2019年 NRDC：油控情景下杭州市碳减排路径研究-solarbe文库

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2019 08 油控情景下杭州市碳减排路径研究 THE CARBON REDUCTION PATHWAYS FOR THE CITY OF HANGZHOU UNDER AN OIL CAP SCENARIO 油控研究项目“杭州低碳试点”课题组中国石油消费总量控制和政策研究项目油控研究项目中国是世界第二大石油消费国和第一大石油进口国。石油是中国社会经济发展的重要动力，但石油的生产和消费对生态环境造成了严重破坏；同时，石油对外依存度上升也威胁着中国的能源供应安全。为应对气候变化和减少环境污染，自然资源保护协会（NRDC）和能源基金会中国（EF China）作为协调单位，与国内外政府研究智库、科研院所和行业协会等十余家有影响力的单位合作，于 2018 年 1 月共同启动了“中国石油消费总量控制和政策研究” 项目（简称油控研究项目），促进石油资源安全、高效、绿色、低碳的可持续开发和利用，助力中国跨越“石油时代”，早日进入新能源时代，为保障能源安全、节约资源、保护环境和公众健康以及应对气候变化等多重目标做出贡献。自然资源保护协会（NRDC）是一家国际公益环保组织，拥有约 300 万会员及支持者。NRDC 致力于保护地球环境，即保护人类、动植物以及所有生灵所倚赖的生态系统。自 1970 年成立以来，我们的环境律师、科学家和专家一直在为公众享有清洁的水和空气以及健康的社区而努力。通过在科学、经济和政策方面的专业知识，我们在亚洲、欧洲、拉美和北美等地区与当地合作伙伴一起共同推进环境的综合治理与改善。请登录网站了解更多详情 www.nrdc.cn。本报告由浙江省经济信息中心和交通与发展政策研究所撰写。浙江省经济信息中心浙江省经济信息中心（浙江省应对气候变化和低碳发展合作中心）是长期致力于支撑浙江省发展改革委（省能源局）相关工作的绿色低碳和能源发展研究智库。主要研究领域包括应对气候变化和促进低碳发展战略规划、区域低碳转型、能源战略与规划、能源可持续发展，以及节能等方面工作。受地方政府委托，协助制定地方低碳发展战略规划、政策和方案等顶层设计，以及地方节能、煤炭减量消费等相关政策举措和工作方案等，承担浙江省气候变化研究交流平台（被列入浙江省促进大数据发展实施计划示范工程）的建设与管理。在服务地方政府科学制定节能减排战略、政策方面发挥了较强的支撑作用。系列报告中国石油真实成本研究石油开采利用的水资源外部成本研究中国石油消费总量控制的健康效应分析中国传统燃油汽车退出时间表研究交通与发展政策研究所交通与发展政策研究所（ITDP）成立于 1985 年，总部位于纽约，是一个国际性的非营利机构，全球 7 个国家设有 12 个分部，有员工约 120 人。ITDP 旨在全球尤其是发展中国家推广可持续以及平等的交通政策和项目。我们关注的政策和项目领域有快速公交系统（BRT），非机动车交通系统（NMT），公交引导发展（TOD）及交通需求管理（TDM）等，并致力于可持续交通系统的宣传培训及最佳实践的推广。3 油控情景下杭州市碳减排路径研究油控研究项目系列报告油控情景下杭州市碳减排路径研究 THE CARBON REDUCTION PATHWAYS FOR THE CITY OF HANGZHOU UNDER AN OIL CAP SCENARIO 报告主要撰写者汪燕黄炜郭江江张天佑刘闰辉李珊珊刘少坤王倩钰油控研究项目“杭州低碳试点”课题组 2019 年 08 月油控研究项目系列报告 4 目录执行摘要 6 Executive Summary 10 1. 杭州控油减排背景和意义 14 1.1 应对气候变化 1.2 大气污染防治 1.3 交通拥堵治理 1.4 杭州实施油控政策的优势 2. 杭州市碳排放情景分析 22 2.1 峰值预测模型选择 2.2 杭州市碳排放情景分析 2.3 杭州市交通碳排放达峰情景分析 3. 杭州市石油消费情景与控油目标 35 3.1 杭州市石油消费情景研究 3.2 情景分析总结5 油控情景下杭州市碳减排路径研究 4. 杭州市控油路径与政策建议 41 4.1 杭州市交通领域控油减排路径 4.2 非交通领域控油路径 4.3 控油政策建议参考文献 55 附录一LEAP-Hangzhou2050 模型基本框架及关键假设 56 附录二不同情景主要参数设置 58油控研究项目系列报告 6 执行摘要近 10 年来，杭州市经历了快速的经济发展和城市扩张，经济快速转型。但同时也面临交通拥堵、极端天气多发等众多问题。虽然杭州市目前在产业转型、能源结构优化等方面开展了成效卓著的工作，并且碳排放总量出现下降趋势，但随着城镇化进程的加快，人口的增长，未来仍面临交通领域石油消费造成的空气污染及环境问题更加严峻的形势。根据杭州市碳排放历史数据，当前杭州市碳排放总量已达到阶段性峰值。由于产业结构调整、电力清洁化和燃煤电厂关停等原因，近年来杭州市碳排放总量先增后降，碳强度持续下降，电力间接排放占比在 2016 年超过了煤炭，成为最大碳排放源。工业领域的减排是目前碳排放得到控制的主要原因。但是，随着工业节能边际成本的提高和经济的回暖，碳排放仍然存在反弹的迹象。近年来，交通运输对碳排放的反弹起到越来越重要的作用。根据杭州市目前石油消费结构，交通领域是汽、柴油消费最大部门。随着经济的发展和杭州主城区扩大，交通机动车数量居高不下，交通领域油耗存在继续上升空间，因此在杭州实施油控政策是有效抑制碳排放增长的手段。实施油控政策不仅有利于控制温室气体，减少极端天气出现的可能，同时也对大气污染防治、交通拥堵治理等有积极的意义。杭州市数字经济产业发展迅速，正是积极把握大数据、人工智能发展的重要契机，积极推动“城市大脑”和智慧城市的建设。对于杭州来说，实施油控是实现低碳发展的必经之路。本研究根据杭州市能源结构调整、产业结构调整、低碳建筑、低碳交通、低碳生活等低碳发展关键部门不同程度的进展确定低碳发展的三个情景，分别为基准情景、低碳情景、油控情景。在油控情景下，石油消费达峰年为 2023 年，石油消费量约 500 万吨（约 700 万吨标煤）。在交通领域，参考油控研究项目建议的全国传统燃油车退出时间表，本研究给出了杭州市传统燃油车的退出时间表7 油控情景下杭州市碳减排路径研究研究提出的杭州市传统燃油车退出时间表类型退出时间油控研究项目提出的全国燃油车退出时间公交车 2016 2030 普通客车 2035 2045 货运车辆 2040 2050 出租车（网约车） 2020 2030 私家车 2030 2040 本研究利用 LEAP 模型计算在基准情景、低碳情景和油控情景下的杭州市碳排放水平，得出未来杭州市碳排放水平及不同部门的排放情况及能源消费情况，主要结论包括 1. 杭州市碳排放已达到阶段性峰值在基准情景下，2020-2025 年，考虑到人口大量涌入、开展重大活动、经济较快发展等因素，碳排放水平保持低速增长的趋势，存在反弹的趋势。2025 年之后，随着产业结构的优化和能源利用效率的提高，碳排放水平持续下降。 2. 交通和建筑是未来减排重点领域未来主要的减排来自第二产业的贡献，主要在于交通和建筑部门。随着城市化进程的加快和经济的发展，交通排放越来越起到更重要的作用，控制交通领域油品消费是落实油控措施的关键。 3. 油控情景下石油消费量得到有效控制在油控情景下，到 2050 年，能源消费结构中电力消费占比达到 68，煤炭消费（不含电力生产）下降到 2 以下，石油的消费进一步降低，石油消费占终端用能消费预计从 2017 年的 19.4 下降至 4，消费量下降 81.8。 4. 