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I Emissions Gap Report 2019 Emissions Gap Report 2019© 2019 United Nations Environment Programme ISBN 978-92-807-3766-0 Job number DEW/2263/NA This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. United Nations Environment Programme would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the United Nations Environment Programme. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Director, Communication Division, United Nations Environment Programme, P. O. Box 30552, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. Disclaimers The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of United Nations Environment Programme concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. For general guidance on matters relating to the use of maps in publications please go to http//www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/english/htmain.htm Mention of a commercial company or product in this document does not imply endorsement by the United Nations Environment Programme or the authors. The use of information from this document for publicity or advertising is not permitted. Trademark names and symbols are used in an editorial fashion with no intention on infringement of trademark or copyright laws. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Environment Programme. We regret any errors or omissions that may have been unwittingly made. © Maps, photos, and illustrations as specified Suggested citation United Nations Environment Programme 2019. Emissions Gap Report 2019. UNEP, Nairobi. http//www.unenvironment.org/emissionsgap Supported byEmissions Gap Report 2019 November 2019Emissions Gap Report 2019 IVEmissions Gap Report 2019 V Acknowledgements The United Nations Environment Programme UNEP would like to thank the members of the steering committee, the lead and contributing authors, reviewers and the secretariat for their contribution to the preparation of this assessment report. Authors and reviewers have contributed to the report in their individual capacities. Their affiliations are only mentioned for identification purposes. Project steering committee Juliane Berger German Environment Agency, John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership, Navroz K. Dubash Centre for Policy Research, India, Jian Liu UNEP, Simon Maxwell Independent, Surabi Menon ClimateWorks Foundation, Bert Metz European Climate Foundation, Katia Simeonova UNFCCC, Priyadarshi Shukla Ahmedabad University, Oksana Tarasova World Meteorological Organization, Merlyn van Voore UNEP Chapter 1 Lead authors Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership Chapter 2 Lead authors Takeshi Kuramochi NewClimate Institute, Germany, Michel den Elzen PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Glen Peters CICERO, Norway Contributing authors Andrzej Ancyger Climate Analytics, Germany, Ankit Bhardwaj Centre for Policy Research, India, Gabriel Blanco National University of the Center of the Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, Taryn Fransen World Resources Institute, USA, Andreas Geiges Climate Analytics, Germany, Frederic Hans NewClimate Institute, Germany, Christopher Henderson World Resources Institute, USA, Niklas Höhne NewClimate Institute, Germany, Kejun Jiang Energy Research Institute, China, Maria Jose de Villafranca NewClimate Institute, Germany, Kimon Keramidas Joint Research Centre/European Commissions, Joojin Kim Solutions For Our Climate, Republic of Korea, Akihisa Kuriyama Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan, Leonardo Nascimento NewClimate Institute, Germany, Jos Olivier PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Deger Saygin SHURA, Turkey, Ranping Song World Resources Institute, China, Claire Stockwell Climate Analytics, Germany, Kentaro Tamura Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan, Paola Tanguy NewClimate Institute, Germany, Heleen van Soest PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Jorge Villarreal Padilla Iniciativa Climática de México, Ryan Wilson Climate Analytics, Germany, William Wills Centro Clima, Brazil, Paola Yanguas Parra Climate Analytics, Germany Chapter 3 Lead authors Joeri Rogelj Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, UK; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria, Michel den Elzen PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Contributing authors Daniel Huppmann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria, Gunnar Luderer Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany Chapter 4 Lead authors N i k l a s H ö h n e N e w C l i m a t e I n s t i t u t e , Germany, Taryn Fransen World Resources Institute, USA, Frederic Hans NewClimate