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1 Pursuing a low-carbon rural energy transition in China and Germany Perspectives on self-sufficiency and sector coupling from two villages Sino-German Energy Transition Project 2 Imprint The report Pursuing a low-carbon rural energy transition in China and Germany introduces the results of parallel studies of ru- ral villages in Germany and China with potential for a low-carbon, clean energy transition, and makes policy suggestions related to promoting clean energy policies that could accelerate that transition. The report is published in the framework of the Sino-German Energy Transition project, as part of the Sino-German Energy Partnership between the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action BMWK and the National Energy Administration of the People’s Republic of China NDRC. The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GIZ GmbH, Agora Energiewende, and the German Energy Agency Deutsche Energie-Agentur, or dena jointly implement the project under commission of the politi- cal partners. As a German federal enterprise, GIZ supports the German government in the achievement of its goals in international coop- eration for sustainable development. Published by Sino-German Energy Transition Project commissioned by the German Federal Min- istry for Economic Affairs and Climate Ac- tion BMWK Tayuan Diplomatic Office Building 1-15-1, 14 Liangmahe South Street, Chaoyang District 100600 Beijing, P. R. China c/o Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zu- sammenarbeit GIZ GmbH Torsten Fritsche Köthener Str. 2 Berlin 10963 Project Management Anders Hove, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GIZ GmbH Authors Bing Xue, Hongqing Li, Chinese Academy of Sci- ences Institute of Applied Ecology Michael Popp, Markus Zdrallek, Jessica Stephan, Sven Pack, Wuppertal University Ulrich Jansen, Thorsten Koska, Wuppertal Institute Anders Hove, Philipp Geres, GIZ Design Xueling Liu, GIZ edelman.ergo on commission of BMWK Image BMWK/Cover, P11 Shutterstock_108342809/P 5 Shutterstock_326698985/P 20 AdobeStock_478467898/P 47 © Beijing, May 2022 This report in its entirety is protected by copyright. The information contained was compiled to the best of our knowledge and belief in accordance with the principles of good scientific practice. The authors believe the information in this report is correct, complete and current, but accept no liability for any errors, explicit or implicit. Responsibility for the content of external websites linked in this publication always lies with their respective publishers. The state- ments in this document do not necessarily reflect the client’s opinion. GIZ accepts no responsibility for these maps being entirely up to date, correct or complete. All liability for any damage, direct or indirect, resulting from their use is excluded. 3 Contents Executive summary . 4 Introduction 6 Comparing Dongqiaotou and Schwaig . 8 Schwaig, Bavaria . 8 Dongqiaotou 9 Comparison of Schwaig and Dongqiaotou 10 Current situation and policy framework in China and Germany 13 Policies in Germany 13 Policies in China. 13 Methods and analysis 15 Analysis – Schwaig 24 Research questions, assumptions and methodologies - Dongqiaotou. 32 Survey results - Dongqiaotou 37 Analysis - Dongqiaotou 39 Discussion of differences between the two research approaches 45 A village in Germany and China in the year 2030 . 46 Policy recommendations . 47 Conclusions . 51 Annexes 53 References 56 4 Executive summary Rural areas play a vital role in the low-carbon energy tran- sition, given their ample open space, and considerable en- ergy consumption. Yet much of the analysis of low-carbon technology adoption or low-carbon energy system fore- casting omits mention of rural communities, focusing in- stead on wealthier, urban residents or overall installations of utility-scale renewable energy or storage. For this study, the Sino-German Energy Transition project brought together scholars of energy modelling and rural ecology to examine the question of how clean energy tech- nology will affect the energy flows and carbon emissions of rural areas in Germany and China. This report describes the results of case studies of two rural villages/towns Dongqiaotou in Shandong province, China, and Schwaig in Bavaria, Germanyto examine the question of how to ac- celerate the clean energy transition in areas, and to iden- tify the potential for rural communities to become more self-sufficient in their energy supply to enhance resilience and lower network costs. In the case of Dongqiaotou village in Shandong province, a village-scale survey, semi-structured interviews, and a combination of top-down and bottom-up analysis enabled development of an energy flow model and scenario analy- sis of the village’s current and future energy system. The analysis finds that the village has a potential to meet a large share of its electric power and heating/cooling de- mand via solar PV and heat