钢铁行业数据库-中泰证券-220904.xlsx-solarbe文库

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© 证券研究报告 ZHONGTAI Analytics CHINA © 中国钢铁数据行业观点（2022.8.29-2022.9.5）受美联储9月加息升温预期以及基本面上供应超预期增产与旺季需求表现迟缓的影响，本周钢材价格走低，市场情绪走弱，信心也较为脆弱。原材料方面，本周原材料价格偏弱运行。焦炭方面，本周主流钢厂开启焦炭首轮提降，幅度100元/吨。尽管从需求层面，铁水产量在持续提升，但由于中游贸易商拿货减少，钢厂焦炭呈现出累库状态，这给予了钢厂提降的条件，更重要的是，近期钢价再次回调，钢企利润萎缩，这导致钢厂需要再次向上游转移压力，预计接下来焦钢企业将重新进入拉锯阶段。铁矿石方便，在旺季港口库存继续累库的悲观预期下，铁矿石价格下跌，但当前钢厂进口矿库存已降至年内低位而铁水产量强势，因此预计短期矿价以窄幅震荡为主。盈利方面，本周钢价降幅超过原料降幅，吨钢盈利继续小幅回落。整体来看，在供应增长超预期以及疫情反扑下游需求旺季开门遇阻的压力下，短期钢价将趋弱运行。风险提示宏观经济大幅下滑导致需求承压；供给端压力持续增加。【中泰钢铁】一周重点数据一览表 2022/9/2 单位本周周变化宏观指标汇率元/美元 6.88 0.04 原材料价格 Platts62,CFR 美元/干吨 95.60 -10.20 运费图巴朗-青岛美元/吨 18.56 -0.44 运费西澳-青岛美元/吨 8.30 0.35 66唐山铁精粉元/干吨 973 0 65卡拉加斯铁精粉元/干吨 829 -32 焦煤元/吨 2050 0 焦炭元/吨 3050 0 废钢元/吨 2680 -80 钢坯元/吨 3710 -60 钢铁现价螺纹HRB335-20MM,上海元/吨 3970 -230 热轧3MM,上海元/吨 3930 -160 冷轧1MM,上海元/吨 4330 -90 中厚板20MM,上海元/吨 4080 -110 天津6.5高线元/吨 4790 -150 无取向硅钢武钢50WW600,上海元/吨 5500 0 取向硅钢武钢30Q130上海元/吨 17000 0 吨钢毛利分析师谢鸿鹤 x i e h h r . q l z q . c o m . c n 执业编号 S 0 7 4 0 5 1 7 0 8 0 0 0 3 研究助理刘耀齐 l i u y q r . q l z q . c o m . c n 办公地址上海浦东新区花园石桥路 6 6 号东亚银行金融大厦 1 8 楼证券研究报告 W e e k l y D a t a s u m m a r y 热轧板元/吨 -73.18 -26.95 冷轧板元/吨 -419.20 -12.79 螺纹钢元/吨 167.00 -111.91 中厚板元/吨 -78.05 -5.71 库存会员钢企钢材库存（8月中旬）万吨 1733 -钢材社会库存 1464.90 -106.01 钢材社会库存万吨 1109 -29.76 月变化上周上月 2022/8/26 0.13 6.84 6.76 -8.20 105.80 103.80 -5.73 19.00 24.28 -0.25 7.95 8.55 0 973 973 -40 861 869 100 2050 1950 0 3050 3050 190 2760 2490 0 3770 3710 -170 4200 4140 -130 4090 4060 -110 4420 4440 -120 4190 4200 -210 4940 5000 -100 5500 5600 0 17000 17000 · 行业观点（2022.8.29-2022.9.5）受美联储9月加息升温预期以及基本面上供应超预期增产与旺季需求表现迟缓的影响，本周钢材价格走低，市场情绪走弱，信心也较为脆弱。原材料方面，本周原材料价格偏弱运行。焦炭方面，本周主流钢厂开启焦炭首轮提降，幅度100元/吨。尽管从需求层面，铁水产量在持续提升，但由于中游贸易商拿货减少，钢厂焦炭呈现出累库状态，这给予了钢厂提降的条件，更重要的是，近期钢价再次回调，钢企利润萎缩，这导致钢厂需要再次向上游转移压力，预计接下来焦钢企业将重新进入拉锯阶段。铁矿石方便，在旺季港口库存继续累库的悲观预期下，铁矿石价格下跌，但当前钢厂进口矿库存已降至年内低位而铁水产量强势，因此预计短期矿价以窄幅震荡为主。盈利方面，本周钢价降幅超过原料降幅，吨钢盈利继续小幅回落。整体来看，在供应增长超预期以及疫情反扑下游需求旺季开门遇阻的压力下，短期钢价将趋弱运行。风险提示宏观经济大幅下滑导致需求承压；供给端压力持续增加。【中泰钢铁】一周重点数据一览表 -203.80 -46.23 130.62 -184.33 -406.41 -234.86 -210.88 278.90 377.88 -170.18 -72.34 92.13 27.89 - 1705.03-28.60 1570.91 1493.5 -116.99 1138.47 1225.7 来源Wind 日期上证指数沪深300 钢铁申万证券代码证券简称 Date 000001.SH 000300.SH 801040.SI 2022-09-02 3186.4781 4023.6131 2416.4000 603878.SH 武进不锈 2022-09-01 3184.9797 4043.7395 2428.0300 002478.SZ 常宝股份 2022-08-31 3202.1378 4078.8402 2440.8300 000708.SZ 中信特钢 2022-08-30 3227.2203 4075.7937 2484.9300 601003.SH 柳钢股份 2022-08-29 3240.7275 