中国可持续航空燃料发展研究报告：现状与展望（英）-北京大学能源研究院.pdf-solarbe文库

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INSTITUTE OF ENERGY, PEKING UNIVERSITY THE PRESENT AND FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS IN CHINA Institute of Energy, Peking University October 2022致谢 Cover picture © Photo by Rudragos on Pixabay The Institute of Energy, Peking University is an independent energy think tank under Peking University. The Institute focuses on strategic policy research, cutting-edge technology research and development, education and training, international exchange and cooperation in the field of energy, and strives to become a top energy think tank.Taking advantage of Peking University s strong academic foundation and a wide array of disciplines, the outstanding faculty members from inside and outside the university, the convening power in education and research, the Institute works with global partners to provide smart solutions for sustainable energy transition. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY TRANSITION PROGRAM CCETP The Institute of Energy, Peking University launched the Climate Change and Energy Transition Program in March 2021, aiming to help China address climate change and promote energy transition to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The program provides policy recommendations and support to the Chinese government by setting science-based ambitious goals and formulating clear roadmaps and effective action plans. The program encourages China s energy industry to be safer, greener, and more efficient, and helps China reduce and ultimately phase out the use of fossil fuels. The research areas of the program include the macro analysis of the coordinated development of energy, environment, economy and society, as well as the following – Fossil fuel consumption cap; – Innovation in energy technologies; – The power sector s transition to a system dominated by renewable energies; – Promotion of electrification; – Low-carbon and green development of energy-intensive sectors; – Sustainable transportation; – Demonstration and promotion of regional, provincial, and municipal carbon-neutral models; – Reduction of dispersed coal and plastic consumption; – Carbon Neutrality, carbon sink, carbon market; – Energy justice and just transition, etc.THE PRESENT AND FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS IN CHINA DING YIRU 1 , YANG LEI 1 , ZHENG PING 1 , WANG QIANYU 1 AND LV JIXING 2 October 2022 1 Institute of Energy, Peking University 2 Civil Aviation University of ChinaACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report is developed by the Institute of Energy, Peking University. Sustainable aviation fuels SAF plays a vital role in carbon emission reduction in the global aviation industry, but the corresponding research work is still lacking, especially in China. In view of this, we organized this research, which lasted for one year, to find out the current situation of the China market and make a preliminary prospect for the future. It is our hope that this research could inspire more further exploration in this field. When researching for the purpose of and preparing the report, we were fortunate to have support from experts from many government agencies, industries and research institutes. Thanks to their first-hand information and professional feedback, this report is able to provide a panoramic view of sustainable aviation fuels in China. Here, we want to express our gratitude to them for their strong support. Our special thanks go to Gao Hua and Xiang Jinjing Argus Media Li Yaoguang Beijing Haixin Energy Technology Co., Ltd. Dong Yan and Chao Wei Beijing Shougang LanzaTech New Energy Co., Ltd. Wang Shiyao and Xu Yaohua SP Global Inc. Chen Min, Chen Lixian, Li Lin and Wang Zhao Boeing China Wang Huan and Gu Xian China, Air BP Xing Ziheng Cathay Pacific Airways Limited Zhu Cuihan and Zhang Lingying Hangzhou Energy Engineering Technology Co., Ltd. Zhang Wei, Yu Zhanfu Roland Berger Li Haixing, Peng Min and Han Renhua Shell China Ma Teng, Xupu Tianzhe National Biodiesel Industry Cooperation Group Liu Shutong MotionECO Wang Tongjia Zhongdiyou New Energy Shandong Co., Ltd. Gong Feng and Zhao Henghui China National Aviation Fuel Group Limited Wang Chenguang Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences Yang Xiaojun Civil Aviation University of China Yu Jinglei China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology Xiang Hai The Second Research Institute of CAAC Yang Zhiyuan Aviation Fuel/Oil and Aerochemicals, Airworthiness Certification Center of CAAC Zhang Xiaoli China Southern Airlines Huang Aibin Sinopec Zhenhai Refining Chemical Company Moreover, we also want to thank Zhang Zhe, Lv Mingxu and Liao Yanguang for their assistance in documentation. The authors are truly thankful to Boeing for its support of this research project. Should you have any advice or suggestion, please contact us at genergypku.edu.cn.TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary �� x Abbreviations glossary �� xii chapter 1 The global aviation industry and carbon emissions reduction �� 1 1.1 Updates of the aviation industry development �� 2 1.2 Progress of the aviation industry in carbon emissions reduction �� 4 chapter 2 The role of SAF in aviation emissions reduction �� 7 2.1 Main measures adopted by the aviation industry to reduce emissions �� 8 2.2 SAF will be the most important reduction measure �� 9 2.3 It is critical to dramatically increase SAF production and consumption �� 9 chapter 3 Technical pathways to producing SAF �� 11 3.1 The status of production �� 12 3.2 The prospects of development �� 14 chapter 4 SAF administration, laws, and policies in China �� 17 4.1 Laws and policies �� 18 4.2 Airworthiness certification �� 20 chapter 5 Main SAF market participants in China �� 23 5.1 Producers �� 24 5.2 Suppliers �� 26 5.3 Users �� 27 chapter 6 Outlook for SAF development in China �� 31 6.1 Technical pathways �� 32 6.2 Production capacity �� 34 6.3 Availability of feedstocks �� 35 6.4 Standards development �� 37chapter 7 Policy support holds the key to SAF development �� 39 7 .1 Government directives are critical for breakthroughs �� 40 7 .2 Supportive measures are essential �� 41 7 .3 Multistakeholder collaboration is critical for implementation �� 42 7 .4 Chinese policies will be shaped by a variety of factors �� 42 chapter 8 Policy recommendations �� 45 REFERENCES �� 48INSTITUTE OF ENERGY, PEKING UNIVERSITY ▏ vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1 World passenger traffic evolution 1945-2022 �� 2 Figure 1-2 Passenger traffic evolution in China 2017-2021 �� 4 Figure 1-3 GHG emissions from aviation as of the world’s total �� 4 Figure 2-1 Contributions of different measures to aviation emissions reduction �� 9 Figure 2-2 IATA’s SAF targets �� 10 Figure 3-1 Expectations of different SAF pathways between 2020 and 2050 �� 15 Figure 4-1 China’s regulatory system for civil aviation �� 18 Figure 5-1 China’s SAF supply chain �� 24 Figure 6-1 Opportunities and challenges for different SAF pathways in China �� 33 Figure 6-2 China’s theoretical SAF production capacity by 2025 �� 34 Figure 6-3 Estimated aviation fuel consumption in China and theoretical SAF share by 2025 �� 35viii ▏ INSTITUTE OF ENERGY, PEKING UNIVERSITY LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1 The COVID-19 impact on world scheduled passenger traffic for year 2020 �� 3 Table 1-2 CO 2 emissions from aviation in China 2016-2021 �� 5 Table 2-1 Main emissions reduction measures by the aviation sector �� 8 Table 3-1 Main SAF producers and production in Europe �� 13 Table 3-2 Main SAF producers and production in the US �� 14 Table 4-1 Chinese policies related to the promotion and use of SAF �� 19 Table 5-1 Chinese airlines’ flights using SAF �� 28 Table 5-2 Number of SAF flights made by global airlines �� 29 Table 6-1 Potential availability of SAF feedstocks in China �� 36 Table 7-1 EU’s proposed SAF blending shares �� 40 Table 7-2 Some drivers of Chinese policies on carbon emissions reduction �� 43INSTITUTE OF ENERGY, PEKING UNIVERSITY ▏ ix © Photo by Bilal EL-Daou on PixabayEXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, the global aviation sector generated 1.8 of global greenhouse gas GHG emissions equivalent to approximately 1.06 billion tons of carbon emissions. Although the global aviation market shrank signifi- cantly in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic, its overall business volume is expected to continue to expand in the coming decades, which means that GHG emissions from the sector will represent an increasing share. Without extra reduction efforts, the international aviation business alone will cumulatively produce 7.0 of global carbon emissions during the 2020-2050 period. Aviation is one of the most difficult of sectors to decarbonize, but the global aviation industry has set an ambitious goal to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Apart from developing new aircraft technology and improving operational and infrastructure ef- ficiency, developing sustainable aviation fuels SAF will also be a crucial measure to achieve net zero. According to a study by the International Air Transport Association, a reduction of 65 in carbon emissions will be achieved through SAF by 2050. INSTITUTE OF ENERGY, PEKING UNIVERSITY ▏ xi China is the world’s second largest aviation market after the US, whose size will continue to expand in view of its potential demand growth. Carbon emissions from aviation only account for about 1 of China’s total carbon emissions but given the fact that China has already reached the late stage of industrializa- tion, the carbon emissions caused by the development scale of traditional heavy industries will gradually reach a plateau. It is estimated that carbon emissions from these industries will go down in the next ten years. By contrast, carbon emissions from the ever-growing aviation industry will be something to be reckoned with. SAF remains a nascent market in China. On the demand side, airlines in mainland China have only conducted four tests of aircraft flying on SAF since 2011, including commercial test flights. To date, there has been no meaningful demand for SAF in China. On the supply side, only two companies are truly capable of producing SAF but remain at the trial production stage, with a designed annual capacity of approximately 150,000 tons. China still lags behind western countries which have been constantly experimenting with SAF over the past 10-plus years, with a momentum increasingly built up over the past several years. Globally, the SAF industry as a whole remains highly policy-driven, which is a factor that shapes the external environment of the industry. One deter