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i China Country Climate and Development Report EAST ASIA PACIFIC O2022 CHINA World Bank Group© 2022 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000; Internet www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank Group with external contributions. “The World Bank Group” refers to the legally separate organizations of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IBRD, the International Development Association IDA, the International Finance Corporation IFC, and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MIGA. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content included in this work, or the conclusions or judgments described herein, and accepts no responsibility or liability for any omissions or errors including, without limitation, typographical errors and technical errors in the content whatsoever or for reliance thereon. 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All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail pubrightsworldbank.org.COUNTRY CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT CHINAiv China Country Climate and Development Report Acknowledgements This report was written by a core team comprised of Sebastian Eckardt TTL, Gianni Ruta co-TTL, Katherine Stapleton, Jen JungEun Oh, Ashley Wan, Hasan Dudu, Yoonhee Kim, Maria Ana Lugo, Yi Yan, and Joonkyung Seong, with inputs from Lydia Kim, Min Zhao, David Kaczan, Jun Ge, Yusha Li, Yanqin Song, Ximing Peng, Christophe de Gouvello, Mengling Shen, Mingyang Hao, Xiang Xu, Yuan Xiao, Jia Li, Marcin Piatkowski, Min Hou, Daniel Mira-Salama, Radhika Goyal, Saini Yang, Ladisy Komba Chengula, Tian Qi, Marcus Wishart, Yi Yan, Abayomi Alawode, Jorge Puig, Dewen Wang, Yolanda Yun Zhu, Vicky Chemutai, Maryla Maliszewska, Paul Brenton, Yongmei Zhou, Eugeniu Croitor, Hector Pollitt, Tianshu Chen, Maximilian Hirn, Yu Shang, Khanh Linh Thi Le, and Ha Thanh Doan. The report has benefited greatly from comments and suggestions by Stephane Hallegatte, Somik V. Lall, Richard Damania, Vivien Foster, Vivek Pathak, Aaditya Mattoo, Ann Jeannette Glauber, John Nasir, and Wenjie Chen IMF. The economic and sectoral modeling work was done in partnership with Cambridge Econometrics, Tsinghua University, China Academy of Transportation Science, and China Academy of Social Science. The report was prepared under the guidance of Manuela Ferro, Alfonso García, Ruth Horowitz, Ethiopis Tafara, Martin Raiser, Mara Warwick, Hassan Zaman, Benoit Bosquet, Ranjit Lamech, Kim-See Lim, and Merli Baroudi.v China Country Climate and Development Report CONTENTS Acknowledgements . iv Overview 1 China’s climate ambition and development opportunity .03 Charting pathways to resilient, carbon-neutral growth .05 What we recommend 07 Policy Package 1 Accelerate the power sector transition with market reforms and investments in renewables 08 Policy Package 2 Decarbonize key energy demand sectors industry and transport .09 Policy Package 3 Enhance climate resilience and low-carbon development in rural landscapes and urban areas .10 Policy Package 4 Harness markets to drive cost-effective economy-wide abatement and innovation 13 Policy Package 5 Manage transition risks to ensure a just transition .14 Policy Package 6 Foster global climate action 15 From Analysis to Action .16 1. Introduction and structure of the report . 20 2. Framing the climate challenge in China’s development context . 22 2.1. Prosperity in a changing climate 22 2.2. Unprecedented economic development but rising environmental strains .24 2.3. Rebalancing from high-speed to high-quality growth 27 3. Policy pathways for a growth-friendly and inclusive decarbonization 33 3.1. China’s existing climate policy mix .33 3.2. Augmenting the policy mixfive fundamental shifts .35 3.3. Gauging the economic and distributional impacts of decarbonization .36 3.4. Sector policies for carbon neutrality 45vi China Country Climate and Development Report 3.4.1. Electricity and heat 45 percent of emissions, growing at 4 percent annually .46 3.4.2. Industry 33 percent of emissions, no longer growing 51 3.4.3. Transport 8 percent of emissions, growing by 6 percent annually .53 3.4.4. Low-carbon cities and buildings .58 3.4.5. Agriculture, land use, land use change, and forestry 6 percent of emissions, shrinking by 5 percent annually 61 3.5. Economy-wide and enabling policies for carbon neutrality 66 3.5.1. Macroeconomic and structural policies carbon pricing, competition, innovation, and trade 66 3.5.2. Green finance 73 3.4.3. Ensuring a just transition 77 3.6. External policies for a carbon neutral global economy .80 4. Policy Pathways for resilience to a changing climate . 