4089.5205 2491.1900 002443.SZ 金洲管道 2022-08-26 3236.2226 4107.5455 2472.8300 000717.SZ 韶钢松山 2022-08-25 3246.2481 4116.2396 2493.3600 600126.SH 杭钢股份 2022-08-24 3215.2033 4082.4195 2477.2000 600022.SH 山东钢铁 2022-08-23 3276.2234 4161.0823 2537.9300 600231.SH 凌钢股份 2022-08-22 3277.7943 4181.3965 2558.7500 600569.SH 安阳钢铁 2022-08-19 3258.0784 4151.0738 2520.5400 600581.SH 八一钢铁 2022-08-18 3277.5438 4180.0996 2533.5100 002318.SZ 久立特材 2022-08-17 3292.5260 4216.9586 2564.4100 601005.SH 重庆钢铁 2022-08-16 3277.8847 4177.8370 2573.6000 600282.SH 南钢股份 2022-08-15 3276.0870 4185.6794 2552.6000 002110.SZ 三钢闽光 2022-08-12 3276.8877 4191.1520 2538.5300 000778.SZ 新兴铸管 2022-08-11 3281.6654 4193.5428 2542.8100 000825.SZ 太钢不锈 2022-08-10 3230.0200 4109.7373 2522.2100 600307.SH 酒钢宏兴 2022-08-09 3247.4318 4156.2907 2536.0000 600117.SH 西宁特钢 2022-08-08 3236.9337 4148.0746 2527.7100 600019.SH 宝钢股份 2022-08-05 3227.0267 4156.9111 2508.6400 000761.SZ 本钢板材 2022-08-04 3189.0391 4101.5367 2472.3600 603995.SH 甬金股份 2022-08-03 3163.6741 4066.9754 2466.5100 002075.SZ 沙钢股份 2022-08-02 3186.2664 4107.0240 2499.5700 600808.SH 马钢股份 2022-08-01 3259.9585 4188.6784 2587.9300 000709.SZ 河钢股份 2022-07-29 3253.2382 4170.1019 2610.3200 000959.SZ 首钢股份 2022-07-28 3282.5758 4225.6733 2604.9300 000932.SZ 华菱钢铁 2022-07-27 3275.7553 4225.0357 2610.3400 600507.SH 方大特钢 2022-07-26 3277.4356 4245.9758 2607.2400 600010.SH 包钢股份 2022-07-25 3250.3880 4212.6441 2578.3000 600399.SH 抚顺特钢 A u g - 1 7 A p r - 1 8 D e c - 1 8 A u g - 1 9 A p r - 2 0 D e c - 2 0 A u g - 2 1 A p r - 2 2 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 4 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 5 0 0 6 0 0 0 6 5 0 0 上证指数沪深 300 钢铁申万武进不锈中信特钢金洲管道杭钢股份凌钢股份八一钢铁重庆钢铁三钢闽光太钢不锈西宁特钢本钢板材沙钢股份河钢股份华菱钢铁包钢股份新钢股份 - 6 - 4 - 2 0 2 4 6 8 1 0 周涨跌幅 2022-07-22 3269.9739 4238.2341 2624.2800 600782.SH 新钢股份 2022-07-21 3272.0012 4236.0578 2638.9300 000898.SZ 鞍钢股份 2022-07-20 3304.7243 4283.8027 2660.0300 002756.SZ 永兴材料 2022-07-19 3279.4313 4269.3401 2623.9600 2022-07-18 3278.1033 4292.5858 2620.0000 2022-07-15 3228.0609 4248.5273 2577.4000 2022-07-14 3281.7440 4322.0742 2647.3800 2022-07-13 3284.2918 4321.4617 2671.8400 2022-07-12 3281.4665 4313.6184 2679.3600 2022-07-11 3313.5840 4354.6167 2665.4200 2022-07-08 3356.0778 4428.7810 2706.7500 2022-07-07 3364.3980 4443.4736 2742.2500 2022-07-06 3355.3497 4423.9698 2716.2600 2022-07-05 3404.0252 4489.5383 2748.0200 2022-07-04 3405.4267 4496.0303 2699.2100 2022-07-01 3387.6373 4466.7179 2670.8600 2022-06-30 