pumps which provide both heating and cooling. With a growing share of electric ve- hicles, villagers can save money for fuel by using solar en- ergy for charging during daytime. Accelerating the vil- lage’s plans to adopt PV panels and solar streetlights will not only benefit the residents through reduced energy costs, but also promote the development of a low-carbon society. Storage for electricity and heat could further en- hance self-sufficiency in the future. In the case of Schwaig, a combination of village-scale sur- vey data, energy data from local utilities, and scenario analysis enabled the construction of an energy flow model and scenario analysis. The report finds that Schwaig has a high potential to further increase its already high degree of clean energy self-sufficiency, through the adoption of res- idential heat pumps and electric vehicles. However, sea- sonal energy storage and balancing from the grid will still be necessary. Overall, the two villages/towns have commonalities in terms of the potential for clean energy, even though they exhibit marked differences in terms of income, occupa- tions, and current fuels for heating and power. From our scenario analysis and projections, we conclude Distributed energy and self-sufficiency are attractive in both Germany and China In Germany, adoption of dis- tributed solar, electric vehicles, and heat pumps is likely to continue, giving the region’s high potential for energy self-sufficiency. Similarly, we find that Dongqiaotou has the potential to increase its self-sufficiency with EVs and PV, even as its energy consumption rises more rapidly due to rising incomes. In Germany, heat pumps and insulation could help reduce the impact of solar variability Adoption of distributed clean energy will also make daily electricity supply and loads more volatile, given that PV could supply up to a fourth of local energy production and far exceed the total household monthly load in summer. We estimate that heat pumps and well-insulated German houses have high po- tential for smoothing household net loads. While heat pump adoption in Oberding is presently low, 62 of homes could have heat pumps installed by 2035 according to the dena95 scenario. EV adoption and timed charging could play a role, but it is far smaller given that the EV load is expected to be just 4-5 of total energy consumption, compared to 16-17 for heating and cooling. In China’s rural areas, distributed energy technology adoption is more uncertain, but has high potential In China, bioenergy will continue to play a larger role in boosting the village’s renewable energy uptake. While there is uncertainty about adoption of distributed PV, heat pumps, or EVs, scenarios and estimates employed in this study suggest that by 2030 these technologies will likely have a significantly larger presence, particularly PV. Heat pumps are already economical for those homes that re- quire both cooling and heating. Under the existing devel- opment model, the village was 16.8 energy self-suffi- ciency rate in 2020. Under an optimistic development sce- nario, the energy self-sufficiency rates could reach 80.70 in 2025 and 126.16 in 2030. The analysis in both China and Germany employed a mixed approach that quantifies the present energy production and consumption based on existing datasets, estimates from national or regional data, data from the distribution grid in the Schwaig case, and household surveys. For the household energy surveys, in Schwaig/Oberding the sur- vey response rate was 19, and in Dongqiaotou 18.8. 5 Scenarios for PV, EV, and heat-pump adoption combine multiple sources including discussion with local officials and experts, dena, Agora, BDI, and BWP for Germany. For China, scenarios include information from local surveys; analyses on expected national and regional development of EVs and heat pumps served as a basis for estimates on village level. The modelling approaches and methodologies that the re- searchers applied in the two villages differ, and therefore the resulting estimates on energy self-sufficiency for both villages are not directly comparable. For instance, in Dongqiaotou the researchers considered agricultural waste and all energy consumption, whereas in Schwaig the analysis only considered grid electricity and household electricity. The rural energy transition is an important policy priority for both countries, given that rural communities have an important positive contribution to make to the energy transition, and policy makers want to ensure the benefits of the energy transition reach rural communities. In the future, studies like this can enable greater awareness among rural residents and facilitate exchange with policy makers about how to ensure a just energy transition in ru- ral areas. 