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CHINA 张家口市碳排放总量控制方法学及政策建议 2020 中国报告 panda.org © 2020 Paper 100 recycled © 1986 Panda symbol WWF-World Wide Fund For NatureFormerly World Widlife Fund®“WWF” is a WWF Registered Trademark.WWF,Avenue du Mont-Bland,1196 Gland,Switzerland Tel.41 22 364 9111 Fax 41 22 364 0332. For contact details and further informantion,please visit our international website at www.panda.org WWF的使命是遏止地球自然环境的恶化，创造人类与自然和谐相处的美好未来。本报告由IBR在 WWF的支持下完成张家口市碳排放总量控制方法学及政策建议 II | 张家口市碳排放总量控制方法学及政策建议世界自然基金会（ WWF）是在全球享有盛誉的、最大的非政府环境保护组织。 WWF 于 1961 年成立，总部位于瑞士格朗。 WWF 在全世界超过 100 个国家有办公室、拥有 6000 多名全职员工，以及超过 500 万名志愿者。作为第一个受中国政府邀请来华开展保护工作的国际非政府组织， WWF 在中国的工作始于 1980 年的大熊猫及其栖息地保护。 WWF 的使命是遏止地球自然环境的恶化，创造人类与自然和谐相处的美好未来。为此 WWF 致力于保护世界的生物多样性；确保可再生自然资源的可持续利用；推动降低污染和减少浪费的消费行动。深圳市建筑科学研究院股份有限公司（ IBR）是国家级高新技术企业，作为中国建筑节能、绿色建筑和生态低碳城市领域技术的先行者之一，十多年来积极推动绿色低碳理念和技术的普及，并积极承担社会责任，率先开展规模化的绿色建筑和绿色低碳生态城市实践。 IBR 秉承“平视城市，共享生命精彩”的愿景，多年来专注于探索中国特色新型城镇化之路，构建了绿色建筑、社区、城区、城市 4 个层面的“生态诊断、平衡规划、动态实施、智慧运营、实时评估”五位一体的生态城市技术服务体系，在国内绿色城市发展技术服务领域处于领先地位。版权信息版权所有世界自然基金会（瑞士）北京代表处主编深圳市建筑科学研究院股份有限公司（ IBR），世界自然基金会（瑞士）北京代表处撰写李芬、赖玉珮、彭锐、高楠楠、杨雷、 Daniel Jacques Corne Va、林盈晖、黄智怡、陆颖王伟康、李瑛、单诗尧、刘倩等文本和图片世界自然基金会保留所有版权致谢庄贵阳中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心冯相昭环境保护部环境与经济政策研究中心田永英住房和城乡建设部科技与产业化发展中心田智宇国家发改委能源研究所杨秀国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心付琳国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心陈莎北京工业大学环境与能源工程学院王克中国人民大学环境学院单峰中国城市科学研究会数字城市工程研究中心王亚男城市发展研究编辑部关于世界自然基金会（WWF）关于深圳市建筑科学研究院股份有限公司（IBR）官方微信SZ_IBR 网站szibr.com 摘要随着城市不断发展，能源消费日益增长，由能源消费带来的环境和气候影响日趋严重。低碳发展作为一种低能耗、低污染、低排放的可持续发展模式，是缓解能源和环境问题的重要途径。深入开展低碳发展建设研究，明确实现碳排放峰值路线图，并在此基础上探索零碳排放目标，已成为当下中国应对气候变化和生态文明建设的重要任务。国务院印发的“十三五”控制温室气体排放工作方案明确提出到 2020 年，单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比 2015 年下降 18；支持优化开发区域在 2020 年前实现碳排放率先达峰；鼓励其他区域提出峰值目标，明确达峰路线图；要求在部分发达省市研究探索开展碳排放总量控制，鼓励“中国达峰先锋城市联盟”城市和其他具备条件的城市加大减排力度，力争提前完成达峰目标。张家口市位于河北省西北部和我国“三北”地区交汇处，既是京津冀地区重要的生态涵养区和国家规划的新能源基地之一，也是“一带一路”中蒙俄经济走廊重要节点城市。随着京津冀协同发展战略的全面实施、北京携手张家口申办冬奥会的成功和可再生能源示范区规划的获批，张家口迎来了千载难逢的发展机遇，同时也面临着严峻的低碳转型工作所带来的压力和挑战。张家口市提出了“到2020 年实现可再生能源消费量占终端能源消费量的比重达到30”的目标；到2020年40 的工业企业实现零碳排放，并在张家口市崇礼县建设国际领先的“低碳奥运专区”，打造低碳奥运场馆，实现体育场馆的供热及用电100 采用可再生能源；“十三五”期间，张家口碳排放强度比 2015 年下降 22。面对城市发展、申办冬奥会和碳减排的多目标要求，如何有效协调各目标，实现低碳发展，是张家口市目前面临的主要问题。探索张家口市碳排放总量控制方法和政策研究，明确张家口市未来中长期的转型发展路径，将有力推动其碳减排目标、可再生能源示范区以及冬奥建设等目标的实现。本研究在世界自然基金会的支持下，由深圳建筑科学研究院股份有限公司承担本课题研究。现阶段，张家口市的城市特征为高耗能高排放产业比重大，建筑部门和交通部门能耗占比较低。研究团队采用自上而下和自下而上的预测模型对张家口市 2016-2030 年能源消费总量和碳排放进行预测，共分为三个情景，分别为参考、低碳和示范区情景，研究发现在三个情景下，张家口市能源消费总量均将呈现不断上升的趋势，但由于张家口市非化石能源消费比重的不断增加，其碳排放总量虽在参考情景下不断增加，但在低碳和示范区情景下，其碳排放总量将分别于 2025 年和 2020 年左右达到峰值。在总量预测基础上，对张家口市碳排放进行部门分解，自下而上的建立了张家口市分部门碳排放预测方法，对工业、交通和建筑三部门2030 年前碳排放量进行了情景预测。通过预测发现，三部门在参考情景下，其碳排放均将呈现快速增长的趋势。工业部门在低碳情景和示范区情景下将分别于 2020 年和 2016 年达到峰值，为实现工业部门尽快达峰，应严格控制火电和钢铁行业碳排放。交通部门由于受冬奥会影响较大，参考情景下其排放将在2022 年之后呈现略微下降之后快速上升。但低碳情景和示范区情景下，交通部门碳排放将分别在 2022 年和 2020 年达到峰值，若实现交通部门碳排放尽快达峰，减排贡献主要在公路货运和私家车。建筑部门由于数据中心的建立和发展，将大量消耗电力，从而导致其在三情景下能耗均快速增长，且数据中心的建立将逐渐成为建筑部门的主要能耗组成，但随着张家口市非化石能源电力替代程度增加，数据中心能耗虽大但碳排放量快速下降，建筑部门碳排放在示范区情景下将在 2023 年左右达到峰值。根据河北省张家口市可再生能源示范区发展规划等要求，在推动能源消费、能源供给、能源技术和能源体制四个方面的“革命”和一个国际合作的要求下，结合张家口市的特征情况，提供工作方案建议张家口市应充分发摘要 IV | 张家口市碳排放总量控制方法学及政策建议挥京津冀协同发展战略优势，与北京市在自然资源、农业生产、电力工业以及投资资金等方面，形成“供给 - 需求”的互补关系。应当以京张联动为契机，进一步加大力度发展张家口的旅游休闲业，提升张家口的城市影响力。应当抓住 2022 年冬奥会的契机，大力发展冰雪产业，实现产业链的优化升级。坚持“冰雪 ”的发展模式，形成“冰雪文化”的特色产业发展思路。提高体育休闲旅游服务业的比重，使体育休闲服务业成为张家口体育产业发展的“龙头”，把张家口打造成为冬季滑雪度假圣地。同时通过发展绿色金融产品，助推张家口“生态涵养功能区”“水源涵养功能区”的产业布局。碳排放总量控制是实现碳达峰的重要约束手段，是落实碳排放控制目标的主要方法。在详细了解张家口市碳排放情况的基础上，建立城市碳排放总量控制方法学研究，提出城市碳排放总量控制分解优化方案，推进城市的低碳发展进程，有助于落实全国碳排放总量控制的要求，并促成碳排放达峰目标的尽快实现。