3398.6161 4485.0108 2625.4200 2022-06-29 3361.5177 4421.3570 2626.9400 2022-06-28 3409.2103 4490.5166 2678.8400 2022-06-27 3379.1852 4444.2639 2671.0100 2022-06-24 3349.7470 4394.7723 2676.0400 2022-06-23 3320.1487 4343.8781 2631.8200 2022-06-22 3267.2016 4270.6227 2597.7000 2022-06-21 3306.7186 4325.5657 2602.6100 2022-06-20 3315.4302 4330.4328 2613.4700 2022-06-17 3316.7857 4309.0444 2612.7600 2022-06-16 3285.3845 4250.0614 2620.4500 2022-06-15 3305.4066 4278.2178 2643.1400 2022-06-14 3288.9066 4222.3114 2656.4100 2022-06-13 3255.5511 4189.3527 2643.8000 2022-06-10 3284.8341 4238.9936 2675.8000 2022-06-09 3238.9543 4175.6747 2660.6000 2022-06-08 3263.7934 4219.8122 2671.5100 2022-06-07 3241.7635 4179.1285 2637.3800 2022-06-06 3236.3719 4166.0850 2659.1000 2022-06-02 3195.4580 4089.5682 2612.3900 2022-06-01 3182.1566 4083.1772 2569.0900 2022-05-31 3186.4271 4091.5176 2571.6300 2022-05-30 3149.0607 4029.0179 2552.6100 2022-05-27 3130.2394 4001.2988 2545.9800 2022-05-26 3123.1079 3993.0446 2548.5500 2022-05-25 3107.4641 3983.1784 2520.0100 2022-05-24 3070.9272 3959.1541 2505.2600 2022-05-23 3146.8573 4053.9823 2599.4200 2022-05-20 3146.5673 4077.5998 2526.6300 2022-05-19 3096.9648 3999.5984 2486.0800 2022-05-18 3085.9768 3991.9069 2484.2400 2022-05-17 3093.6965 4005.8934 2476.7100 2022-05-16 3073.7488 3956.5378 2464.8100 2022-05-13 3084.2845 3988.6002 2450.9300 2022-05-12 3054.9940 3958.7400 2442.2300 2022-05-11 3058.7027 3976.4231 2451.6200 2022-05-10 3035.8442 3919.8684 2434.4200 2022-05-09 3004.1409 3877.4364 2419.0600 2022-05-06 3001.5605 3908.8150 2403.2700 2022-05-05 3067.7587 4010.2102 2481.4400 2022-04-29 3047.0624 4016.2410 2475.7800 2022-04-28 2975.4848 3921.1073 2384.9800 2022-04-27 2958.2820 3895.5361 2409.3100 2022-04-26 2886.4257 3784.1198 2311.6000 2022-04-25 2928.5118 3814.9127 2371.4300 2022-04-22 3086.9193 4013.2498 2549.9400 2022-04-21 3079.8077 3995.8300 2553.7900 2022-04-20 3151.0498 4070.7889 2678.1200 2022-04-19 3194.0287 4134.9017 2792.8900 2022-04-18 3195.5240 4166.3844 2755.6800 2022-04-15 3211.2448 4188.7472 2803.5500 2022-04-14 3225.6412 4191.5684 2789.5500 2022-04-13 3186.8244 4139.7370 2736.4900 2022-04-12 3213.3295 4179.9727 2743.2100 2022-04-11 3167.1259 4100.0703 2736.3300 2022-04-08 3251.8502 4230.7669 2828.8300 2022-04-07 3236.6951 4209.0998 2793.4600 2022-04-06 3283.4261 4263.8411 2832.4500 2022-04-01 3282.7166 4276.1580 2720.8600 2022-03-31 3252.2029 4222.5968 2695.5100 2022-03-30 3266.5959 4254.0989 