6 Introduction It is critical that rural areas both participate in, and benefit from, the low-carbon energy transition. China’s energy transition to date has involved massive deployment of wind and solar, efficiency upgrades to the country’s coal plants and industry, and commercialisation of new energy technology in fields such as electric vehicles in major cities. In Germany, which was one of the first countries to deploy wind and solar energy at scale, rural communities have benefited from ownership in rural energy facilities. To re- alise the energy transition, both countries are likely to ac- celerate their deployment of renewables, electrification of transport and heating, and replacement of fossil fuel heat- ing with electric heat pumps or other low-carbon options. How this will affect rural residents is an open question, es- pecially given concerns that the trend towards electrifica- tion might entail major upgrades to rural distribution grids. If distributed energy and storage enable greater self-reli- ance, this could benefit local areas both by reducing infra- structure costs, and thereby lowering grid charges, as well as improving overall rural climate resilience. China The energy transition discussion in China sometimes fo- cuses mainly on the energy industry or on urban areas. In the context of rapid urbanisation, it is easy to overlook the country’s vast rural areas even though they still are home to over 509 million people, accounting for 36 of the total population. Achieving the energy transition in rural areas is an important part of realising China’s national strate- gies and targets, such as the Energy Revolution, Rural Re- vitalisation, the Beautiful China Strategy, and carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Rural areas in China face challenges such as an aging pop- ulation; soil and water pollution; and a large income and wealth gap to larger cities. Rural areas in China have lower incomes and often rely on older technologies such as two- stroke diesel three-wheeled vehicles or heating with loose coal 散煤 in Chinese or biomass. Many villages employ older building practices with poor insulation. Smaller towns often have minimal connections to the power grid. Yet China is focusing on raising the living quality of rural areas, and the clean energy transition is part of that pro- cesswith the potential for improving local air quality and the efficiency of daily life tasks. Though rural areas use less energy per capita than urban areas, it is nevertheless im- portant that they also play a role in carbon neutralitynot just through large energy projects, but also through dis- tributed clean energy technologies and energy efficiency upgrades. Germany Germany’s energy transition, in contrast to China’s, early on focused on involving rural areas in deploying clean en- ergy. The first impetus for Germany’s energy transition came from the oil crises of the 1970s, but a crucial turning point was the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which set the first cli- mate policy targets for the industrialised countries to re- duce greenhouse gas emissions. 1 According to this, the Eu- ropean Union EU set climate, renewable energy, and en- ergy efficiency targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in 2007. The EU has steadily tightened and updated its tar- gets under the 2015 Paris Agreement and the EU Green Deal. 2 After the reactor catastrophe in Fukushima 2011, Germany decided on a faster phase-out of nuclear energy by 2022. 3 In 2020, the German government decided to shut down all coal-fired power plants by 2038 at the latest, while the new Federal Government that took office in De- cember 2021 intends to do so by 2030. 4 Germany aims to become climate neutral by 2045. Germany only can achieve these goals with a large amount of renewable energy and a massive expansion of distrib- uted energy resources DERs. These targets also imply electrifying the transport and heating sectors, which today mainly rely on fossil fuels. This transition will further in- crease electricity demand, which also underlines the im- portance of installing as many distributed renewables as possible to reduce the need for imported energy and net- work upgrades. Distributed wind and solar are at the fore- front of the German low-carbon energy transition, often owned directly by individuals or small communities. But the German rural energy transition is also a work in pro- gress. Rural areas have ample room to adopt electric trans- portation and efficient heating and cooling, for example. Comparison of rural energy transitions The energy transition is creating opportunities, especially in rural areas. Rural areas in China and Germany often have more local renewable energy resources and more space for deploying renewable energy generation technologies than urban areas. Hence, they have a potential for achieving a 7 high degree of self-sufficiency from their local renewable energy resources. In general, rural areas often have various structural weak- nesses compared to urban areas, reflected in lower in- comes and fewer jobs. For example, in Bavaria in 2019, the per capita income in rural regions was about 9.3 lower than in