空气质量得到根本性改善从杭州空气污染物成分看，PM 2.5 是主要污染物，杭州市域范围内 PM 2.5 主要受 NOx、SO 2 影响，而氮氧化物和二氧化硫排放源主要为机动车和燃煤排放（主要为火电、油控研究项目系列报告 8 水泥行业）。在油控情景下，石油消费量 2030 年较 2015 年下降约 38，煤炭消费量较 2015 年下降约 62，考虑到排放终端的处理技术的提高、油品的清洁化趋势，到 2030 年，NO x 和 SO 2 减排 40 的目标可以实现，空气质量将得到根本性改善。 5. 碳排放与经济增长逐渐脱钩从杭州市碳排放脱钩指数变化图可以看出，油控情景下，杭州市 2020 年之后便进入强脱钩阶段，经济增长的同时，排放量继续下降。杭州市交通碳排放达峰分析的结果表明，杭州市交通部门碳排放未来一段时间会继续增长，在基准情景下，预计 2028 年达到峰值，低碳和油控情景下，预计 2023 年达到峰值。对分领域能源消费情况，到 2050 年，在油控情景下，随着工业用油的进一步降低和交通的电气化，油品的消费进一步降低。在交通领域，货运和非营运交通（主要为私家车）是排放的重点部门。本报告深入探索具有杭州市特色的油控措施及政策的推进落实，通过制定减少机动车出行，引导居民向绿色交通转移，同时优化交通组织效率及提升能源利用率等措施，即“减少、转移、优化、提升”4 项措施，严格控制燃油消耗，实现油控情景目标值。 1.“减少”策略 “减少”策略是通过优化城市空间布局，整合土地利用与交通的一体化开发，形成职住平衡的区域发展模式，减少机动车出行需求。 2.“转移”策略 “转移”策略是通过发展绿色交通出行，将私人小汽车出行需求引导至公共交通、非机动车交通及共享交通等能源利用率高的交通方式上。 3.“优化”策略 “优化”策略是通过现代化的通讯、网络及其他技术手段优化交通出行效率，减少交通领域燃油的消耗。 4.“提升”策略 “提升”策略是通过提高能源利用效率并推广替代能源的使用，降低石油消耗。9 油控情景下杭州市碳减排路径研究根据油控路径分析，杭州市可制定分期实施方案，优先实施近期能产生最强控油效果的措施，产生立竿见影的降低燃油消耗的效果。交通是一个复杂的系统工程，在确保交通参与者高效有序出行的前提下降低油耗，则需要多部门参与、多措施综合运用，实现 2023 年燃油消耗达峰目标。油控研究项目系列报告 10 Executive Summary Within the past ten years, Hangzhou has experienced rapid economic development and urban expansion, while also facing severe traffic congestion and frequent extreme weather incidents, among a host of other problems. The city is currently undergoing a transition in its industrial sectors and optimizing its energy structure, both developments that have achieved notable successes, and sees a trend of decreasing total carbon emissions. However, along with accelerating urbanization and an increasing population, emissions from oil consumption in the transportation sector will further exacerbate problems of air pollution and environmental degradation for the foreseeable future. According to historical data on Hangzhou’s emissions, current carbon emissions from the city have already reached periodic peak. As a result of transformations in industry, clean power, and the closure of coal-fired power plants, carbon emissions increased and then subsequently decreased in recent years, carbon intensity continues to decrease, and the proportion of indirect emissions from electricity surpassed coal in 2016, becoming the largest source of carbon emissions. Emissions reductions from industrial sectors are currently the primary cause of decreasing carbon emissions. However, with increases in the marginal cost of energy-saving measures and an economic uptick, there are signs of a rebound in carbon emissions. In recent years, transportation has played an increasingly significant role in rebounding carbon emissions. Considering Hangzhou’s current oil consumption structure, transportation accounts for the most gasoline and diesel fuel usage. As the city’s economy has developed and its main urban area expanded, the number of vehicles has remained high and the potential for continued oil consumption growth remains, leading Hangzhou to implement policies to limit an increase in carbon emissions. Measures to cap oil consumption not only contribute to reducing greenhouse gases and extreme weather occurrences, but also have a positive impact on managing pollution and traffic congestion. Hangzhou has seen major advancements in its digital economy and firmly grasps the opportunities that big data and artificial intelligence offer to establish an “urban brain” and smart city. Successful implementation of an oil cap project is a necessary path for Hangzhou to realize low-carbon development. 