2694.1900 2022-03-29 3203.9393 4134.1441 2648.0700 2022-03-28 3214.5027 4148.4663 2664.6300 2022-03-25 3212.2399 4174.5742 2654.7600 2022-03-24 3250.2644 4251.3061 2680.3300 2022-03-23 3271.0325 4276.5174 2699.3000 2022-03-22 3259.8619 4255.2950 2713.7600 2022-03-21 3253.6857 4258.7459 2677.1900 2022-03-18 3251.0724 4265.9017 2671.5000 2022-03-17 3215.0445 4237.6956 2647.3200 2022-03-16 3170.7103 4156.0810 2595.5100 2022-03-15 3063.9652 3983.8120 2518.3000 2022-03-14 3223.5328 4174.7577 2714.2800 2022-03-11 3309.7467 4306.5217 2800.9100 2022-03-10 3296.0922 4292.8374 2820.0000 2022-03-09 3256.3884 4226.3463 2772.0900 2022-03-08 3293.5301 4265.3910 2831.7300 2022-03-07 3372.8552 4352.7775 2943.6600 2022-03-04 3447.6490 4496.4301 2983.6700 2022-03-03 3481.1125 4551.6283 3027.8500 2022-03-02 3484.1916 4578.6007 2994.2900 2022-03-01 3488.8347 4619.6862 2992.5600 2022-02-28 3462.3064 4581.6459 2998.4200 2022-02-25 3451.4061 4573.4247 2992.0100 2022-02-24 3429.9564 4529.3189 2930.9400 2022-02-23 3489.1465 4623.0465 3021.0900 2022-02-22 3457.1460 4574.1527 3006.9200 2022-02-21 3490.6123 4634.3141 3051.6900 2022-02-18 3490.7573 4651.2358 3048.5700 2022-02-17 3468.0354 4629.1649 2973.3400 2022-02-16 3465.8305 4617.9893 2959.2800 2022-02-15 3446.0885 4600.1025 2908.5900 2022-02-14 3428.8821 4551.6878 2919.7400 2022-02-11 3462.9479 4601.3953 2971.7800 2022-02-10 3485.9071 4639.8625 2997.2400 2022-02-09 3479.9458 4652.0609 2991.9600 2022-02-08 3452.6288 4608.7729 2965.3700 2022-02-07 3429.5809 4634.0899 2890.8500 2022-01-28 3361.4397 4563.7720 2778.6300 2022-01-27 3394.2474 4619.8765 2807.8100 2022-01-26 3455.6679 4712.3109 2862.3300 2022-01-25 3433.0612 4678.4511 2839.1800 2022-01-24 3524.1050 4786.7377 2950.4500 2022-01-21 3522.5679 4779.3142 2910.6400 2022-01-20 3555.0629 4823.5091 2952.6800 2022-01-19 3558.1796 4780.3784 2976.9100 2022-01-18 3569.9144 4813.3472 2961.8500 2022-01-17 3541.6660 4767.2762 2923.5300 2022-01-14 3521.2559 4726.7317 2917.7200 2022-01-13 3555.2585 4765.9191 2955.2000 2022-01-12 3597.4321 4845.5787 3009.9800 2022-01-11 3567.4409 4797.7735 3053.3700 2022-01-10 3593.5187 4844.0451 3052.9000 2022-01-07 3579.5427 4822.3689 3063.7600 2022-01-06 3586.0792 4818.2318 3037.2200 2022-01-05 3595.1761 4868.1202 2970.5600 2022-01-04 3632.3289 4917.7653 3024.5500 2021-12-31 3639.7754 4940.3733 2999.3500 2021-12-30 3619.1886 4921.5109 2968.5100 2021-12-29 3597.0002 4883.4804 2956.9700 2021-12-28 3630.1115 4955.9644 2948.8500 2021-12-27 