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Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2022 Edition JULY 2022 In collaboration with AccentureNet-Zero Industry Tracker 2 Contents © 2022 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders. Foreword 3 Executive summary 4 1 Mission and methodology 7 2 Cross-industry findings 13 2.1 Net-zero performance 14 2.2 Net-zero readiness 23 3 In-depth industry analysis 31 3.1 Steel 32 3.2 Cement 42 3.3 Aluminium 52 3.4 Ammonia 62 3.5 Oil 72 3.6 Natural gas 82 Appendix 92 A.1 Industry process overview 93 A.2 Industry demand overview 100 Contributors 107 Endnotes 109 Abbreviations and acronyms 110Net-Zero Industry Tracker 3 Foreword By 2050, the global economy is expected to accommodate and serve 25 more people, 1 50 more city dwellers, 2 and 100 more purchasing power in the global middle class. 3 Such developments will have tremendous repercussions for the global industries that provide the basic materials and energy required to sustain modern society, from housing to consumer goods. These industries are today’s most significant contributors to anthropogenic emissions. In business-as-usual scenarios, 4,5 through 2050, demand for energy and industrial products is projected to grow by 30-80. Industries will continue to be vital to our future; the effective decarbonization of their processes and value chains is crucial to achieving our climate objectives. While efforts are under way and commitments are being made, the reality of net zero for these industries is lagging and extrapolating from today’s speed of progress will fall far short. Today’s gap is considerable, and building transparency into this reality to elevate the discussion on how to structurally solve the challenge is key to addressing an under-served portion of the transition. While it is encouraging to see the adoption of standardization and monitoring of sustainability metrics at national levels in carbon-intensive sectors such as power generation, buildings and transport, significant gaps remain in heavy industries. There have been multiple challenges; complex supply chains, multiple production processes, global fragmentation, etc. It is time to close the gaps with timely and consistent monitoring of industrial decarbonization. Progress tracking will help heavy industries determine the trajectory of their transformations, maintain a steady pace of progress and inform necessary course corrections. The World Economic Forum has benchmarked countries’ energy transition through the Energy Transition Index for ten years. We are leveraging our experience to lay the foundation of a robust cross-industry platform that will track sectors’ journeys to net zero. Such a platform is needed now more than ever. The ongoing energy crisis, sky-high prices of energy and materials, and persistent risk of supply shortages are disrupting industrial value chains down to end consumers. This is the time for industries and governments to double down on efforts to accelerate the decarbonization of industrial processes, improve energy efficiency and reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. There is much to be done. International standards need to define “low-emission” industries. Low-carbon production technologies need to demonstrate their value at commercial scale. Consumer awareness and acceptance must evolve to generate demand for low- emission products. Infrastructures required to develop and integrate low-carbon processes must be developed. Economically viable low- carbon markets need to emerge. Investments must be “de-risked” to accelerate capital inflows. Adequate policy frameworks can help enable and incentivize transformation. These and other objectives cannot be achieved without a paradigm shift in multistakeholder collaboration across extended industrial ecosystems. Neither can they be achieved without keeping equity and justice at the heart of industries’ transformations. People’s livelihoods and opportunities depend on it. Industrial decarbonization may be one of the most daunting challenges of the energy transition. Yet, we want to be optimistic. Industry pathways to net zero have been charted; transparency is improving. If the global ambition and collaborative spirit witnessed at COP26 and at the 2022 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos spark concrete action, we could see this decade become one of the major breakthroughs for net-zero industries. The time for action is now. Roberto Bocca Head of Shaping the Future of Energy, Materials and Infrastructure, World Economic Forum Muqsit Ashraf Senior Managing Director and Lead, Energy Industry Sector, Accenture Net-Zero Industry Tracker 4 Executive summary Industrial sectors account for nearly 40 of global energy consumption 6 and more than 30 of global greenhouse gas emissions. 7 The transformation of these sectors is pivotal to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. This report by the World Economic Forum, in collaboration with Accenture and supported by expert input from over 40 organizations, establishes a new framework to monitor and support the progress of heavy industries towards net zero. The challenges associated with industrial decarbonization are typically more complex than those of other carbon-intensive sectors e.g. power, transportation, buildings, etc.. But they are also relatively less well understood. Gaps in data and discrepancies in key terminologies, definitions, and industry and emission boundaries contribute to a lack of visibility on progress. This tracking initiative aims to provide companies, policy-makers and consumers with the necessary transparency to ensure that action and investments are targeted and balanced. The framework follows a holistic approach and is designed to concurrently track industries’ “net- zero performance” and “net-zero readiness”. It identifies a set of standard metrics to assess emissions reduction and energy efficiency to evaluate performance. It proposes emission intensity targets to inform sectoral net-zero transition strategies and highlights information gaps to improve transparency further. While industries differ in products, processes and business models, their transformation will rely on the evolution of common enablers that are often beyond the control of any single industry. The framework assesses sectoral readiness for net zero by evaluating key enablers such as the readiness of technology, access to the enabling infrastructure, the robustness of supporting policy frameworks, the strength of demand signals for low-emission products and the availability of capital for investments in low-emission assets. Efforts to improve industries’ net-zero readiness across these dimensions are critical to progress industries’ net-zero performance. The report acknowledges that there are efforts under way. Net-zero commitments, decarbonization strategies, technology partnerships, low-carbon pilot projects, and discussions around green products and premiums have emerged. Despite this, no industry is anywhere near where it needs to be by 2050 and complex challenges within and across the industries remain. The report highlights sector-specific accelerators and priorities for six industries steel, cement, aluminium, oil, natural gas and ammonia and outlines seven cross- sectoral recommendations for immediate action.