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2021 China Energy Transformation Outlook 2021 Zhongying Wang Energy Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research 2021-11-10Outline ◼ Research background ◼ Modelling method ◼ Scenarios ◼ Development outlook ◼ Development suggestions 2019 Energy consumption per capita in 2019 The relationship between energy and development of modern society “Energy is irreplaceable as modern life is completely structured on the basis of energy, an essential factor just as important as air, water and land.“ Theodore W. Schultz 03 / Unit kWh70.7 72.2 76.2 68.5 56.8 0 20 40 60 80 100 1978 1980 1990 2000 2020 Coal Oil Gas H Energy supply revolution as the foundation; Energy technology revolution as the driving force; Energy system revolution as the guarantee; and International energy cooperation as the trend. 10 International Energy Cooperation Reform in Energy Technology Energy Supply Reform Energy Consumption Reform Energy System Reform Energy supply and demand security Energy environment security Energy climate security Energy economy security 15 2020 2005 48.4 15.9 China has given great efforts on low-carbon energy transition In the past 15 years, China’s emission intensity reduction has far exceeded the 2020 target of the Climate Action Plan By 2020, the CO2 emission/ RMB 10,000 of GDP decreased by 48.4 compared to 2005; the share of non-fossil fuel in total primary energy consumption further raised to 15.9 05 2005-2020 CO2 emissions /GDP dropped by 48.4 2005-2020 installed capacity of PV increased by 3000 times 2010-2020 energy consumption intensity decreased by 28.7 Share of non-fossil fuel 15.9 2005-2020 installed capacity of wind power increased by 200 times Installed capacity of RE 934 GW Production and sales of new energy vehicles ranked 1 for six years 9.0 Leapfrog development achieved in non-fossil fuels China’s total installed hydropower, wind and solar PV capacity ranked the first in the world Since the promulgation of the Renewable Energy Law, China has achieved leapfrog development in non-fossil fuels, with the combined capacity of installed hydropower, wind and solar PV plants surpassing 900 GW. 06Outline ◼ Research background ◼ Modelling method ◼ Scenarios ◼ Development outlook ◼ Development suggestions Introduction to modelling method “China energy analysis model system ERI-DEMAND, ERI-EDO, ERI-CGE. 12 Introduction to model method and scenario setting “China energy analysis model system Based on the criterion of maximizing the benefits of the whole society, realize technical and economic evaluation, energy system optimization, policy measures, economic and social evaluation, energy Externality Analysis, etc. 13Outline ◼ Research background ◼ Modelling method ◼ Scenarios ◼ Development outlook ◼ Development suggestionsNDC 2020 2005 40-45 15 2030 2005 60-65 20 Introduction to model method and scenario setting In 2020, the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP will be 40 - 45 lower than that in 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption will reach about 15. Carbon dioxide emissions will peak around 2030 and strive to reach the peak as soon as possible. Carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decrease by 60 - 65 compared with 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption will reach about 20. 15 NDC 2030 2060 2030 2005 65 25 12 Carbon dioxide emissions will reach the peak by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060. By 2030, China s carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be more than 65 lower than that in 2005, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will reach about 25, and the total installed capacity of wind and solar power will reach 1200 GW. Introduction of scenario setting Scenario setting Set up Baseline Scenario BLS and Carbon Neutrality Scenario CNS, study the possible development path in the future, and analyze the challenges and opportunities. In CNS, China needs to make greater efforts to make a better development pathway. BLS Achieving the commitment to the Paris Agreement and prospects for the development of energy system under the goal of Beautiful China. Retrace the 2050 target and expand to 2060 CNS On the basis of the Paris Agreement and the construction of Beautiful China, strengthen the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutral, implement the energy system development prospects under the established policies. Retrace the 30-60 dual carbon targets 16 2035 2050 Introduction to model method and scenario assumptions Scenario assumptions Basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035 and making China a great modern socialist country by 2050. Fully considering cost reduction potential of all power generation technologies including wind and PV, comprehensively considering the development potential of energy storage and EV. 17Energy transformation Power system transformation Industry electrification Green power industry growth Economic transformation The three synchronous transformations in a green and low-carbon development patch Industrial end-use transformation from fossil fuels to electricity Sectors of the industry Transformation to information, digitalization and smart Power system transformation from coal to renewable energy Deep transformation of the industry and energy sector structure could result in a reduction of total primary energy consumption from 6500 – 7500 Mtce to 47-48 Mtce in 2060Outline ◼ Research background ◼ Modelling method ◼ Scenarios ◼ Development outlook ◼ Development suggestions 2040 2040 61 2060 47-48 GDP 2060 5.4 / Scenario simulation of Carbon Neutrality Scenario CNS Total primary energy consumption is expected to peak around 2040, while energy efficiency continues to improve China s total primary energy consumption is expected to peak around 2040, at around 6100Mtce, and to drop to 4700-4800 Mce in 2060. In 2060, energy consumption per unit of GDP gradually decreases to 5.4 tce / RMB 10,000, making China one of the global leading country in this regard. 19 4500 5500 6500 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Mtce Total primary energy consumption BLS CNS 0 20 40 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 tce/RMB 10,000 Energy intensity BLS CNS 2035 31.9- 34 2060 91.2-96.8 As the energy consumption structure continuously improves, renewable energy becomes a dominant source of energy supply With the share of non-fossil fuels projected to reach 31.9-34 in 2035 and to further increase to 91.2-96.8 in 2060, renewable energy will become a dominant source of energy supply in China. 20 Scenario simulation of CNS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 BLS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 CNS Fossil fuel consumption will reach the peak The energy consumption of the coal, oil and gas will reach the peak one by one, while non-fossil fuels including wind and solar energy will gradually transfer from dominating incremental energy consumption to replacing fossil fuel in existing energy consumption, and ultimately becomes the main energy source. 21 Scenario simulation of CNS 0 10 20 30 40 50 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Mtce Coal consumption BLS CNS 0 2 4 6 8 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Mtce Oil consumption BLS CNS 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Mtce Natural gas consumption BLS CNS 2030 2030 2060 26.5- 21.8 2025 2030 Energy consumption in the end-use sectors is expected to peak in 2030 China’s energy consumption in the end-use sectors is expected to peak around 2030, and to drop to 2650-2180 Mtce in 2060. While the industry and construction sector is to peak the CO2 emissions around 2025, the transport sector is to peak the CO2 emissions around 2030. 22 Scenario simulation of CNS 2060 China Energy Flow Chart Mtce 2060 54-74 67.7-97.5 14.6-17.3 The electrification rate will significantly rises in the end-use sectors The electrification rate will reach 54-7467.7 - 97.5 with hydrogen production in 2060; Electrification will drive the continuous growth of power demand, and the power consumption of the whole society will exceed 14,600-17,300 TWh. 23 Scenario simulation of CNS 0 20 40 60 80 100 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Electrification Rate BLS CNS 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Gw Installed renewable power capacity BLS CNS 0 4000 8000 12000 16000 20000 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 TWh Renewable electricity generation BLS CNS
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