课题在执行过程中也得到了生态环境部环境与经济政策研究中心、住房和城乡建设部科技与产业化发展中心、国家发改委能源所、国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心政策法规处、中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心、中国人民大学环境学院、中国城市科学研究会的专家团队的支持和指导，在此表示感谢 Abstract ABSTRACT With the continuous development of cities, energy consumption is increasing rapidly, the environmental and climate impacts caused by which are becoming more and more serious. Low-carbon development, as a sustainable development pattern with low energy consumption, low pollution and low emissions, is an important way to alleviate energy and environmental problems. Carrying out in-depth research on low-carbon development and construction, clearly defining the road map for carbon emission peak, and exploring zero-carbon emissions targets on this basis have become an important task for China to deal with climate change and to promote ecological civilization. “Work Plan for Controlling Greenhouse Gas Emissions during the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan“ issued by the State Council clearly stated that by 2020, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will fall by 18 compared with 2015; support for optimized development regions to take the lead in achieving the carbon emission peak by 2020; encourage other regions to propose carbon emission peak targets and clarify the road map to achieve the carbon emission peak; require research and exploration on total carbon emission control in some developed provinces and cities, and encourage the cities which are the member of “The Union of Chinese Model Cities for Reaching Carbon Emission Peak“ and other qualified cities to increase emissions reductions intensity, striving to achieve the goal of reaching the carbon emission peak in advance. Zhangjiakou City is located at the northwestern Hebei Province and the intersection of China’s “Three North” regions. The city is an important ecological conservation area and one of the nationally planned new energy bases, which is also an important node city of the “Belt and Road” China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor. With the comprehensive implementation of the Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy, the success of Beijing and Zhangjiakou’s bid to host the Winter Olympics and the approval of the renewable energy demonstration area plan, Zhangjiakou has ushered in a rare development opportunity, meanwhile facing a severe pressure and challenges to transform to a low carbon city. Therefore, Zhangjiakou City has put forward the goal of achieving 30 of renewable energy consumption as a proportion of final energy consumption and 40 of industrial enterprises should achieve zero carbon emissions by 2020, building an international low-carbon Olympic venues and a leading low carbon in Chongli County to achieve 100 use of renewable energy for heating and electricity in stadiums. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, carbon emission intensity of the city is supposed to decrease by 22 compared with 2015. Based on the multi-goal requirements of urban development, bidding for the Winter Olympics and carbon emission reduction, how to effectively coordinate the various goals and achieve low-carbon development is the main problem currently faced by Zhangjiakou City. Exploring the control methods and policies for total carbon emission and clarifying the medium and long-term transformation and development path in Zhangjiakou will strongly promote the realization of its goals including the carbon emission reduction, renewable energy demonstration zone construction and to host the Winter Olympics. With the support of WWF, this research was undertaken by the Shenzhen Institute of Building Research Co., Ltd. IBR. At this stage, Zhangjiakou City is characterized by a high proportion of