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© 2021 United Nations Environment Programme ISBN 978-92-807-3890-2 Job number DEW/2388/NA This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The United Nations Environment Programme would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Secretariat of the United Nations. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Director, Communication Division, United Nations Environment Programme, P. O. Box 30552, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. 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Our distribution policy aims to reduce UNEP s carbon footprint.The Heat Is On A world of climate promises not yet delivered Emissions Gap Report 2021V Emissions Gap Report 2021 The Heat Is On Acknowledgements Acknowledgements The United Nations Environment Programme UNEP would like to thank the members of the steering committee, the lead and contributing authors, reviewers and the secretariat for their contribution to the preparation of this assessment report. Authors and reviewers have contributed to the report in their individual capacities. Their affiliations are only mentioned for identification purposes. Steering committee Juliane Berger German Environment Agency, John Christensen CONCITO [Denmark’s climate think tank], Navroz K. Dubash Centre for Policy Research, India, James Foster UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Samuel Karslake UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Mike Keoghan UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Gerd Leipold Climate Transparency, Jian Liu UNEP, Simon Maxwell independent, Surabi Menon ClimateWorks Foundation, Bert Metz European Climate Foundation, Katia Simeonova independent, Oksana Tarasova World Meteorological Organization and Xuehong Wang United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC] Authors Chapter 1 Authors Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, Denmark, John Christensen CONCITO [Denmark’s climate think tank] Chapter 2 Lead authors Takeshi Kuramochi NewClimate Institute, Germany, Michel den Elzen PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands, Taryn Fransen World Resources Institute, USA, Glen Peters Center for International Climate Research [CICERO], Norway Contributing authors Andrzej Ancygier Climate Analytics, Germany, Ayşe Ceren Sarı SHURA, Turkey, Anna Chapman Climate Analytics, Australia, Monica Crippa Joint Research Centre [JRC], Italy, Mengpin Ge World Resources Institute, USA, Johannes Gütschow Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, Mariana Gutierrez Iniciativa Climatica, Mexico, Diego Guizzardi JRC, Italy, Gahee Han Solutions For Our Climate, Republic of Korea, Niklas Höhne NewClimate Institue, Germany, Louise Jeffery NewClimate Institute, Germany, Kimon Keramidas JRC, Spain, Caroline Lee Canadian Institute for Climate Choices, Canada, Enrique Maurtua Konstantinidis Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales [FARN], Argentina, Victor Maxwell Climate Analytics, Australia, Malte Meinshausen University of Melbourne, Australia, Marilena Muntean JRC, Italy, Leonardo Nascimento NewClimate Institute, Germany, Jos Olivier PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands, Mark Roelfsema PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands, Efisio Solazzo JRC, Italy, Hajime Takizawa Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan, Kentaro Tamura Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan, Heleen van Soest PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands, Jorge Villareal Iniciativa Climatica, Mexico, Sachi Vohra The Energy and Resources Institute [TERI], India, Lisa Wijayani Institute for Essential Services Reform [IESR], Indonesia, William Wills Eos Estratégia International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA], Austria, Stephen M. Smith Oxford University, UK, Sha Yu Pacific Northwest National Laboratory [PNNL], USA Contributing authors Jiyong Eom Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology [KAIST], Republic of Korea, Taryn Fransen World Resources Institute, USA, Claire Fyson Climate Analytics, Germany, Thomas Hale Oxford University, UK, Frederic Hans NewClimate Institute, Germany, John Lang Energy International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA], Austria Contributing authors Ioannis Dafnomilis PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands, Johannes Gütschow Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, Kimon Keramidas Joint Research Centre [JRC], Spain, Robin Lamboll Imperial College London, UK, Jared Lewis University of Melbourne, Australia, Malte Meinshausen University of Melbourne, Australia, Zebedee Nicholls University of Melbourne, Australia Chapter 5 Lead authors Brian O’Callaghan University of Oxford, UK; Harvard University, USA, Jean-Paul Adam United Nations Economic Commission for Africa [UNECA], Ethiopia Contributing authors Bartholomew Armah UNECA, Ethiopia, Jean Paul Boketsu Bofili UNECA, Ethiopia, Hopestone Kayiska Chavula UNECA, Ethiopia, Frederic Hans NewClimate Institute, Germany, Andrew Prag Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD], France, David Tritsch University of Oxford, UK Chapter 6 Lead authors Drew Shindell Duke University, USA, Marielle Saunois Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin [UVSQ], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l Environnement [LSCE], France VI Emissions Gap Report 2021 The Heat Is On Contributing authors Dominik Brunner Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology [EMPA], Switzerland, Lena Höglund-Isaksson International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA], Austria, Kevin Karl Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO], Italy, Euan Nisbet Royal Holloway, University of London, UK, Stefan Schwietzke Environmental Defense Fund [EDF], USA, Francesco Tubiello FAO, Italy Chapter 7 Lead authors Sha Yu Pacific Northwest National Laboratory [PNNL], USA, Maosheng Duan Tsinghua University, China, Jae Edmonds PNNL, USA Contributing authors Katherine Calvin PNNL, USA, Stefano De Clara International Carbon Action Partnership [ICAP], Germany, Dirk