD activities. Countries must set reference levels to receive results-based payments for emissions reductions. FRELs are reported in tonnes of CO 2 equivalent per year for the reference period and are calculated using IPCC guidance consistent with the national GHG inventory. GHG Inventory Annual national greenhouse gas GHG inventories account for the direct GHG emissions and removals from five sectors, including agriculture and land use, land-use change and forestry. For Annex I countries, the GHG inventories are submitted every year in two parts the common reporting format CRF tables, which contain quantitative information and the National inventory report. For non-Annex I countries, GHG inventories are updated in national communications and biennial update reports. IPCC The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC is an international assessment body established in 1988 to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. The IPCC provides guidance on estimating GHG emissions, removals and stocks that countries have used to report to the UNFCCC since 1996. Good Practice Guidance published in 2003 for the land use, land-use change and forestry sectors provides methodologies to estimate changes in five carbon pools above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, dead wood, litter and soil organic matter and non-CO 2 emissions for six land-use categories and for land-use changes. These methodologies can be employed at three levels of detail, called “tiers.” Tier 1 is the least detailed and is also called the “default method,” designed to be implemented by any country. Tiers 2 and 3 require progressively more detailed and country- specific information based on field work and/or high-resolution spatial data. Lifetime The period over which an FLR activity is maintained once implementation has started LULUCF Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry. A land-use categorisation framework codified in the 2003 Good Practice Guidelines for LULUCF; includes forest land, grassland, cropland, settlements, wetlands and other lands e.g. ice, rock, bare soil. In each land-use category, emissions and removals are estimated from living biomass, dead organic matter and soil organic carbon. NC National Communications. NCs are submitted by non-Annex I parties to the UNFCCC every four years. They provide information on national GHG inventories as well as measures taken for climate change mitigation and adaptation. NCs include both country-specific adaptation and mitigation assessments.viii NDC Nationally Determined Contribution. As required by the Paris Agreement, the NDCs are action plans developed by countries to detail their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas GHG emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Countries agree to review and resubmit their NDCs to the UNFCCC every 5 years, with the first resubmission in 2020. NDCs may define specific targets for the land-use sector in terms of emissions and/or land area. NIR National Inventory Report. The NIRs contain detailed information on the GHG inventory for Annex I countries, including descriptions of the methodologies used in the estimations, the data sources, the institutional arrangements for the preparation of the inventory and recalculations and changes compared with the previous inventory. N 2 O Nitrous oxide. A greenhouse gas that, in the land sector, can be emitted from the application of certain fertilisers, manures and compost to soils and other activities associated with livestock storage and management. Nitrous oxide is less concentrated in the atmosphere than CO 2 and CH 4 but has a much higher radiative forcing effect than both that results in increased potential for global warming. REDD Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries. REDD was developed in part to slow, halt and reverse forest cover and carbon loss. REDD implementation follows three stages, beginning with national strategy and capacity-building, then moving to implementation and review of national strategies if further resources were provided and finally result-based actions and finance. ROAM Restoration Opportunities Assessment Methodology. A framework developed by IUCN in collaboration with the World Resources Institute for countries to identify and analyse areas with potential for Forest and Landscape Restoration FLR and to identify specific priority areas at a national or sub-national level. UNFCCC The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The UNFCCC is an international environmental treaty that seeks to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous anthropogenic interferences. 195 countries have ratified the Convention, which meet yearly at the Conference of the Parties COP. The treaty was negotiated in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and set into force in 1994. Under the UNFCCC, countries are required to submit regularly updated GHG inventories using IPCC methodologies.ix List of figures Figur e 1 Relationships between FLR planning and climate and restoration commitments Figur e 2 Assessment of FLR activity coverage in national greenhouse gas estimation and sub-national programmes Figur e 3 Potential Nationally Determined Contribution NDC enhancement opportunities . Figur e 4 Recommended steps to estimate FLR mitigation potential . List of boxes Box 1 Publicly available country submissions to the UNFCCC that can support ER estimation from FLR Box 2 Defining activity data and emission factors Box 3 Lifetime of FLR activities Box 4 Calculation of long-term average carbon stocks Box 5 Key principles for mitigation estimation List of worksheets W orksheet 1 Define the FLR activities, pre-FLR land use and corresponding land-use transition categories W orksheet 1.f. Define FLR area by pre-FLR land use W orksheet 2, part 1 Sample calculation of long-term average carbon stocks, with and without harvesting . W orksheet 2, part 2 Sample calculation of lifetime GHG emissions W orksheet 3 Long-term average carbon stocks and lifetime GHG emissions by land-use category W orksheet 4 Mitigation potential calculations References tables Refer ence T able 1 Examples of FLR activities according to IPCC AFOLU land-use categories . Refer ence T able 2 Description of carbon pools and greenhouse gas emissions . List of figures, boxes and tables 2 7 8 12 6 10 10 11 17 13 14 19 20 22 25 4 151 Estimating the mitigation potential of forest landscape restoration This document aims to guide proponents and developers of forest landscape restoration FLR activities and programmes in the rapid estimation of FLR mitigation potential, alignment with national greenhouse gas GHG estimation processes and identification of opportunities to enhance the role of FLR in national mitigation efforts. By following this guidance, the user will be able to Understand the relationship between FLR opportunities and national GHG estimation processes Summarise and clearly define the identified FLR opportunities with relevance for estimating the mitigation potential Identify resources for estimating mitigation potential and calculate estimates for select FLR activities Identify potential gaps in the scope of national GHG estimation and NDCs while highlighting concrete opportunities for their respective enhancement 1 Available tools include the Ex-Ante Carbon-balance Tool EX-ACT from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations http//www. fao.org/tc/exact/ex-act-home/en/
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