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Security of Clean Energy Transitions Security of Clean Energy Transitions Security of Clean Energy Transitions Abstract PAGE | 3 I E A . A l l r i ght s r es er v e d. Abstract This report examines the evolving nature of energy security in the context of clean energy transitions in general and on the pathway to net-zero emissions in particular. It highlights emerging energy security concerns and provides recommendations to foster international collaboration, notably within the Group of Twenty G20. In the context of Italy’s G20 presidency, its Ministry of Economic Development requested the International Energy Agency IEA to undertake this Security of Clean Energy Transitions report. It aims to support discussions among the G20 countries and to provide insights and direction for the review and update of the G20 energy collaboration principles, which were endorsed at the G20 Brisbane Leaders’ Summit in 2014. Security of Clean Energy Transitions Foreword PAGE | 4 I E A . A ll r ig ht s r es er v e d. Foreword The energy sector holds the key to tackle the climate crisis – a great challenge of our times – and this is why an increasing number of G20 governments have pledged to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century or soon after. As our Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector shows, energy security becomes even more important on the way to net zero. The defining elements of energy security evolve as reliance on renewable electricity, on critical minerals and digitalisation of grids grows and the roles of oil and gas change. Since the IEA’s creation in 1974, our core mission has been to promote secure, affordable and sustainable energy supplies to foster economic growth. While entering a new energy era, the IEA is ideally placed to continue to contribute. A central plank for energy security in a net zero world are investments in diversity, our best bet against security risks. Therefore, we need all technologies, including energy efficiency, renewables, low-carbon dispatchable generation, energy storage, smart grids and digital solutions, electricity networks and low-carbon fuels. Governments and industry must boost resilience against new and more frequent threats. These include cyberattacks and extreme weather events, such as storms, floods, cold spells, heat waves and droughts. The energy system is increasingly vulnerable to disruptions in the supply of electricity, critical minerals and renewables. We are grateful to the government of Italy for making a new paradigm for energy security a key priority of its G20 presidency and their invitation to the International Energy Agency to prepare this timely report. From Brisbane in 2014 to Rome in 2021, G20 collaboration on energy security has advanced with the focus placed on energy transitions, notably with the G20 troika of Japan, Saudi Arabia and Italy. I very much hope our report and practical guidance across seven principles will support effective international collaboration and inform decisions among G20 countries. Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director International Energy Agency Security of Clean Energy Transitions Acknowledgements PAGE | 5 I E A . A ll r ig ht s r es er v e d. Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the team in the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security EMS of the International Energy Agency IEA. Keisuke Sadamori, Director of the EMS, provided strategic direction. The publication could not have been produced without the financial assistance of the Italian Ministry of Economic Development. Aad van Bohemen, Head of the IEA Energy Policy and Security Division, provided expert guidance and advice. The report was co-ordinated by Sylvia Beyer. The main contributors in alphabetical order were Ali Al-Saffar, Toril Bosoni, Jason Elliott, Carlos Fernandez Alvarez, Alyssa Fischer, Paolo Frankl, Ilkka Hannula, Milosz Karpinski, Ghislaine Kieffer, Kevin Lane, Kieran McNamara, Gergely Molnar, Kristine Petrosyan, Vida Rozite, Gabriel Saive and Peerapat Vithayasrichareon. Valuable strategic advice and contributions were provided by IEA colleagues Joel Couse, Peter Fraser, Tim Gould, Alejandro Hernandez, Christophe McGlade, Brian Motherway, Peter Zeniewski and Brent Wanner. Thanks to the IEA Communications and Digital Office CDO for help in producing the publication, particularly to Jad Mouawad, Head of CDO, Astrid Dumond, Tanya Dyhin and Therese Walsh. Thanks to the editor, Debra Justus, for her outstanding work. Security of Clean Energy Transitions Table of contents PAGE | 6 I E A . A ll r ig ht s r es er v e d. Table of Contents Executive summary 7 1. Prioritise energy efficiency 13 2. Secure integration of wind and solar in power systems . 15 3. Diversify the portfolio of low-carbon generation technologies 17 4. Ensure the cost-effective use of existing energy infrastructure 21 5. Modernise oil security systems . 24 6. Prepare for new and emerging risks to energy security . 