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ELECTRIFICATION IN CHINA’S CARBON NEUTRALITY PATHWAYS Synthesis Report 2022 on China’s Carbon Neutrality Acknowledgments This report is the result of a collaborative effort between Energy Foundation China and a multi-team research consortium, coordinated by the Energy Foundation China and the University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability and consolidated by a pool of specialists from both Chinese and international research institutions. The authors also acknowledge the high performance computing resources at the University of Maryland http//hpcc. umd.edu made available for conducting the research reported in this paper. Energy Foundation China and the project team would like to thank the reviewers that provide suggestions for improving the framing and analyses of this report. Reviewers Listed by alphabetical order of last name Richard Baron Director of the Trade Programme, European Climate Foundation; Executive Director, 2050 Pathways Platform Jae Edmonds Chief Scientist and Battelle Fellow, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory s PNNL Joint Global Change Research Institute; College Park Professor of Public Policy, University of Maryland Michael Greenstone Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics; Director of the Becker Friedman Institute and the Interdisciplinary Energy Policy Institute, University of Chicago Amory Lovins Cofounder and Chairman Emeritus, Rocky Mountain Institute Robert Stowe Executive Director, Harvard Environmental Economics Program and Co-Director of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements Massimo Tavoni Professor of Climate Change Economics, Politecnico di Milano; Director, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment Lord Adair Turner Chairman, Energy Transitions Commission; Senior Fellow and Former Chairman, Institute for New Economic Thinking Shaoda Wang Assistant Professor, Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago; Faculty Research Fellow, National Bureau of Economic Research NBER John Ward Managing Director, Pengwern Associates Matthias Weitzel Project Officer, European Commission, Joint Research Centre Harald Winkler Professor, Energy Research Center of University of Cape Town, Coordinating Lead Author of IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII Chunping Xie Policy Fellow, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Changwen Zhao Director, Senior Fellow, Center for International Knowledge on Development, Development Research Center DRC of the State Council Disclaimer -Unless otherwise specified, the views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of Energy Foundation China. Energy Foundation China does not guarantee the accuracy of the information and data included in this report and will not be responsible for any liabilities resulted from or related to using this report by any third party. -The mention of specific companies, products and services does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by Energy Foundation China in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. Cover Photo Energy Foundation RESEARCH CONSORTIUM AND AUTHOR TEAM Coordinating lead authors →Energy Foundation China Sha Fu →University of Maryland Sha Yu Lead authors Listed by alphabetical order of institutions and authors →China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute Xiao Qin →Energy Foundation China Lingyan Chen, Xuan Du, Manqi Li, Chengcheng Mei, Zhuoxiang Yang →International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Fei Guo, Volker Krey →Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen Junling Liu →Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Nina Khanna, Hongyou Lu, Nan Zhou →Peking University Yazhen Wu →Renmin University of China Ke Wang →Tsinghua University Qimin Chai, Wenying Chen, Shu Zhang →University of Maryland Jenna Behrendt, Xinzhao Cheng, Leon Clarke, Nathan Hultman, Jiehong Lou Suggested Citation Yu, S., S., Fu, J. Behrendt, Q. Chai, L. Chen, W. Chen, X. Cheng, L. Clarke, X. Du, F. Guo, N. Hultman, N. Khanna, V. Krey, M. Li, J. Liu, H. Lu, J. Lou, C. Mei, X. Qin, K. Wang, Y. Wu, Z. Yang, S. Zhang, and N. Zhou 2022. “Synthesis Report 2022 on China s Carbon Neutrality Electrification in China’s Carbon Neutrality Pathways.” Energy Foundation China, Beijing, China. Available at https//www.efchina.org/Attachments/Report/report-lceg-20221104/ Synthesis-Report-2022-on-Chinas-Carbon-Neutrality-Electrification-in-Chinas-Carbon-Neutrality-Pathways.pdf ELECTRIFICATION IN CHINA’S CARBON NEUTRALITY PATHWAYS November 2022 FOREWORD Since President Xi Jinping announced the carbon neutrality goal in September 2020, the world has experienced persistent ups and downs. Under the new dynamics, China reiterates its unwavering goal of achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. In 2021, China has submitted an updated version of nationally determined contributions