Forrister International Emissions Trading Association [IETA], Switzerland, Stephanie La Hoz Theuer adelphi, Germany, Luca Lo Re International Energy Agency [IEA], France, Ruben Lubowski Environmental Defense Fund [EDF], USA, Axel Michaelowa Perspectives and University of Zurich, Switzerland, Clayton Munnings University of California, Berkeley, USA, Karen Holm Olsen UNEP DTU Partnership, Denmark, Mandy Rambharos Eskom, South Africa, Chandra Shekhar Sinha World Bank, USA, Detlef van Vuuren PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands Reviewers Jesica Andrews UNEP Finance Initiative, Juliane Berger German Environment Agency, Thomas Bernheim European Commission Directorate-General for Climate Action, Nathan Borgford-Parnell Scientific Advisory Panel and Climate and Clean Air Coalition [CCAC], Derik Broekhoff Stockholm Environment Institute, Louise Burrows UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Manfredi Caltagirone UNEP, Cyril Cassisa BHP, Oliver Chaplin UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, John Christensen CONCITO [Denmark’s climate think tank], Laura Cozzi International Energy Agency [IEA], Navroz K. Dubash Centre for Policy Research, India, Virender K. Duggal Asian Development Bank, James Dyke University of Exeter, Veronika Elgart Federal Office for the Environment of the Swiss Confederation, Kate Ervine Saint Mary’s University, Kai Remco Fisher UNEP Finance Initiative, Shinichiro Fujimori Kyoto University, James Foster UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Oliver Geden German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Muhammad Arif Goheer Global Change Impact Studies Centre, Martin Hession European Commission Directorate-General for Climate Action, Andrea Hinwood UNEP, Andrew Howard Koru Climate, Jason Jabbour UNEP, Yasuko Kameyama National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, Maarten Kappelle UNEP, Karsten Karschunke German Environment Agency, Samuel Karslake UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Mike Keoghan UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Katre Kets European Commission Directorate-General for Climate Action, Gerardus Klaassen European Commission Directorate- General for Climate Action, Gerd Leipold Climate Transparency, Thomas Liesch Allianz, Jian Liu UNEP, Michael Luker UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, James Mabbutt UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Kathleen McAfee San Francisco State University, Simon Maxwell independent, Surabi Menon ClimateWorks Foundation, Bert Metz European Climate Foundation, Brendan Moore University of East Anglia, Susan Mutebi-Richards UNEP, Nick Nuttall We Don’t Have Time, Miles Perry European Commission Directorate-General for Climate Action, Frederik Pischke German Environment Agency, Rula Qalyoubi UNEP, Mark Radka UNEP, Akkihebbal Ramaiah Ravishankara Colorado State University, Yann Robiou du Pont Climate Energy College, Katie Ross World Resources Institute, Christian Schoder World Bank, Himanshu Sharma UNEP, Katia Simeonova independent, Thomas Spencer IEA, Jamal Srouji World Resources Institute, Oksana Tarasova World Meteorological Organization, Jacopo Tattini IEA, Melvin van Velthoven European Commission Directorate-General for Climate Action, Xuehong Wang United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], Carsten Warnecke New Climate Institute, Bob Watson East Anglia University, Daniel Wetzel IEA, Zhao Xiusheng Tsinghua University, Jinhua Zhang UNEP, Yuqiang Zhang Duke University, Edoardo Zandri UNEP, Caroline Zimm International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA] Chief scientific editors Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, John Christensen CONCITO [Denmark’s climate think tank] Editorial support Julia Rocha Romero UNEP DTU Partnership Secretariat, production and coordination Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, Julia Rocha Romero UNEP DTU Partnership, Kaisa Uusimaa UNEP, Maarten Kappelle UNEP, Edoardo Zandri UNEP Media and launch support Daniel Cooney UNEP, David Cole UNEP, Katie Elles UNEP, Florian Fussstetter UNEP, Maria Vittoria Galassi UNEP, Nancy Groves UNEP, Rune Kier UNEP, Viola Kup UNEP, Nicolien Schoneveld-de Lange UNEP, Michael Logan UNEP, Beverley McDonald UNEP, Pooja Munshi UNEP, Keishamaza Rukikaire UNEP, Laila Saada UNEP, R e a g a n S i r e n g o U N E P , N e h a S u d U N E P a n d s e v e r a l other members of the UNEP Communication Division, Mette Annelie Rasmussen UNEP DTU Partnership, Lasse Hemmingsen UNEP DTU Partnership, Monna Hammershøy Blegvad UNEP DTU PartnershipVII Emissions Gap Report 2021 The Heat Is On Design and layout Joseph Sebastian cover, Strategic Agenda figures and layout Translations of the executive summary and language editing Strategic Agenda Thanks also to Magda Biesiada UNEP, Angeline Djampou UNEP, Johan Falk Exponential Roadmap Initiative, Owen Gaffney Stockholm Resilience Centre, Frank Geels University of Manchester, Dany Ghafari UNEP, Niklas Hagelberg UNEP, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro Universidae Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Yawo Konko UNEP, Kelly Levin Bezos Earth Fund, Paz Lopez-Rey UNEP, Omar Masera Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Sofía Méndez Mora UNEP, Jane Muriithi UNEP, Ekaterina Poleshchuk UNEP, Joyashree Roy Asian Institute of Technology, Sybrig Smit NewClimate Institute, Nandita Surendran UNEP, Ying Wang UNEP UNEP would like to thank the ClimateWorks Foundation, the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety BMU and its International Climate Initiative IKI, the Nordic Working Group for Climate and Air NKL of the Nordic Council of Ministers and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Authority SIDA for supporting the work of the Emissions Gap Report 2021.VIII Emissions Gap Report 2021 The Heat Is OnIX Emissions Gap Report 2021 The Heat Is On Contents Acknowledgements V Glossary XI Foreword XV Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Context of the Emissions Gap Report 2021 1 1.2 Focus, approach and structure of the report 1 Chapter 2 Trends in global emissions, new pledges