全球能源进展报告：跟踪可持续发展目标7（英）-IEA&IRENA.pdf-solarbe文库

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THE ENERGY PROGRESS REPORT 2022 TRACKING SDG7 A joint report of the custodian agencies United Nations Statistics Division © 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone 202-473 1000 Internet www.worldbank.org This work is a joint product of the staf_f of the five custodian agencies, namely the World Bank, the International Energy Agency, the International Renewable Energy Agency, the United Nations, and the World Health Organization, with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the custodian agencies, their respective Board of Executive Directors or equivalent, members or the governments they represent. 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Contact pubrightsworldbank.org for permission to use it Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking – © WHO, 2022. Contact permissionswho.int for permission to use it. Renewable Energy – © IEA, IRENA and UN, 2022. Contact publicationsirena.org; Rightsiea.org and permissionsun.org for permission to use it. Energy Ef_f_iciency – © IEA and UN, 2022. Contact Rightsiea.org and permissionsun.org for permission to use it. International Public Financial Flows - © IRENA, 2022. Contact publicationsirena.org for permission to use it. Outlook for SDG 7 – © Shutterstock/Wang An Qi. Contact publicationsirena.org and Rightsiea.org for permission to use it. Tracking SDG7 progress across targets indicators and data – ©IEA, IRENA, UN, World Bank and WHO, 2022. Contact pubrights worldbank.org for permission to use it. Cover photo Getty Images/Brenda Sangi Arruda Report designed by Duina Reyes A joint report of the custodian agencies United Nations Statistics Division THE ENERGY PROGRESS REPORT 2022 TRACKING SDG7 iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS PARTNERSHIP The Energy Progress Report is a product of close collaboration among the five SDG 7 custodian agencies in the form of a specially constituted in a Steering Group International Energy Agency IEA International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA United Nations Statistics Division UNSD World Bank World Health Organization WHO The Steering Group was supported by the SDG7 Technical Advisory Group composed as follows. African Development Bank AfDB Clean Cooking Alliance Denmark Ministry of Foreign Af_fairs ENERGIA European Commission FIA Foundation Food and Agricultural Organization FAO Germany Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development Hivos International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Labour Organization ILO Islamic Development Bank Kenya Ministry of Energy to remain committed to the need for continued action on af_fordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all; and to maintain a strategic focus on the vulnerable countries needing the most support. © UNHCR/Diana Diaz 2 TRACKING SDG 7 The Energy Progress Report 2022 16.1 share of total final energy consumption from renewables 17.7 share of total final energy consumption from renewables 2019 3 billion people without access to clean cooking 2.4 billion people without access to clean cooking 2020 5.6 MJ/USD primary energy intensity 4.7 MJ/USD primary energy intensity 2019 people without access to electricity billion 1.2 people without access to electricity 2020 million 733 11.2 USD billion international financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy 10.9 USD billion international financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy 2019 INDICATOR 2010 LATEST YEAR 7.1.2 Proportion of population with primary reliance on clean fuels and technology for cooking 7.2.1 Renewable energy share in total final energy consumption 7.3.1 Energy intensity measured as a ratio of primary 7.a.1 International financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy research and development and renewable energy 7.1.1 proportion of population with access to electricity The following highlights introduce the key energy indicators. FIGURE ES.1 Primary indicators of global progress toward the SDGuni00A07 targets 3 Executive Summary Access to electricity. SDG target 7.1 is universal access to af_fordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy services; indicator 7.1.1 focuses on access to electricity. Recent progress in access to electricity was mixed, as is the outlook for 2030. The global electricity access rate rose markedly between 2010 and 2020, from 83 percent to 91 percent. The number of unserved people fell from 1.2 billion in 2010 to 733 billion in 2020. The pace of annual access growth was faster than in previous years, as access infrastructure projects were finalized, but the annual rate of growth in access slowed from 0.8 percentage points in 2010–18 to 0.5 percentage points in 2018–20, because of the complexity of reaching the remaining unserved populations and the potential impacts of COVID-19. Meeting the 2030 target requires increasing the number of new connections to 100 million a year. At current rates of progress, the world will reach only 92 percent electrification by 2030. Clean cooking solutions. Universal access to clean cooking is the goal for SDGuni00A07.1.2. On a global scale, the number of people gaining access to clean cooking increased significantly. More than 65 countries have already included household energy or clean cooking related goals in their Nationally Determined Contributions NDCs in the lead-up to the 2021 UN Climate Change Summit, COP26 Clean Cooking Alliance 2021. However, as in previous years, population growth outpaced these improvements, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. As a result, the total number of people lacking access to clean cookingreferred to here as the “access deficit” in some regionshas stagnated for decades. In 2000–10, this number was close to 3 billion people. It dropped to 2.4 billion people 2.1–2.7 in 2020. 