with strengthened targets, set out the Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy, and shaped the “1N policy framework guiding the nationwide carbon peaking and neutrality actions. As a non-profit charitable organization, Energy Foundation China EF China has been dedicated to promoting prosperity through safe and sustainable energy since its establishment in 1999. It has been consistently and strategically supporting research and policymaking that target a carbon-neutral future. To better inform the formulation and implementation of China’s Mid- Century Strategy, EF China established its flagship Long-Term Strategy for Decarbonization Task Force LTS in 2018, committed to exploring a multi-win low GHG emission development path for China. We hope this effort will help put China onto a trajectory of sustainable prosperity and carbon neutrality. Up to today, the LTS has initiated three flagship projects LTS I, II, and III, engaged more than 30 top Chinese think-tanks in over 50 high-level research projects, and formed a comprehensive research landscape covering all important sectors and thematic areas in China’s decarbonization action. Encouraged by the success of the LTS I which presented an overall framework of China’s carbon neutrality pathways in 2020, we continued deepening it by shifting its focus to China’s low- carbon transformation implementation roadmap for 2035 in LTS II, and to the technology and innovation supporting carbon neutrality in LTS III. In parallel, to introduce international perspectives, EF China has continued to collaborate with leading international think-tanks, including International Energy Agency IEA, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, University of Maryland, Joint Research Centre European Union, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, 2050 Pathway Platform, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in LTS modeling and technical discussions. These frequent exchanges have empowered and served the field of climate and energy research and created a multilateral open intellectual platform for wider cooperation. Meanwhile, EF China has organized international advisory roundtables and Economists Dialogues to underpin the strategic position of carbon neutrality in China’s policymaking and to facilitate the development and mainstreaming of Carbon Neutrality Economics. Last but not least, the LTS Task Force has extended its working scope to support subnational decarbonization research and pilots in more than 15 cities and provinces, with the purpose to explore and demonstrate high-quality economic growth models that are compatible with the carbon neutrality vision. In 2020, we proudly launched our first synthesis report featuring comprehensive views of China’s new growth pathways toward a success in meeting the 2060 pledge and its long-term development goals. The report maps out the broad outlines of decarbonization and identifies key elements of strategy across the economy and within individual FOREWORD economic sectors. Regarded as one of the five pillars electrification, energy efficiency, power decarbonization, low carbon fuel substitution, and carbon dioxide removal to achieve carbon neutrality, electrification, coupled with power system decarbonization, presents not only a feasible option to reach substantial emissions reduction in electricity more quickly than in other sectors but also an opportunity to curb, and eventually reduce final energy consumption. Therefore, EF China has decided to proceed ahead with the deep-dive research into the role of electrification in China’s grand carbon neutrality landscape, and the dynamics of the double transitions of the end-use sector and power sector. Today, we are even more excited to release our second synthesis report of the series. It is a collaborative achievement of 9 leading international research and modeling teams in climate change and has gathered a pool of experts to review and consolidate the outcome. This report dives into the role of electrification and the associated electricity system transformation in achieving China’s carbon neutrality goals, and identifies sectoral near-term actions and long-term strategies that reflect technology availability, regional disparity, and economic costs. The proposed immediate action, long-term strategy, and policy frameworks will accelerate the electrification and power sector decarbonization and put China on a successful, low-emissions growth pathway. We stand in a time mixed with opportunities and challenges, competition and cooperation. Sustained research is needed to facilitate China’s decarbonization and economic transition and EF China will continue supporting such endeavor. We will genuinely and unremittingly pursue multi- win solutions with all partners to create, develop, and share a sustainable future and to help narrate China’s “New Growth Story” . Here, I sincerely congratulate the author team on this marvelous triumph and thank all the