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表1 2005-2050年中国碳排放量预测数据 Table 1 Data of carbon emission prediction in China from 2005 to 2050. 年份Year GDP总量（亿元） 总人口数（万） 人均GDP（万元） 能源强度（吨/万元） Total GDP hundred million CNY Total population104 GDP per capita Energyintensity 104CNY tons10 -4 CNY-1 低增速情境 基准 高增速情境 低增速情境 基准 高增速情境 LEG 情境 HEG LEG 情境 HEG REF REF 2005 184937.37 184937.37 184937.37 130756 1.4144 1.4144 1.4144 1.2761 2006 208381.02 208381.02 208381.02 131448 1.5853 1.5853 1.5853 1.2414 2007 237892.76 237892.76 237892.76 132129 1.8005 1.8005 1.8005 1.1791 2008 260812.94 260812.94 260812.94 132802 1.9639 1.9639 1.9639 1.1175 2009 284844.76 284844.76 284844.76 133450 2.1345 2.1345 2.1345 1.0765 2010 314602.46 314602.46 314602.46 134091 2.3462 2.3462 2.3462 1.0329 2011 343860.13 343860.13 343860.13 134735 2.5521 2.5521 2.5521 1.012 2012 370173.8 370173.8 370173.8 135404 2.7338 2.7338 2.7338 0.9772 2013 396552.01 399156.01 403173.61 136072 2.9143 2.9334 2.9629 0.944 2014 421162.75 426712.12 435345.27 135569.3 3.1066 3.1476 3.2112 0.9119 2015 450886.87 459827.71 473852.76 136151.3 3.3117 3.3773 3.4803 0.8809 2016 482580.33 495381.38 515629.05 136699.4 3.5302 3.6239 3.772 0.8509 2017 516347.61 533524.98 560921.24 137208.8 3.7632 3.8884 4.0881 0.822 2018 552295.16 574415.75 609990.24 137674.6 4.0116 4.1723 4.4307 0.794 2019 590529.03 618214.05 663108.88 138091.4 4.2764 4.4768 4.802 0.767 2020 631159.17 665087.88 720567.11 138454.5 4.5586 4.8037 5.2044 0.741 2021 666729.32 703236.73 773525.26 138764.1 4.8048 5.0679 5.5744 0.7084 2022 704034.72 743289.35 830057.98 139021.2 5.0642 5.3466 5.9707 0.6772 2023 743137.21 785316.45 890374.62 139224.4 5.3377 5.6407 6.3952 0.6474 2024 784096.45 829386.61 954690.62 139371.9 5.6259 5.9509 6.85 0.6189 2025 826983.19 875580.47 1023244.13 139463.9 5.9297 6.2782 7.337 0.5917 2026 871875.28 923986.44 1096292.27 139501.5 6.2499 6.6235 7.8586 0.5656 2027 918855.1 974698.08 1174109.02 139486.1 6.5874 6.9878 8.4174 0.5408 2028 968016.42 1027821.39 1256994.93 139420.3 6.9432 7.3721 9.0159 0.517 2029 1019458.7 1083468.81 1345271.21 139306.8 7.3181 7.7776 9.6569 0.4942 2030 1073293.09 1141765.61 1439288.82 139149.1 7.7133 8.2053 10.3435 0.4725 2031 1119995.33 1197148 1508815.4 138951.1 8.0604 8.6156 10.8586 0.4517 2032 1168418.22 1254882.22 1581278.98 138716.4 8.4231 9.0464 11.3994 0.4318 2033 1218639.84 1315082.57 1656821.9 138448.6 8.8021 9.4987 11.9671 0.4128 2034 1270739.4 1377866.55 1735590.3 138150.8 9.1982 9.9736 12.563 0.3946 2035 1324795.85 1443353.23 1817732.49 137825.5 9.6121 10.4723 13.1887 0.3773 2036 1380889 1511664.62 1903399.97 137474.8 10.0447 10.9959 13.8454 0.3607 2037 1439099.05 1582925.12 1992747.41 137100.4 10.4967 11.5457 14.5349 0.3448 2038 1499511.48 1657267.03 2085939.1 136704.1 10.969 12.123 15.2588 0.3296 2039 1562214.16 1734827.4 2183145.56 136287.5 11.4626 12.7292 16.0187 0.3151 2040 1627295.98 1815746.7 2284540.98 135851.9 11.9785 13.3656 16.8164 0.3013 2041 1677003.41 1891117.04 2358878.44 135398.1 12.3857 13.9671 17.4218 0.2844 2042 1727977.97 1969329.64 2435280.75 134926.2 12.8068 14.5956 18.049 0.2685 2043 1780223.3 2050455.97 2513764.16 134434.9 13.2423 15.2524 18.6987 0.2534 2044 1833738.96 2134564.24 2594339.32 133922.8 13.6925 15.9388 19.3719 0.2392 2045 1888531.34 2221731.99 2677026.56 133389.2 14.1581 