Institute, Germany Contributing authors Ankit Bhardwaj Centre for Policy Research, India, Gabriel Blanco National University of the Center of the Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, Jesse Burton University of Cape Town, South Africa, Michel den Elzen PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Markus Hagemann NewClimate Institute, Germany, Christopher Henderson World Resources Institute, USA, Maria Daniela Keesler National University of the Center of the Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, Jiang Kejun Energy Research Institute, China, Akihisa Kuriyama Institute for Global Environmental Strategies IGES, Japan, Fu Sha National Centre for Climate Change Strategy, China, Ranping Song World Resources Institute, China, Kentaro Tamura Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan, Jorge Villarreal Iniciativa Climática de México, William Wills Centro Clima, Brazil Chapter 5 Lead authors Nebojsa Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Vienna University of Technology, Austria, Charlie Wilson Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK Contributing authors Bill Colglazier American Association for Advancement of Science, Owen Gaffney Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, Dirk Messner United Nations University, Narasimha Rao Yale School of Forestry Environmental Studies, USA, Caroline Zimm International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria Chapter 6 Lead Authors Y acob Mulugetta Department of Science, Technology, Engineering Public Policy, University College London, UK, Pablo E. Carvajal International Renewable Emissions Gap Report 2019 VI Energy Agency, Germany, James Haselip UNEP DTU Partnership, Thomas Spencer The Energy and Resources Institute, India Contributing Authors Edo Abraham Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands,, Simon Batchelor Gamos Ltd, UK, Brigitte Knopf Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Germany Chapter 7 Lead authors Edgar Hertwich Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Reid Lifset Yale School of Forestry Environmental Studies, USA, Stefan Pauliuk Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Germany, Niko Heeren Yale School of Forestry Environmental Studies, USA Contributing Authors Saleem Ali University of Delaware, USA, Peter Berrill Yale School of Forestry Environmental Studies USA, Tomer Fishman Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, Israel, Qingshi Tu Yale School of Forestry Environmental Studies USA, Paul Wolfram Yale School of Forestry Environmental Studies, USA Reviewers Lawrence Agbemabiese University of Delaware, Juan Carlos Altamirano World Resources Institute /New Climate Economy, Birgit Aru European Commission DG CLIMA, Mohammed Awojobi University of Delaware, Christoph Bertram Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Kathryn Jennifer Bowen Australian National University, Sylvain Cail Enerdata, Rachel Chi Kiu Mok World Bank, Filippo Civitelli UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Robert Ddamulira University of Delaware, Maya De Souza Resource Efficiency, DEFRA, Riyanti Djalante United Nations University – Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, Eric Fee German Environment Agency, Steve Forden UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, James Foster UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Sabine Fuß Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Harikumar Gadde World Bank, Manuela Galan UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Mengpin Ge World Resources Institute, Olivia Grippner European Commission DG CLIMA, Christoph Helbig Augsburg University, Fintan Hurley Institute of Occupational Medicine, Yasuko Kameyama National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, Rakhyun E. Kim Utrecht University, Peter King Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Almbana Kona European Commission DG CLIMA, Xavier Labandeira University of Vigo, Gerd Leipold Humboldt-Viadrina Governance Platform, Kelly Levin World Resources Institute, Shannon McDaniel Global Covenant of Mayors, Apurba Mitra World Resources Institute, Miles Perry European Commission DG CLIMA, John Quinn UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Chandra Shekhar Sinha World Bank, Leena Srivastava The Energy Resource Institute, Joel N. Swisher Western Washington University, Saara Tamminen SITRA, Oras Tynkkynen SITRA, Tom Van-Ierland European Commission DG CLIMA, Marion Vieweg Current Future, Kenichi Wada Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Jim Watson UK Energy Research Centre, Zhao Xiusheng Tsinghua University Chief scientific editors Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership Editorial support Olivier Bois von Kursk UNEP DTU Partnership Secretariat and project coordination Ivana Audia UNEP DTU Partnership, Olivier Bois von Kursk UNEP DTU Partnership, Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership, Pinya Sarasas UNEP, Maarten Kappelle UNEP Media and launch support Keishamaza Rukikaire, Nancy Groves, Michael Logan, Josie Raine, Sajni Shah, Moses Osani, Despina Kannaourou, David Cole, Pooja Munshi, Gregory Mwaura, Richard Waiguchu, Salome Mbeyu Chamanje, Florian Fussstetter, Joyce Sang, Viola Kup, Alejandro Laguna, Mark Grassi, Charlotte De kruijk UNEP, Mette Annelie Rasmussen, Lasse Hemmingsen UNEP DTU Partnership Design, layout and printing Joseph Sebastian Layout and cover, Caren Weeks Figures, Cuartalinea Printing, Despina Kannaourou UNEP Language editing and translation of the executive summary Strategic Agenda Thanks also to Climate Transparency, Oras Tynkkynen Sitra, Sandra Aparcana, Jacob Ipsen Hansen, Pia Riis Kofoed-Hansen, Susanne Konrad, Thomas Kragh Laursen, Daniel Puig, Fatima-Zahra Taibi, Xianli Zhu UNEP DTU Partnership, David Berman, Yunting Duan, Angeline Djampou, Lu Liu, Daria Vasilevskaia, Ying Wang and Edoardo Zandri UNEP Finally, the United Nations Environment Programme would like to thank the ClimateWorks Foundation, the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, the Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety BMU, the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment, and the Swedish International Development Authority SIDA for their support to the work of the Emissions Gap Report.Emissions Gap Report 2019 VII Acknowledgements Contents Glossary Foreword Executive Summary Chapter 1 Introduction Chapter 2 Global emissions trends and G20 status and outlook 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Current global emissions status and trends 2.3 Assessment of G20 Member progress towards Cancun pledges and NDC targets 2.4 Recent policy developments of G20 members 2.5 Preparation of long-term strategies and the way forward Chapter 3 The emissions gap 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Scenarios considered for the 2030 gap assessment 3.3 The 2030 emissions gap 3.4 Implications of the emissions gap Chapter 4 Bridging the Gap – Enhancing mitigation ambition and action at G20 level and globally 4.1 Introduction 4.2 The global opportunity to enhance ambition and action 4.3 Opportunities to enhance ambition in selected G20 members Chapter 5 Transformations towards zero-carbon development pathways 5.1 The great transformation towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions 5.2 Multiple co-benefits of closing the emissions gap for sustainable development 5.3 Entry points for achieving SDGs with climate co-benefits Chapter 6 Bridging the gap global transformation of the energy system 6.1 Key issues and options for transforming the global energy system 6.2 Options to decarbonize the energy sector 6.3 Beyond technical measures pursuing system-wide transformation Chapter 7 Bridging the gap enhancing material efficiency in residential buildings and cars 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Material-efficient housing 7.3 Material-efficient cars 7.4 Summary and link to policy References Contents V VII IX XIII XIV 1 3 3 3 7 12 20 21 21 21 23 25 28 28 29 37 39 39 39 40 46 46 46 54 56 56 57 60 62 63Emissions Gap Report 2019 VIIIEmissions Gap Report 2019 IX Glossary This glossary is compiled according to the Lead Authors of the Report drawing on glossaries and other resources available on the websites of the following organizations, networks and projects Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Non-State Actor Zone for Climate Action, United Nations Environment Programme, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and World Resources Institute. Baseline/reference The state against which change is measured. In the context of transformation pathways, the term ‘baseline scenarios’ refers to scenarios that are based on the assumption that no mitigation policies or measures will be implemented beyond those that are already in force and/or are legislated or planned to be adopted. Baseline scenarios are not intended to be predictions of the future, but rather counterfactual constructions that can serve to highlight the level of emissions that would occur without further policy effort. Typically, baseline scenarios are then compared to mitigation scenarios that are constructed to meet different goals for greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric concentrations or temperature change. The term ‘baseline scenario’ is used interchangeably with ‘reference scenario’ and ‘no policy scen