27 Climate change resilience . 27 Digital resilience 28 Critical minerals . 29 7. Promote people-centred inclusive transitions . 31 Inclusiveness for successful transitions 31 Energy access and energy poverty reduction . 33 Producer economies . 33 Conclusions Seven principles for security of clean energy transitions. 35 Security of Clean Energy Transitions Executive summary PAGE | 7 I E A . A ll r ig ht s r es er v e d. Executive summary The global energy sector is going through a fundamental transformation as countries undertake clean energy transitions at various depths and speeds. The concept of energy security is becoming broader and more dynamic today than it has been in the past. Ensuring uninterrupted and reliable fuel supplies and critical energy-related commodities at affordable prices remains a fundamental policy goal. Traditional energy security risks have not dissipated, but as clean energy transitions progress new considerations arise. On the way to net zero, energy security will only rise in importance. Countries that represent 70 of global emissions of carbon dioxide CO 2 have pledged to reach net- zero emissions by mid-century or soon after. In 2021, the IEA Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector hereafter referred to as the Net Zero Roadmap in this report outlined how the global energy system can shift towards net zero. Energy security concerns include probabilities of interruptions and induced price volatility, with oil and gas supplies being concentrated in a small number of low-cost producers with low-carbon footprints, a shift from the need to secure availability of fuels to critical minerals and a more central role of electricity security amid rising electrification. Energy efficiency is the “first fuel” to achieve clean energy transitions in a secure manner. Efforts to strengthen and expand efficient technologies and practices need to be scaled up significantly, as energy savings and related behavioural changes have so far been much slower than needed. Clean energy transitions in the period to 2030 will largely rely on variable renewables for electricity generation. Dramatic cost reductions in wind and solar photovoltaic PV power generation over the last decade are underpinning their record levels of expansion. Solar PV capacity increased by 135 gigawatts GW and wind by 114 GW in 2020, even as the Covid-19 pandemic dampened global electricity demand. The Net Zero Roadmap relies on the rapid scale up of solar and wind in this decade to four-times the levels seen in 2020. Renewable deployment brings major benefits for energy security, but needs a shift in policy and market design. Security of Clean Energy Transitions Executive summary PAGE | 8 I E A . A ll r ig ht s r es er v e d. Energy efficiency, solar and wind are priorities to achieve near-term emissions reductions IEA. All rights reserved. Note MJ megajoules; GDP gross domestic product in purchasing power parity terms; GW gigawatts; PV photovoltaics. Source IEA 2021, Net Zero in 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. Electricity is becoming a main driver of the pathway to clean energy transitions and security of its supply is essential. The IEA report Power Systems in Transition 2020 provides advice on how governments can integrate higher shares of variable renewables into the power system, as traditional dispatchable generation declines; boost resilience against new and rising threats, such as extreme weather events and cyberattacks. G20 governments need to boost flexibility of power systems. First, this includes increased investment in dispatchable generation, including hydropower, nuclear and natural gas depending on national circumstances. Also to maximise the use of low- carbon generation sources to cut emissions and boost security. Second, it calls for cost- effective use of existing energy infrastructure by using low-carbon fuels, such as ammonia, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic fuels. Third, it requires mechanisms to reward flexibility in electricity systems, and to expand energy storage, demand response and digital solutions as well as regional integration of electricity markets. In the period to 2030, existing resources will provide the bulk of flexibility and capacity contributions. The use of dispatchable generation sources that support clean energy transitions is critical. Security of Clean Energy Transitions Executive summary PAGE | 9 I E A . A ll r ig ht s r es er v e d. Governments need to promote investment in diversity - our best bet against security risks. In the period beyond 2030, diverse low-carbon technologies that currently are at the demonstration or prototype phase need to be developed and deployed, in particular dispatchable generation technologies that can add capacity and flexibility to power systems. Examples include various forms of storage and demand- side response technologies, which are projected to provide the bulk of electricity flexibility options