11 油控情景下杭州市碳减排路径研究 This research sets three scenarios reference, low-carbon, and oil cap that consider different levels of low-carbon development in energy and industrial transitions, building, transportation, and daily living, among other areas. Under the oil cap scenario, oil consumption will peak in 2023 at approximately 5 million tons around 7 million tons of standard coal equivalent. The following timetable for the phase-out of traditional fuel vehicles in Hangzhou was produced according to the oil cap project’s national phase-out timetable and proposal to ban traditional fuel vehicle sales. Proposed Hangzhou Traditional Fuel Vehicle Phase-Out Timetable Type Hangzhou traditional fuel vehicle phase-out timetable National traditional fuel vehicle phase-out timetable proposed by the China Oil Cap Project Bus 2016 2030 Coach 2035 2045 Freight vehicle 2040 2050 Taxi 2020 2030 Private car 2030 2040 This research utilizes the LEAP model to calculate the future carbon emissions levels in Hangzhou and the carbon emissions and energy use from various sectors for the reference, low-carbon, and oil cap scenarios. The major conclusions are 1. Hangzhou has reached periodic carbon emissions peak Under the reference scenario, considering a significant population influx, large-scale activities, and relatively fast economic development, carbon emissions will continue to slowly increase from 2020 to 2025 as part of the rebounding trend. After 2025, as energy efficiency and the industrial structure improve, carbon emissions will decrease. 2. Transportation and buildings are key sectors for future emissions reductions Contributions to emissions reductions will primarily come from secondary industries, as the greatest areas for growth are in the transportation and building sectors. Along 油控研究项目系列报告 12 with economic development and the acceleration of urbanization, transportation sector emissions will become increasingly significant, making measures to control oil consumption in this sector crucial. 3. Oil consumption to face effective controls under oil cap scenario Under the oil cap scenario, electricity will account for 68 of the energy consumption structure, and coal consumption not including power generation will decrease to under 2 by 2050. The consumption of oil will decrease further. By 2050, the share of oil in final energy consumption will fall to 4, as compared to 19.4 in 2017, with the amount consumed dropping 81.8. 4. Air quality to see fundamental improvements PM 2.5 is the major component of Hangzhou’s air pollution. Of the PM 2.5 pollution in the region, NOx and SO 2 emissions play a significant role and primarily result from traditional fuel vehicles and burning coal, as required for thermal power and the cement industry. The oil cap scenario predicts oil consumption in 2030 will decrease approximately 38 relative to 2015, while coal consumption will drop 62. Considering advances in emissions treatment technologies and the trend towards cleaner oil products, it is possible to reach the target of decreasing NOx and SO 2 emissions 40 by 2030. 