2022年全球矿业展望（英）-毕马威.pdf-solarbe文库

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Global Mining Outlook 2022 Extracting key insights for mining leaders KPMG International home.kpmg/miningE ver since we began our global survey of mining executives 12 years ago, one thing has been constant the top risk for the industry has always been commodity prices. So this year marks quite a moment commodities markets have lost their place at the top of the risk radar, overtaken by environmental risks and regulations. The environmental, social and governance ESG agenda looms large the third top risk community relations and social license to operate is also related to ESG. For an industry that inherently operates over the long term, these shifts in a short space of time are striking. They underline the extent to which climate change-related issues and ESG more broadly are reframing corporate priorities in mining, as in almost every business sector. They also influence the attractiveness of the industry to the new and diverse talent it requires. ESG is becoming ever more top of mind in mining company boardrooms, but this doesn’t mean that other opportunities and risks have fallen away. Commodity prices will always be the commercial lynchpin of the industry’s fortunes and with prices riding high, executives in this year’s survey Foreword Changing times As the world’s supply chains look to meet rising demands, the mining industry finds itself increasingly in the spotlight, being challenged to quickly deliver the materials the world needs in a way that is acceptable to more and more stakeholders. In my view, transparency and high-quality engagement will be critical. For those who get it right, I believe the rewards will be significant” Trevor Hart Global Head of Mining KPMG International are generally in a confident mood. The risk is more around price volatility, with some marked swings of late challenging established LME trading systems, with temporary suspension of nickel trading as a result. 1 Another dramatic difference this year is that the pandemic has disappeared from the top 10, after leaping in at number two last year. Now it seems like the industry regards COVID-19 as something it can incorporate into business as usual as global demand for commodities to power the economic recovery builds. However, the pandemic has certainly left its legacy. Supply chain issues have become more prominent. Political instability, nationalization and the global trade conflict threat have all become front-line factors too. Our survey was carried out before the terrible events in Ukraine unfolded. I suspect that if we were to re-run it now, these risks would be appreciably higher still. From my observation, the opportunities for the industry are outstanding. The importance of the sector for the world’s future has been gaining more and more prominence and I believe it finds itself in such a strong position to deliver. 1 Reuters, LME forced to halt nickel trading, cancel deals, after prices top 100,000, Eric Onstad, March 2022. Global Mining Outlook 2022 2 © 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved.Contents Shifts in the risk landscape 4 Confidence and capital 7 ESG with everything 10 Technology transformation 14 Talent challenge 17 Mining the data Country perspectives 19 KPMG’s Global Mining practice 22 Methodology and acknowledgements 24 About the authors 25 Global Mining Outlook 2022 3 © 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved.Shifts in the risk landscape W hile the biggest external risk event seen in a generation the global COVID-19 pandemic has receded, it is notable that the top risks facing the mining industry generally come from outside rather than within. “Bread and butter” industry risks such as commodity prices, permitting risks and access to reserves are still key issues, but it is the risks that arise from externalities, such as environmental regulations and geopolitical factors, that are really taking up executive thinking time. The standout feature of this year’s results is that two ESG-related risks are in the top three. We will delve deeper into ESG shortly. Meanwhile, political instability and global trade conflict complete the top five. Given the events in Eastern Europe, these concerns may be even higher right now. 54 agree that the mining industry needs to consolidate to manage costs and risks more effectively going forward. Global Mining Outlook 2022 4 © 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved.Certainly, our research underlines how quickly political scenarios and risk landscapes can change in real time. On a regional basis, executives in Europe, the Middle East and Africa EMA were least worried about political instability. In our view, this will surely have changed now. Those most worried by political instability were respondents in Latin America, which is consistent with The Economist’s recent Democracy Index findings for the region 2 . Three of the top risks identified trade war, regulatory shocks, political stability could be described more broadly as geopolitical risks. Unsurprisingly, businesses are feeling the impact of growing geopolitical volatility in a world of uncertain power dynamics. The most precious commodity for global businesses to plan, invest and grow is stability. This is becoming a rare commodity in today’s fractured world. We believe more time, money and effort will have to be invested by mining company boards and strategy teams to help navigate political minefields. On the positive side, last year’s concerns over the risk of an economic downturn have dropped most likely due to the subsidence of the pandemic during 2021 and the transition into the recovery phase. Alongside this, access to capital has fallen out of the industry top 10 from last year, indicating that mining organizations are more confident in their ability to raise funding and investment. Nevertheless, when executives were asked to rank risks specifically for their own companies rather than on an industry-wide basis, it does feature in the top 10, suggesting some unevenness according to the individual profile and commodity specialization of the business. Those specializing in coal, for example, may find it becomes harder to secure investment in the future. Inflation hovers as a new concern, just on the fringes of the top 10. Certainly, supply chain issues the eighth top risk have been driving a rise in the cost of materials and supplies, while economies globally are beginning to wrestle with inflationary pressures. In our view, energy costs for businesses are rocketing and there is also upward pressure on wages. Over half 54 percent of executives agree that some consolidation is needed in the industry to manage costs rising inflation will only add to this. There is another notable new entrant the talent crisis. Attracting and retaining the right people is becoming an increasingly live issue for the industry. On an industry-wide basis, the talent crisis is a top 10 issue, while when asked about risks for their own specific organization, executives rank attracting and retaining talent at number seven. The workforce is an aging one and attracting a new generation of talent with the right skillsets for today’s shifting priorities such as technology and ESG-related expertise is challenging. It’s an issue that confronts almost every player in the industry and one that we discuss in more detail a little later on. The workforce is an aging one and attracting new-generation talent with the right skillsets for today’s shifting priorities such as technology and ESG-related specialisms is challenging. 