1 Improvements occurred in Eastern Asia and South-eastern Asia since 2000 and in Central Asia and Southern Asia since 2010. In contrast, the access deficit in Sub-Saharan Africa has nearly doubled since 1990. It rose by more than 50 percent since 2000, reaching a total of 923 million 898–946 people in 2020. A multisectoral, coordinated ef_fort is needed to achieve the SDGuni00A07 target of universal access to clean cooking by 2030. Without increased ef_fort, 2.1 billion people will still lack access to clean cooking in 2030. Learning from the successes and challenges faced by countries that have attempted to design and implement clean household energy policies is critical. Renewable energy. Ensuring access to af_fordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all implies an accelerated deployment of renewable energy sources in electricity, heat, and transport. Although there is no quantitative milestone for SDGuni00A07.2, custodian agencies assess that the current pace of renewable energy uptake needs to rise significantly, to increase the share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption TFEC, the primary indicator for SDGuni00A07.2. Despite continued disruptions in economic activity and supply chains, renewable energy consumption grew through the pandemic, in contrast with other energy sources. Electricity saw record shares of renewables in new capacity additions in 2021. The positive global and regional trajectories masks the fact that the countries most in need of increased access lag others, however, including in terms of installed capacity to generate renewable electricity. Moreover, rising commodity, energy and shipping prices, as well as restrictive trade measures, have increased the cost of producing and transporting solar photovoltaic PV modules, wind turbines, and biofuels worldwide, adding uncertainties for future renewable energy projects. Renewable shares would need to reach well over 30 percent of TFEC by 2030 to be on track for reaching net-zero energy emissions by 2050. Achieving this milestone would require strengthening policy support in all sectors and implementing ef_fective tools to further mobilize private capital, especially in least- developed countries, landlocked developing countries, and small island developing countries. Energy ef_f_iciency. SDG target 7.3 aims to double the annual global rate of improvement in primary energy intensity in 2010–30 versus 1990–2010 to 2.6 percent. 2 In 2010–19, global annual improvements in energy intensity averaged around 1.9 percent, well below the levels needed. To make up for lost ground, the average annual rate of improvement now has to reach 3.2 percent to reach SDGuni00A07.3’s target. This rate would need to be even higherconsistently over 4 percent for the rest of this decadeif the world is to reach net-zero emissions from the energy sector by 2050, as envisioned in the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. 1 Parenthetical figures appearing after estimates throughout the executive summary are 95 percent uncertainty intervals, as defined in the methodology section at the end of the access to clean cooking chapter. 2 Revisions of underlying statistical data and methodological improvements explain the slight changes in historical growth rates from previous editions. The SDGuni00A07.3 target of improving energy intensity by 2.6 percent per year in 2010–30 remains the same, although the latest data for the period 1990–2010 show a rate of improvement in energy intensity of 1.2 percent per year. 4 TRACKING SDG 7 The Energy Progress Report 2022 Early estimates for 2020 point to a substantial decrease in intensity because of the COVID-19 crisis, partly as a result in the slowdown in real energy ef_f_iciency. The outlook for 2021 suggests a return to a 1.9 percent rate of improvement, a return to the average rate during the previous decade, thanks to a sharper focus on energy ef_f_iciency policies, particularly in COVID-19 recovery packages. However, to bring the SDGuni00A07.3 target within reach, energy ef_f_iciency policies and investment need to be scaled up significantly. International public financial flows. Although the private sector finances most renewable energy investments, the public sector remains a critical source of finance, particularly for many developing countries. Tracking of SDGuni00A07.a.1 indicator shows that international public financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy decreased for the second year in a row, falling to USDuni00A010.9 billion in 2019. This level represents a 23 percent decrease from the USDuni00A014.2 billion provided in 2018, a 25 percent decline from the 2010–19 average, and a more than 50 percent drop from the peak of USDuni00A024.7 billion in 2017. Although there is no quantitative target for international public financial flows to developing countries under indicator 7.a.1, the overarching target of SDGuni00A07.a points to the continued importance of enhancing international cooperation. Flows need to be increased to realize SDGuni00A07 as well as enable the achievement of related SDGs including SDG 13 on climate, especially in light of the reduced fiscal space in many developing countries and the imperatives to ensure a rapid and sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Indicators and data for tracking progress. Tracking global progress for SDGuni00A07 targets requires high-quality and reliable data for informed