5. Carbon emissions will gradually decouple from economic growth The Hangzhou carbon emissions decoupling index illustrates that, under the oil cap scenario, the city will enter a phase of strong decoupling after 2020, as emissions decrease and the economy continues to grow. The analysis of Hangzhou’s peak carbon emissions from transportation indicates that carbon emissions will continue to increase for a certain period of time under each of the scenarios. The reference scenario predicts a peak in 2028, while the low-carbon and oil cap scenarios both set the date for 2025. Under the oil cap scenario, as the industrial use of oil decreases and transportation undergoes electrification, oil consumption will decrease significantly by 2050. In the transportation sector, freight and non-commercial vehicles primarily passenger cars will be key emissions areas. This report thoroughly investigates oil cap measures and policies suited to the specific 13 油控情景下杭州市碳减排路径研究 conditions of Hangzhou. These will establish limits on motor vehicle travel, guide residents towards green transportation usage, optimize the effectiveness of transport organizations, and improve energy efficiency. Divided into strategies to “reduce, shift, optimize, and upgrade,” these four methods aim to strictly control oil consumption and realize the targets set forth in the oil cap scenario. 1. “Reduction” Strategy This strategy intends to optimize the city layout through integrating both land-use and transportation planning, establish a balanced commercial-residential development model for the region, and reduce the demand for motorized transport. 2. “Shift” Strategy These measures plan to develop green transportation and shift travel from private passenger vehicles to energy-efficient public, non-motorized, and shared transport methods. 3. “Optimization” Strategy The “optimization” strategy will utilize modern communication channels, the internet, and other technological measures to optimize travel efficiency and reduce fuel consumption. 4. “Upgrade” Strategy This strategy intends to reduce oil consumption through improving energy efficiency and expanding alternative energy usage. According to the oil cap pathway analysis, a phased implementation plan for Hangzhou should prioritize strong measures that will produce immediate reductions in fuel consumption. Transportation constitutes a complicated system that must ensure efficient and orderly travel. This is the premise for multi-sector participation and support for comprehensive measures that will achieve the goal of peak oil consumption in 2023. 1 杭州控油减排背景和意义15 油控情景下杭州市碳减排路径研究 1.1 应对气候变化近 10 年来，杭州市经历了快速的经济发展和城市扩张，经济快速转型。但同时也面临交通拥堵、极端天气多发等众多问题。杭州市目前在应对气候变化领域开展了成效卓著的工作，并且碳排放总量出现下降趋势，但随着城镇化进程的加快，人口的增长，未来会面临由此导致的空气污染等严峻问题。 1. 杭州市低碳发展经验近年来，在全球变暖的大背景下，台风、强降水等极端天气事件发生的频率不断增加，给人类的生存带来极大的挑战。杭州市不断深化气候低碳发展理念，把低碳发展作为经济社会发展的重大战略和生态文明建设的的重要途径，采取积极措施，积极应对气候变化。早在2004 年，杭州市就印发了优先发展城市公交，缓解市民 “出行难” 问题的实施意见，坚持“公交优先”发展战略，在构建完善公交系统、增强公交运力、改善公交服务质量等方面做了大量工作，助力低碳交通发展；2010 年，杭州被国家发改委确定为全国首批低碳试点城市，提出打造低碳经济、低碳交通、低碳建筑、低碳生活、低碳环境、低碳社会“六位一体”的低碳示范城市；2017 年，杭州市人民政府印发杭州市“十三五” 控制温室气体排放实施方案，进一步明确低碳发展总体目标、战略任务，切实深化低碳建设。 2. 碳排放总量先升后降，碳强度持续下降 2010-2016 年杭州市能源活动二氧化碳核算排放总量呈现“倒 U 型”变化趋势。 2010-2014 年 CO 2 核算排放量总体增长，增速震荡收窄，并于 2014 年达到最高点，随后受电力排放因子调整、杭钢半山基地关停，以及主城区电厂燃煤机组淘汰等因素的影响，从 2015 年开始全市核算排放量出现负增长。