中国碳中和之路：可再生能源的视角和角色（英）-IRENA.pdf-solarbe文库

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China s route to carbon neutrality Perspectives and the role of renewables© IRENA 2022 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. ISBN 978-92-9260-449-3 IRENA 2022, China s route to carbon neutrality Perspectives and the role of renewables, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA serves as the principal platform for international co- operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge, and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. An intergovernmental organisation established in 2011, IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org Acknowledgements IRENA would like to express sincere appreciation to the experts who reviewed the report. Insightful comments and constructive suggestions were provided by the Energy Research Institute of the Academy of Macroeconomic Research, China. Special thanks go to Paul Komor, who provided helpful feedback and advice. IRENA colleagues Herib Blanco, Seungwoo Kang, Martina Lyons, Daniel Russo, Francisco Boshell, Carlos Fernandez, Faran Rana and Jinlei Feng provided valuable reviews and input. Contributing authors This report was prepared, under the guidance of Dolf Gielen Director, IRENA Innovation and T echnology Centre by Paul Durrant former IRENA staff, Nicholas Wagner, Yong Chen IRENA and Yufeng Yang consultant. Disclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed, and the presentation of material herein, do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.CHINA S ROUTE TO CARBON NEUTRALITY 3 CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 IRENA’s technology-focused analysis 7 Areas for action and initial recommendations 7 1. CHINA’S CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION GOALS IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT 17 1.1 Global context 17 1.2 China’s unique characteristics 18 2. SHAPING A STRATEGY FOR THE 2020s AND BEYOND 20 2.1 Developing and delivering an integrated long-term energy plan 21 2.2 Maintaining energy efficiency improvements as a priority 22 2.3 Accelerating the phase-down of coal consumption 23 2.4 Accelerating the transition towards renewable power 25 2.5 Reforming power networks 27 2.6 Increasing the electrification of end-use sectors 3 1 2.7 Expanding the direct use of renewables, particularly biomass for energy purposes 34 2.8 Scaling up the production and use of hydrogen and synthetic fuels 36 2.9 Supporting cities as champions of low-carbon living 39 2.10 Continuing progress in light-duty transport and broadening to heavy-duty and long-haul modes 40 2.11 Laying the groundwork for industrial sectors to achieve net zero emissions 44 2.12 Continuing to support technology RD IRENA, 2022b – which is focused on a scenario consistent with limiting global temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees Celsius °C, by eliminating global CO 2 emissions between now and 2050. This paper summarises key insights from these and other analytical reports and explores their relevance to China’s specific context. The paper aims to support learning from global experiences, prompt discussions and inform the further work needed to chart the path to carbon neutrality in China by 2060. Areas for action and recommendations As a starting point for discussions and to identify priorities for deeper analysis, this paper identifies 13 priorities for stronger action, together with recommendations 1. Developing and delivering an integrated long-term energy plan Effective and integrated energy planning is fundamental for a successful energy transition and can deliver the enabling conditions that the energy transition would require. The energy transition is not something that can be accomplished by a single governmental body. Multiple institutions must work together. In the context of the net zero goal and building on good practice in China to date, further co-ordination is needed to establish a strong governance structure, not only between energy planning agencies and institutions but also between the energy and climate communities. China has a strong track record of effective development and implementation of Five-Year Plans. In recent years, long-term perspectives and guidelines provided by top policy makers give context and provide strategic policy objectives. These need to be operationalised further. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CHINA TO EXPLORE INCLUDE Co-develop scenario-based long-term strategies and plans for carbon neutrality by 2060, including at the national and the sub-regional/provincial levels and by sector. Utilise global best practice for long-term scenario development, drawing on experience and best practices from around the world through IRENA’s Long-Term Energy Scenarios Network.8 2. Maintaining energy efficiency improvements as a priority Maximising energy and resource efficiency and minimising the energy and resource intensity of economic activities is usually the most cost-effective strategy to reduce energy consumption as well as emissions. Significant potential exists for efficiency improvements in China in many areas, and synergies remain to be exploited between increased electrification of end-use sectors and improved efficiency of energy service supply. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CHINA TO EXPLORE INCLUDE Maintain a strategic focus on maximising energy and resource efficiency and minimising the energy and resource intensity of economic activities. Exploit additional opportunities for improvements, including accelerating the growth of the service sector, promoting a circular economy and utilising digital technology. 3. Accelerating the phase-down of coal consumption To achieve emission peaking before 2030 and net zero by 2060, the total consumption of fossil fuels must be capped and subsequently reduced, while the phase-down of coal for power generation is a priority. The principal barriers are primarily not technological renewable power technologies constitute a proven alternative today or economic renewable power is cheaper than alternatives in most circumstances. Today’s barriers are mostly related to changes in policies and legislation. In some cases, local socio-economic considerations play a role, with some regional jobs and local economies being heavily dependent on fossil fuels in the Chinese case, predominantly on coal. Addressing these barriers will require clear political direction coupled with careful transition planning to mitigate socio-economic impacts that may arise due to transformation of the current energy systems. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CHINA TO EXPLORE INCLUDE Progressively strengthen China’s national emissions trading scheme to ramp up carbon emission reductions from the most emitting plants, notably coal-fired power plants. Reduce coal consumption further during the period of the 15 th Five-Year Energy Plan, which would be an important signal for the long-term transition away from coal. Draw on a growing body of evidence and experience internationally, through co-operation and dialogue, to enable China to make well-informed decisions on how to develop economic transition strategies for coal-reliant regions with as few adverse impacts as possible on local economies. CHINA S ROUTE TO CARBON NEUTRALITY 9 4. Accelerating the transition towards renewable power Globally there is a need to triple the power supply by 2050 from the current level, as the role of electrification and the use of electrofuels e-fuels rises. Cost reductions mean that renewables are now the sensible economic supply choice. Globally 75 of onshore wind and 40 of utility- scale solar PV produced electricity is at present cheaper than fossil fuel-based alternatives. Renewables should therefore be the preferred route for power generation, and solar power, wind power and hydropower should become the backbone of China’s power supply in the future. Renewables can potentially meet more than 90 of Chinese power demand by 2050, with a solar and wind energy share of over 60 IRENA, 2020b. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CHINA TO EXPLORE INCLUDE Exploit China’s strengths and experience with renewables to accelerate deployment. China now has the capacity and experience to step up the deployment rate at an even faster pace. Stimulate the development and uptake of emerging renewable energy technologies such as offshore wind, which could play a significant role. Offshore wind farms located close to load centres along China’s eastern coast reduce the need for long-haul transmission from remote western regions. 5. Reforming power networks The variability of wind and solar power can pose challenges for safe and stable operation of the power system, but a growing range of solutions exist to counter that by enhancing the flexibility of energy systems. Globally the renewable energy share in total power generation should reach 90 by 2050, and nearly three-quarters of the total installed capacity and more than 63 of all power generation should come from variable renewable energy resources, up from around 20 of the installed capacity and nearly 10 of power generation globally today IRENA, 2021a. China needs to consider how to transition its power systems to a hybrid configuration that combines both centralised and distributed power generation systems. China also needs a more flexible inter- regional electricity market to sustain the transition. Such changes can be enabled by the adoption of systemic innovations – an approach to facilitate the diffusion of innovative technologies with improved enabling environments such as business models, market structure, new regulations and overall system operations. Thus, the flexibility in energy systems could be improved and more variable renewable energy can be integrated in the power mix.