3615.9741 4919.3238 2917.2600 2021-12-24 3618.0535 4921.3449 2928.3700 2021-12-23 3643.3391 4948.7389 3013.1100 2021-12-22 3622.6178 4914.4544 3017.7000 2021-12-21 3625.1251 4913.4853 3045.5600 2021-12-20 3593.6019 4880.4178 3008.7100 2021-12-17 3632.3638 4954.7599 3050.2200 2021-12-16 3675.0160 5034.7321 3063.7800 2021-12-15 3647.6303 5005.8991 2976.5300 2021-12-14 3661.5253 5049.6953 2953.7100 2021-12-13 3681.0820 5083.8007 3008.8500 2021-12-10 3666.3479 5055.1172 3006.8300 2021-12-09 3673.0412 5078.6901 3036.9500 2021-12-08 3637.5675 4995.9298 3020.1300 2021-12-07 3595.0882 4922.1015 2988.4000 2021-12-06 3589.3061 4892.6209 2979.5800 2021-12-03 3607.4322 4901.0175 3002.3600 2021-12-02 3573.8358 4856.1630 2999.1500 2021-12-01 3576.8853 4843.8510 2967.9000 2021-11-30 3563.8872 4832.0260 2952.9700 2021-11-29 3562.6968 4851.4230 2969.8200 2021-11-26 3564.0894 4860.1265 2986.0100 2021-11-25 3584.1788 4896.4416 2917.2000 2021-11-24 3592.7025 4916.6579 2964.2600 2021-11-23 3589.0894 4913.3457 2944.1000 2021-11-22 3582.0797 4912.3990 2881.1100 2021-11-19 3560.3734 4890.0575 2870.1600 2021-11-18 3520.7106 4837.6185 2829.4300 2021-11-17 3537.3662 4885.7544 2778.3400 2021-11-16 3521.7867 4883.3206 2727.5700 2021-11-15 3533.3026 4882.3777 2783.2600 2021-11-12 3539.1002 4888.3749 2790.8100 2021-11-11 3532.7858 4898.6529 2826.7300 2021-11-10 3492.4616 4821.1925 2776.8000 2021-11-09 3507.0018 4846.7444 2781.4200 2021-11-08 3498.6308 4848.1795 2786.3200 2021-11-05 3491.5677 4842.3458 2715.3800 2021-11-04 3526.8657 4868.7419 2808.3200 2021-11-03 3498.5368 4821.1119 2822.8500 2021-11-02 3505.6283 4839.8457 2807.4500 2021-11-01 3544.4795 4890.6851 2900.0700 2021-10-29 3547.3361 4908.7701 2924.2000 2021-10-28 3518.4166 4864.1380 2897.1500 2021-10-27 3562.3052 4898.1644 3000.1600 2021-10-26 3597.6377 4963.0984 3055.5200 2021-10-25 3609.8626 4979.5235 3064.5600 2021-10-22 3582.6036 4959.7254 3043.0900 2021-10-21 3594.7831 4928.0156 3167.8400 2021-10-20 3587.0009 4910.1846 3171.2400 2021-10-19 3593.1533 4922.7232 3161.5700 2021-10-18 3568.1379 4874.7753 3154.9500 2021-10-15 3572.3662 4932.1084 3094.7100 2021-10-14 3558.2795 4913.6123 3115.7400 2021-10-13 3561.7623 4940.1089 3100.2400 2021-10-12 3546.9362 4883.8369 3080.8000 2021-10-11 3591.7087 4936.1918 3210.9800 2021-10-08 3592.1666 4929.9409 3261.0000 2021-09-30 3568.1668 4866.3826 3311.0400 2021-09-29 3536.2944 4833.9281 3243.3800 2021-09-28 3602.2184 4883.8280 3425.7000 2021-09-27 3582.8307 4877.3698 3432.1100 