2 The Economist, Democracy Index 2021 less than half the world lives in a democracy, February 2022. Global Mining Outlook 2022 5 © 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved.Top risks for the mining industry 2022 2021 Commodity price risk Community relations and social license to operate Political instability/nationalization Ability to access and replace reserves Global trade conict Permitting risk Supply chain risks Talent crisis Regulatory and compliance changes/burden Commodity price risk Global pandemic Economic downturn/uncertainty Community relations and social license to operate Environmental risks, including new regulations Permitting risk Political instability Access to capital, including liquidity Ability to access and replace reserves Regulatory and compliance changes/burden Rank 06 02 07 03 08 04 09 05 10 Environmental risks, including new regulations 01 NEW Global Mining Outlook 2022 6 © 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved.Confidence and capital T he world needs minerals and indeed, as the move towards decarbonization and energy transition accelerates, minerals like lithium, cobalt, graphite and others could see enormous growth in demand as the KPMG report Resourcing the energy transition has explored. Therefore, it is no surprise that mining executives are generally confident about the future, with a rise in optimism compared to last year’s survey. Over half 56 percent say they are more optimistic about the outlook for their organization compared to a year ago, including nearly one-fifth 18 percent who are “significantly” more optimistic. Over six in 10 62 percent are confident or very confident about growth prospects, albeit this is fractionally down from a year ago 66 percent. “From what we’ve observed, commodity prices are sky high if volatile and this is generally underpinning industry confidence,” observes Trevor Hart of KPMG. 62 of respondents are condent in the growth prospects for their organization over the next 12 months. Global Mining Outlook 2022 7 © 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved.More than 6 in 10 agree that mining companies need to embrace new business models such as strategic partnerships, private equity and public-private partnerships. As we have noted, access to capital has dropped out of the top 10 industry risk list and when asked specifically about the topic, executives’ responses show a general improvement in the position. Thirty-seven percent agree that access to traditional sources of capital debt/equity has improved over the last year, a rise from 32 percent in the 2021 survey, and there has been an equivalent drop in those who agree that access to capital is a significant constraint. However, responses are not uniform, indicating that while the general trend is improving, for some organizations access to capital is challenging. And on an individual company basis, it sits at number 10 on the top risk list. Perhaps it is as a result of this that we see some interesting trends emerging. Firstly, nearly two-thirds of respondents 62 percent agree or strongly agree that companies need to embrace new business models, such as strategic partnerships, private equity and public-private partnerships. This is especially marked among organizations with a market capitalization of less than US5 billion. There are signs that a combination of funding factors and the increasing ESG-related scrutiny, reporting and regulatory requirements placed on public companies is leading more mining businesses to contemplate alternative models. Healthy cash and good access to capital are indications that MA is on the agenda. But for some mining companies, access to capital is harder. Combined with rising regulatory requirements for public companies, we may see more mining assets going private.” Richard Metzner KPMG in the US Top strategies for growth Innovation and technological transformation Productivity gains from existing operations Organic growth 01 Mergers and acquisitions 02 03 04 Global Mining Outlook 2022 8 © 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved.2021 2022 32 37 63 Agree 54 Agree Global Mining Outlook 2022 14 It is increasingly difcult for a public mining company to succeed with the traditional business model. Today’s companies need to embrace new business models such as strategic partnerships, private equity funding and public-private partnerships. The ability for the mining industry to access traditional sources of capital has improved over the last 12 months. Less than US5 billion More than US5 billion Secondly, there has been an increase in those businesses saying that mergers and acquisitions MAs will be an important strategy to achieve their growth objectives. Organic growth is still seen as the number one method for most businesses 56 percent as it was last year, but MA is a clear second at 37 percent, up from 31 percent a year ago. MA has long been a feature of the industry, with big players buying smaller businesses as a faster route to increasing footprint and production than the long process of starting a new greenfield site. The signs are that MA activity is set to rise further in the years ahead albeit, if valuations stay high, businesses may weigh up the cost of MA against investing in their existing brownfield sites. The best opportunities are around existing mines. So, the most cost-effective way to find more profitable ores is through the drill bit, rather than paying premium for companies that are already fully valued. Although there are always exceptions to that.” Jeff Parr Vice Chairman Agnico Eagle Mines Limited Global Mining Outlook 2022 9 Global Mining Outlook 2022 9 © 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved.ESG with everything I n the wake of last year’s COP26 summit, countries have committed to ambitious net zero and decarbonization targets including around deforestation and for these to become a reality, companies will have to adopt stretching targets too. This places a focus on industries with a high carbon footprint and environmental impact, such as mining. The impact of this is not being underestimated by mining executives nearly three-quarters of them 72 percent agree or strongly agree that ESG will be a cause of major disruption in the industry over the coming three years. They also recognize that ESG issues will drive significant business model change. Over eight in 10 executives 84 percent agree or strongly agree that success in the long run will become increasingly dependent on defining success in more