expert friends for their continued and wholehearted support of EF China’s development. I would also like to thank EF China’s dream team, without whose efforts this gift cannot come so alive. Thank you Zou Ji CEO present and synthesize both existing and new transition scenarios from multiple modeling and research teams; assess recent policy development in China; and analyze the alignment between China’s near-term policy targets and its long-term goals. This report particularly highlights the role of electrification and associated electricity system transformation in achieving China’s “30/60” goals and identifies a set of near-term sectoral actions and long-term sectoral strategies that can be taken to accelerate electrification and power sector decarbonization to put China on a successful, low-emissions growth pathway. 01 INTRODUCTION SYNTHESIS REPORT 2022 ON CHINA’S CARBON NEUTRALITY ELECTRIFICATION IN CHINA’S CARBON NEUTRALITY PATHWAYS 03 BOX 1.1 ANALYSES USED IN THIS REPORT 1 CO 2 FFI refers to Fossil-Fuel Combustion and Industrial Process emissions, CO 2 AFOLU refers to Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use. This report synthesizes a number of quantitative analyses from national and global models, including China DREAM, China TIMES, GCAM-China, MESSAGEix-China, AIM-China, PECE_ LIU_2021, and PECE V2.0 see Table B1.1 for detail. Participating models conduct analyses based on two coordinated scenarios Updated Nationally Determined Contribution NDC to Carbon Neutrality and Original NDC to Carbon Neutrality . These scenarios achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2060, but have different peaking times see Section 3.1 for detailed scenario description. We do not attempt to harmonize assumptions across models, and the results shown in this report reflect model-specific interpretation of socioeconomic and technological development in China. Building on these modeling analyses, teams also developed deep-dive analyses to address key issues and technology options for electrification in different sectors. These deep-dive papers include provincial-specific renewable energy investment needs, stranded assets and credit risks in China’s coal power transition, and electrification and transition strategies in industry, transportation, and buildings. Insights from these deep-dive papers are synthesized in this report to provide additional sectoral, spatial, and technological granularity to the analyses. These deep-dive papers are published with this report to provide additional context and information. TABLE B1.1 SUMMARY OF PARTICIPATING MODELING TEAMS Model Name Organization Spatial Resolution Modeling Methods Scenarios Modeled Gases Modeled 1 Documentation/ Source GCAM-China Pacific Northwest National Laboratory PNNL / University of Maryland UMD Global China is an independent region in GCAM A dynamic recursive model that represents the behavior of, and interactions between, five systems the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. Updated NDC to Carbon Neutrality; Original NDC to Carbon Neutrality CO 2 FFI, CO 2 AFOLU, CH 4 , F-Gases, N 2 O GCAM, 2022; Calvin et al., 2019 AIM-China Beijing University of Technology National The currently used models and methods include computable general equilibrium model; the dynamic economic model; the partial equilibrium model; the minimum cost optimization model, based on linear programming techniques described in detail and industry simulation models. Updated NDC to Carbon Neutrality; Original NDC to Carbon Neutrality CO 2 FFI, CO 2 AFOLU, CH 4 , F-Gases, N 2 O IPAC, 2020 INTRODUCTION 01 04 SYNTHESIS REPORT 2022 ON CHINA’S CARBON NEUTRALITY ELECTRIFICATION IN CHINA’S CARBON NEUTRALITY PATHWAYS Model Name Organization Spatial Resolution Modeling Methods Scenarios Modeled Gases Modeled 1 Documentation/ Source MESSAGEix- China International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA Global China is an independent region Global systems engineering optimization model used for medium- to long-term energy system planning, energy policy analysis, and scenario development. Updated NDC to Carbon Neutrality; Original NDC to Carbon Neutrality CO 2 FFI, CO 2 AFOLU, CH 4 , F-Gases, N 2 O IIASA, 2021; Huppmann et al., 2019 China DREAM Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LBNL National A bottom-up national energy system model whose primary drivers include physical and socioeconomic activity, energy intensity, and technology trends, built using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform LEAP. Updated NDC to Carbon Neutrality CO 2 FFI LBNL, 2022 China TIMES Tsinghua University National A dynamic linear programming energy system optimization model used for near- and long-term energy system analysis and climate change mitigation pathway development. Updated NDC to Carbon Neutrality; Original NDC to Carbon Neutrality CO 2 FFI S. Zhang Renmin University of China National A national energy system model which focuses on China