by 2050. Carbon capture, utilisation and storage CCUS and advanced nuclear technologies such as small modular reactors are also important options for the clean energy transition. All effective technologies must be mobilised to achieve climate goals in a cost optimal and secure way. This requires that governments strategically direct and quickly increase spending on research and development. Developing, demonstrating and deploying clean energy technologies will boost the availability of innovative technologies as a hedge against technological uncertainty – this will enhance energy security. Addressing emissions from existing energy-related infrastructure while making best use of their system value are critical elements of a secure clean energy pathway. All of today’s power and industrial plants, buildings and vehicles – if they continue to rely on unabated combustion of fossil fuels – will generate a certain level of future emissions. Detailed analysis in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2020 shows that if today’s energy infrastructure continues to operate as it has in the past, it would lock in a temperature rise of 1.65°C. Fossil fuels dominate the energy supply of many G20 countries, as illustrated in the figure. Transitioning the existing energy infrastructure presents significant challenges. Modifications to existing fossil fuel-related infrastructure offer opportunities for secure and affordable energy transitions. Coal- and gas-fired power plants can be retrofitted to burn fuels such as ammonia and hydrogen that contribute to security of electricity supply. In the transition, hydrogen can be blended into natural gas for distribution and natural gas pipelines can be repurposed to carry hydrogen or biomethane. Policy makers need a comprehensive assessment of the inventory and value of existing assets from which to craft a framework that provides incentives for owners and operators to adequately address emissions, environmental impacts and security aspects. This includes to repurpose existing infrastructure assets and to mitigate adverse impacts on communities. Security of Clean Energy Transitions Executive summary PAGE | 10 I E A . A ll r ig ht s r es er v e d. Total energy supply by source, G20 countries, 2019 Notes IEA30 represents the member countries of the IEA and is shown for reference. EU27 represents the member states of the European Union and is a member of the G20. Source IEA 2021, World Energy Balances. Oil and gas markets may experience heightened market volatility and concentration. This can happen if reductions in oil and gas demand are outpaced by decreases in supply due to lack of investment in existing fields, or if available supply is concentrated in fewer countries. Both the oil supply chain and the refinery sector will need to adapt to shifts in product markets, including more biofuels, and still ensure adequate oil product supplies. The IEA’s oil emergency response system will continue to be a critical tool for ensuring oil supply security. However, it will need to be modernised as global oil demand is transitioning. Global energy systems face increasing risks including changing climate patterns, cyber threats and the availability of critical minerals. Security of Clean Energy Transitions Executive summary PAGE | 11 I E A . A ll r ig ht s r es er v e d. Governments need to address the rising significance of critical minerals for clean energy technologies. In 2021, IEA presented analysis on the Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions with six key recommendations to strengthen the resilience of global supply chains, promote technological advances, scale up recycling, maintain high environmental and social standards, and strengthen international collaboration between producers and consumers, including under the G20. Digitalisation provides opportunities to enhance energy security but comes with new risks. Digitalisation supports improved energy planning, real-time monitoring, facilitating the use of distributed energy resources to provide services to power systems and response to critical situations. Governments need to ensure that emergency preparedness and response capabilities continue to be robust in a more digitalised and electrified system. There is an urgent need for action by policy makers, utilities and stakeholders to enhance their energy systems’ resilience to climate change. The electricity and energy system face increasing adverse impacts of climate change, resulting in rising global temperatures, erratic patterns of precipitation, sea level rise and more frequent or intense extreme weather events. More resilient electricity systems reduce damage and loss from climate impacts. Weather proofing of the energy infrastructure is part of a strategy to increase the robustness, resourcefulness and recovery of the system. Clean energy transitions cannot succeed without putting people at the core. Governments should be prepared to address the impact of the energy transition on peop