86 4.1. Climate risks and vulnerabilities 86 4.2. China’s existing adaptation policy context.87 4.3. Adaptation and resilience policy pathways 88 4.3.1. Facilitate the adaptation capacity of people, firms, and local governments .88 4.3.2. Integrate adaptation in land use and water use plans .90 4.3.3. Protect critical public assets and services, particularly in urban areas 92 4.3.4. Help the most vulnerable manage residual risks and natural disasters.93 5. From analysis to action 97 List of abbreviations 101 Appendix Detailed Results of Macroeconomic Simulations MANAGE CGE . 103 References 108vii China Country Climate and Development Report Boxes Box 1. Accelerated Decarbonization Scenario ADS 43 Box 2. An alternative modeling approach using E3ME .44 Box 3. China’s power market and why reforms will be critical for the transition to carbon neutrality 47 Box 4. How China can meet energy demand without building new coal-fired power plants .48 Box 5. Motor fuel taxes in China 55 Box 6. Synergies between carbon sequestration, food production, and other ecosystem services .64 Box 7. The potential impacts of global climate policy action on China’s economy .83 Tables Table O.1. Different Measures of China’s Carbon Footprint 02 Table O.2 Investment needs to achieve China’s NDC and carbon neutrality .06 Table O.3. Short-term next 5 years priorities 16 Table 1. Different Measures of China’s Carbon Footprint 25 Table 2. Investment needs to achieve China’s NDCs 38 Table 3. Macroeconomic Modeling Results for Reference and NDC Scenarios .42 Table 4. Transport modeling scenarios, key policy parameters, and results 56 Table 5. Estimates of annual sequestration potential from different NbS .62 Table 6. Revenue recycling using existing government transfers and pension systems .68 Table 7. Short-term the next 5 years policy priorities . 97viii China Country Climate and Development Report Figures Figure O.1. Climate change poses a major threat to China’s economy and livelihoods 03 Figure O.2. China’s Growth Challenge .04 Figure O.3. China’s Climate Challenge 04 Figure O.4. Pathway to Carbon Neutrality05 Figure O.5. Distributional Impacts of Decarbonization 07 Figure O.6. Denser Chinese Cities Have Lower Per Capita Emissions, but Density Has Been Declining Over Time .12 Figure O.7. Job Losses Will Disproportionately Affect Lower-Skilled Men, Working Inland, Whereas Job Gains Are More Likely to Be Urban, Skilled Jobs in Coastal Regions 15 Figure 1. The CCDR at a glance .20 Figure 2. Unabated climate change poses a major threat to China’s economy, with estimated GDP losses between 0.5 percent and 2.3 percent per annum as early as 2030 22 Figure 3. Air pollution is causing a significant economic and human toll .23 Figure 4. Growth and GHG emissions have historically been closely linked . 24 Figure 5. China’s emissions profile is dominated by the coal-dependent power sector and heavy industry 25 Figure 6. Export-led growth has resulted in a wide gap between China’s production and consumption emissions .26 Figure 7. China’s increasingly factor-driven growth model is facing constraints 27 Figure 8. China’s transition from peak carbon to carbon-neutrality will be faster than advanced economies .28 Figure 9. An Integrated Climate and Development Framework for China 28 Figure 10. Transition risks vary significantly across provinces 29 Figure 11. China’s low-carbon opportunity rapid growth in patenting and renewable energy jobs, and declining renewables prices . 