16.656 20.0693 0.2258 2046 1944603.35 2312034.19 2761841.37 132833.3 14.6394 17.4055 20.7918 0.2132 2047 2001953.93 2405542.61 2848793.68 132254.2 15.1372 18.1888 21.5403 0.2013 2048 2060583.88 2502332.54 2937896.09 131651.3 15.6518 19.0073 22.3157 0.19 2049 2120494.75 2602481.66 3029162.36 131024.2 16.184 19.8626 23.1191 0.1794 2050 2181682.51 2706062.23 3122598.2 130372.3 16.7342 20.7564 23.9514 0.1693 碳排放强度 （吨/吨） 技术因素 人均碳排放量（吨） 碳排放总量（百万吨） Carbon emissions Technical factors Per capita carbon emissions Total carbon emissions 10 6tons intensity tons tons-1 tons 低增速 基准 高增速 低增速 基准 高增速 情境 情境 情境 情境 情境 情境 LEG REF HEG LEG REF HEG 0.637 1.0601 1.2187 1.2187 1.2187 1593.62 1593.62 1593.62 0.637 1.0513 1.3177 1.3177 1.3177 1732.26 1732.26 1732.26 0.637 1.0426 1.4098 1.4098 1.4098 1862.87 1862.87 1862.87 0.637 1.0339 1.4452 1.4452 1.4452 1919.46 1919.46 1919.46 0.637 1.0253 1.5007 1.5007 1.5007 2002.8 2002.8 2002.8 0.637 1.0168 1.5694 1.5694 1.5694 2104.65 2104.65 2104.65 0.637 1.0084 1.6589 1.6589 1.6589 2235.33 2235.33 2235.33 0.637 1 1.7016 1.7016 1.7016 2304.23 2304.23 2304.23 0.637 0.9917 1.7667 1.7491 1.7377 2404.2 2380.24 2364.71 0.637 0.9835 1.8343 1.7979 1.7745 2486.96 2437.65 2405.94 0.637 0.9753 1.9045 1.8481 1.8122 2593.2 2516.45 2467.52 0.637 0.9672 1.9773 1.8997 1.8506 2703.26 2597.11 2530 0.637 0.9592 2.053 1.9527 1.8899 2817.15 2679.55 2593.28 0.637 0.9512 2.1315 2.0072 1.9299 2934.87 2763.7 2657.28 0.637 0.9433 2.2131 2.0633 1.9709 3056.38 2849.45 2721.85 0.637 0.9355 2.2978 2.1209 2.0127 3181.67 2936.7 2786.89 0.637 0.9277 2.3333 2.1213 2.0112 3238.12 2943.88 2791.05 0.637 0.92 2.3694 2.1218 2.0097 3294.31 2949.95 2794.16 0.637 0.9124 2.4061 2.1222 2.0082 3350.18 2954.88 2796.17 0.637 0.9048 2.4433 2.1226 2.0067 3405.62 2958.63 2797.06 0.637 0.8973 2.4811 2.1231 2.0052 3460.59 2961.2 2796.84 0.637 0.8899 2.5195 2.1235 2.0038 3515.08 2962.61 2795.53 0.637 0.8825 2.5585 2.124 2.0023 3569.08 2962.91 2793.15 0.637 0.8752 2.5981 2.1244 2.0008 3622.59 2962.13 2789.77 0.637 0.8679 2.6383 2.1249 1.9993 3675.65 2960.33 2785.44 0.637 0.8607 2.6791 2.1253 1.9978 3728.29 2957.6 2780.23 0.637 0.8535 2.6665 2.1157 1.9793 3705.41 2940.01 2750.53 0.637 0.8465 2.6539 2.1061 1.961 3681.69 2921.74 2720.43 0.637 0.8394 2.6413 2.0965 1.9428 3657.23 2902.89 2690 0.637 0.8325 2.6289 2.087 1.9248 3632.14 2883.52 2659.33 0.637 0.8256 2.6165 2.0776 1.9069 3606.48 2863.69 2628.47 0.637 0.8187 2.6041 2.0682 1.8892 3580.32 2843.46 2597.47 0.637 0.8119 2.5918 2.0588 1.8717 3553.71 2822.86 2566.38 0.637 0.8052 2.5796 2.0495 1.8544 3526.71 2801.95 2535.23 0.637 0.7985 2.5674 2.0402 1.8372 3499.36 2780.75 2504.07 0.637 0.7919 2.5553 2.0309 1.8201 3471.71 2759.3 2472.92 0.637 0.7853 2.4783 1.9868 1.7619 3355.85 2690.39 2385.78 0.637 0.7788 2.4036 1.9437 1.7055 3243.38 2622.81 2301.37 0.637 0.7723 2.3312 1.9015 1.6509 3134.19 2556.53 2219.61 0.637 0.7659 2.2609 1.8602 1.5981 3028.17 2491.51 2140.38 0.637 0.7595 2.1928 1.8199 1.5469 2925.22 2427.71 2063.62 0.637 0.7532 2.1267 1.7804 1.4974 2825.25 2365.12 1989.25 0.637 0.747 2.0626 1.7417 1.4495 2728.17 2303.69 1917.19 0.637 0.7408 2.0005 1.7039 1.4031 2633.9 2243.41 1847.37 0.637 0.7346 1.9402 1.6669 1.3582 2542.36 2184.25 1779.72 0.637 0.7285 1.8817 1.6307 1.3147 2453.49 2126.21 1714.19
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