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 5 3. More full-scale demonstration projects need to be developed to accelerate the commercial readiness of low-emission technologies. Many low-emission production technologies have already reached large prototype and even demonstration phases, and can drastically reduce emissions e.g. -82 for natural gas, -95 for cement and steel, and -100 for ammonia. However, at the current pace, these technologies won’t be commercially ready for industry adoption before the second half of the decade e.g. 2025 for steel, 12 and 2030 or beyond for cement 13 and aluminium 14 .To accelerate the commercialization of these solutions and drive costs down, industrial firms need to double down on their efforts to develop full-scale demonstration or early commercial projects. 4. Broad adoption of low-emission technologies will be at risk if the pace of investments in enabling infrastructures does not pick up drastically. Most industry decarbonization pathways rely on low-carbon power, clean hydrogen blue and green and carbon capture. To meet the projected needs of the six focus sectors by 2050, capacities of global CO 2 storage and clean hydrogen production infrastructures need to grow 64-fold and 8-fold, respectively, from where they are today. Nearly 1,700 gigawatts GW of clean power will need to be added. This will require approximately 4.2 trillion in infrastructure investments over the next 30 years. 1. Industries’ net-zero transformations require a new level of ambition in multistakeholder collaboration. Breakthrough solutions are seldom found within a single firm or even industry. That’s why industrial ecosystems need to join forces beyond traditional partnerships. Three archetypal partnerships, detailed in the recently released Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2022 report, 8 should be built upon and replicated collaboration between customers and suppliers e.g. offtake agreements; collaboration among industry and cross-industry peers e.g. CO 2 handling infrastructure; and collaboration across the broader ecosystem of industrial stakeholders, including governments, policy- makers, financiers, researchers and NGOs. 2. Common standards for “low-emission” production thresholds need to be established for industrial companies to calibrate the transformation of their key production processes. Net-zero targets are necessary but insufficient to drive the year- on-year progress required. Emission intensity trajectories at a product level e.g. steel, cement are essential to guide consistent and timely progress. Industry standards e.g. Aluminium Stewardship Initiative 9 or Responsible Steel 10 , multistakeholder collaboration e.g. Achieving Net Zero Heavy Industry Sectors in G7 Members report 11 and product certification systems will be essential to define such trajectories.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 6 5. Demand signals for low-emission products are emerging but must be strengthened and scaled up. Decarbonizing the six industries could require over 2.1 trillion in capital expenditures in production assets. Such investments can only materialize if green premiums exist to grant producers and investors acceptable returns for their risk. Understanding end consumer demand and public and private buyers’ commitments would help provide producers visibility on low-emission products’ offtake volume and price e.g. First Movers coalition 15 . Establishing adequate carbon footprint product labelling standards would help consumers make more informed decisions and advocate for new types of products. 6. Public policy can reinforce all enabling dimensions and support the emergence of differentiated and economically viable low-emission markets for first movers. The trade-exposed nature of commodity markets is particularly challenging to decarbonization. Stable policy frameworks are necessary to level the playing field for first movers that are willing to invest in higher-cost, low-emission production. Potential approaches limiting the risk of carbon leakage include but are not limited to a price on carbon combined with a border-adjustment mechanism, carbon contracts for differences, preferential public procurement e.g. California Buy Clean Act 16 , material mandates, or quotas. 7. Adequate risk-sharing mechanisms, supporting taxonomies and public financial support can accelerate the flow of private capital into low-emission industries. Companies’ investments in low-emission assets are riskier due to their dependencies on new technologies and infrastructure. Collaboration across industries and value chains can enable risk-sharing while providing direct market routes. Favourable taxonomies and public funding in the form of grants, low-interest and concessional loans, etc. can also reduce companies’ risk exposure. Multilateral public- private partnerships to finance low-emission projects would help channel the necessary capital into the first commercial-scale assets. Establishing net-zero roadmaps for industries is essential to keep the 2050 goal within reach. So is appropriately measuring progress and improving transparency along the way. This first edition of the Net-Zero Industry Tracker report sets the World Economic Forum’s ambition to establish a robust tracking platform that supports the emergence of low- carbon industries by the decade’s end. The current energy crisis presents an excellent opportunity to pick up the pace of industrial decarbonization. Now is the time to act.Net-Zero Industry Tracker 7 Mission and methodology 1Net-Zero Industry Tracker 8 Establish a comprehensive tracker for all stakeholders e.g. companies, investors, financial institutions, governments, policy-makers, etc. to monitor and accelerate the net-zero transformation of industries. Support the global effort around industry net-zero transformation by providing all stakeholders A framework and methodology to understand industrial emissions drivers and net-zero transformation enablers. Quantitative and qualitative scorecards to track industry progress towards net zero over time. Priority areas for industries to act upon and accelerate progress. m i s s i o n s t a t e m e n t k e y o b j e c t i v e sNet-Zero Industry Tracker 9 1 Mission and methodology The Net-Zero Industry Framework combines two complementary lenses to track industries’ progress on the ground. Net-zero industry performance The four drivers of industry net greenhouse gas GHG emissions Net-zero industry readiness The five enabling dimensions of industry net-zero transformation Technology Policies De