31 Figure 12. China’s policy mix has relied more heavily on command-and-control policies than market instruments .34 Figure 13. Model architecture and Scenarios for the CCDR 37 Figure 14. Exiting Coal 38 Figure 15. Aggregate Impacts of Decarbonization .39 Figure 16. Distributional Impacts of Decarbonization 41 Figure 17. Impact and Cost of ADS 43 Figure 18. E3ME modeling of the transition to carbon neutrality shows positive GDP impacts, with similar sectoral employment shifts 45ix China Country Climate and Development Report Figure 19. Five sectors account for 96 percent of China’s GHG emissions .45 Figure 20. The NDC Baseline Scenario could push energy-related emissions to carbon neutrality before 2060 48 Figure 21. By 2050, renewable energy will need to account for about 85 percent of total installed capacity in the NDC .49 Figure 22. Industrial emissions growth has started to decouple from output 52 Figure 23. If unmitigated, transport emissions are estimated to continue rising until they peak around 2040, and still emit over 1Gt of CO2 annually in 2060 .54 Figure 24. EPS and ADS policy scenarios could bring forward the transport emissions peak from 2040 to 2035 and 2030, respectively 57 Figure 25. Denser Chinese cities have lower per capita emissions panel A, but density has been declining over time panel B 59 Figure 26. China’s land use efficiency has improved since 2000 .64 Figure 27. China still subsidizes fossil fuels to the order of 0.2 percent of GDP 66 Figure 28. A carbon charge rising to 75/tCO2 by 2030 could reduce emissions by 15 to 20 percent panel A, while raising additional revenues of 2.7 percent of GDP panel B 68 Figure 29. Import tariffs and NTBs are higher on lower-carbon products 71 Figure 30. Green-labeled loans nearly tripled between 2016 and 2021 . 74 Figure 31. Currently workers in green jobs have higher educational attainment than in nongreen jobs 78 Figure 32. Job losses will disproportionately affect lower-skilled men, working inland, whereas job gains are more likely to be in urban, skilled jobs in coastal regions .79 Figure 33. China has unique potential to influence the climate policy choices of other countries and shift global prices 81 Figure 34. China can also shift global abatement costs and climate outcomes through its infrastructure financing and exports .82 Figure 35. Settlement area exposed to 10 percent annual chance of flooding, given median projected sea-level rise sq km 87 Figure 36. Adaptation principles in BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa countries quantitative analysis .89 Figure 37. Adaptation principles ratings in China qualitative and quantitative analysis .89 Figure 38. Growth of settlement areas exposed to flood hazards 1985–2015.92 Figure 39. Households in the lowest income deciles highly depend on government transfers and labor income particularly from agriculture94 Figure 40. The welfare of poorer households is particularly sensitive to the impact of food prices .94 Figure 41. Prioritization approach for recommendations .99 Figure 42. Prioritizing policy actions to maximize climate and development outcomes .1001 China Country Climate and Development Report Overview © Alex Brylov/Shutterstock02 China Country Climate and Development Report The China Country Climate and Development Report CCDR provides analysis and recommendations on integrating the country’s efforts to achieve high-quality development with the pursuit of emission reduction and climate resilience. Without adequate mitigation and adaptation efforts, climate risks will become a growing constraint to China’s long-term growth and prosperity, threatening to reverse development gains. Conversely, if efforts to tackle climate risks lead to a significant decline in growth and rising inequality, they would deprive millions of people of development and likely erode support for the reforms necessary to achieve a lasting economic transformation. Hence, China will need to grow and green its economy at the same time. This report offers policy options to achieve these dual objectives by easing inevitable trade-offs and maximizing potential synergies between China’s development and climate objectives. Table O.1. Different Measures of China’s Carbon Footprint CO 2 Emissions per Capita Emission Intensity Total GHG Emissions Unit Tons per person kg per PPP of GDP Mt of CO 2 e Brazil 5.0 0.13 1057.3 China 9.0 0.46 12705.1 India 2.5 0.26 3394.9 Indonesia 3.7 0.19 1002.4 Philippines 2.2 0.14 234.3 Russia 17.2 0.39 2476.8 United States 18.3 0.23 6001.2 Vietnam 4.7 0.33 450.1 European Union 7.6 0.13 3383.4 OECD 10.7 0.18 14551.2 Source World Bank World Development Indicators WDI. Data refers to total GHG emissions and the year 2019. China’s development and climate change are deeply and increasingly intertwined. The country is both a contributor to rising global greenhouse gas GHG emissions causing climate change