2021-09-24 3613.0673 4849.4277 3649.5500 2021-09-23 3642.2204 4853.1957 3852.7200 2021-09-22 3628.4897 4821.7675 3797.2800 2021-09-17 3613.9663 4855.9402 3768.5300 2021-09-16 3607.0922 4807.6978 3949.8500 2021-09-15 3656.2232 4867.3187 3986.3800 2021-09-14 3662.6015 4917.1617 3980.3400 2021-09-13 3715.3723 4991.6598 4162.1900 2021-09-10 3703.1103 5013.5219 4090.3300 2021-09-09 3693.1296 4970.0133 4191.2400 2021-09-08 3675.1865 4972.1324 3949.4000 2021-09-07 3676.5866 4992.8294 3973.8100 2021-09-06 3621.8593 4933.7262 3784.6400 2021-09-03 3581.7344 4843.0624 3758.8200 2021-09-02 3597.0426 4869.4113 3841.9800 2021-09-01 3567.1008 4869.4587 3756.8000 2021-08-31 3543.9402 4805.6099 3823.5400 2021-08-30 3528.1512 4813.2703 3639.7800 2021-08-27 3522.1567 4827.0433 3560.0900 2021-08-26 3501.6643 4801.6094 3546.7800 2021-08-25 3540.3837 4898.1572 3431.7000 2021-08-24 3514.4710 4888.3902 3412.9200 2021-08-23 3477.1321 4835.8782 3327.0900 2021-08-20 3427.3338 4769.2678 3325.1900 2021-08-19 3465.5546 4862.1394 3277.7600 2021-08-18 3485.2859 4894.2384 3288.1600 2021-08-17 3446.9760 4837.4034 3256.3100 2021-08-16 3517.3447 4941.0676 3318.4900 2021-08-13 3516.2989 4945.9829 3334.9700 2021-08-12 3524.7374 4973.3509 3331.8200 2021-08-11 3532.6213 5015.3406 3258.8400 2021-08-10 3529.9309 5043.1480 3193.9300 2021-08-09 3494.6348 4985.5627 3172.3600 2021-08-06 3458.2277 4921.5647 3140.6100 2021-08-05 3466.5491 4948.6703 3088.4100 2021-08-04 3477.2186 4978.8479 3109.4700 2021-08-03 3447.9914 4934.4583 2975.6700 2021-08-02 3464.2854 4933.7360 3099.1200 2021-07-30 3397.3574 4811.1695 3252.3000 2021-07-29 3411.7240 4850.2746 3077.6800 2021-07-28 3361.5895 4760.4826 2970.9700 2021-07-27 3381.1833 4751.3130 3045.8200 2021-07-26 3467.4409 4925.2990 3181.1900 2021-07-23 3550.3964 5089.2282 3235.7600 2021-07-22 3574.7344 5151.7517 3180.3200 2021-07-21 3562.6611 5144.0428 3018.2200 2021-07-20 3536.7905 5108.9941 2947.1500 2021-07-19 3539.1225 5113.4945 2987.2100 2021-07-16 3539.3038 5094.7727 3034.0700 2021-07-15 3564.5902 5151.4626 3013.8200 2021-07-14 3528.5011 5083.0849 2875.7300 2021-07-13 3566.5225 5142.0991 2925.1100 2021-07-12 3547.8362 5132.7088 2884.0700 2021-07-09 3524.0881 5069.4361 2856.3500 2021-07-08 3525.5039 5088.2566 2776.4800 2021-07-07 3553.7155 5140.4899 2820.5700 2021-07-06 3530.2589 5083.1043 2732.6400 2021-07-05 3534.3222 5085.7924 2750.3700 2021-07-02 3518.7595 5081.1172 2744.4600 2021-07-01 3588.7816 5229.6642 2765.0100 2021-06-30 3591.197