energy-intensive and high-emission industries, with relatively low energy consumption in the construction and transportation sectors. The research team used top-down and bottom-up prediction models to predict the total energy consumption and carbon emissions of Zhangjiakou City from 2016 to 2030. It is divided into three scenarios, including the reference scenario, low-carbon scenario and demonstration area scenario. The study found that under three scenarios, the total energy consumption of Zhangjiakou City will show a rising trend. However, due to the increasing proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in Zhangjiakou City, although its total carbon emissions continue to increase under the reference scenario, while their total carbon emissions will reach the peak around 2025 and 2020 respectively under the low-carbon and demonstration zone scenarios. Based on the total amount forecast, the carbon emissions of Zhangjiakou City were decomposed by sectors, and the carbon emission forecast methods of the sub-sectors of Zhangjiakou City were established bottom-up to predict the carbon emissions of the three sectors of industry, transportation and construction by 2030. By prediction, it is found that under the reference scenario, the carbon emissions of the three sectors will show a rapid growth trend. More specifically, the industrial sector will reach carbon emission peak in 2020 and 2016 under the low-carbon scenario and the demonstration zone scenario, respectively. In order to achieve the peak as soon as possible, carbon emissions from thermal power and steel industries should be strictly controlled. As the transportation sector is greatly affected by the Winter Olympics, under the reference scenario, its emissions will show a slight decline after 2022 and then rise rapidly. However, under the low-carbon scenario and the demonstration zone scenario, the carbon emissions of the transportation sector will reach the carbon emission peak in 2022 and 2020, respectively. If the transportation sector is supposed to reach the peak as soon as possible, the contribution of emission reduction will mainly be road freight and private cars. Due to the establishment and development of the data center, the construction department will consume a large amount of electricity, resulting in rapid growth in energy consumption under the three scenarios, and the establishment of the data center will gradually become the main energy consumption component of the construction department. Nevertheless, as the degree of substitution of fossil energy power has increased, although the energy consumption of data centers is still large, the carbon VI | 张家口市碳排放总量控制方法学及政策建议 emissions will fall rapidly, which will benefit the construction sector to reach a carbon emission peak around 2023 in the demonstration zone scenario. According to the “Development Plan for Renewable Energy Demonstration Zone of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province”, combined with the requirements of promoting the revolution in energy consumption, energy supply, energy technology and energy system and conduct international cooperation, considering the characteristics of Zhangjiakou City, our study has provided a work plan. It suggests that Zhangjiakou City should give full play to the strategic advantages of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development to form a complementary supply-demand relationship with Beijing in natural resources, agricultural production, power industry, and investment funds. The Beijing-Zhangjiakou linkage should be used as an opportunity to further intensify the development of tourism and leisure industry and enhance the urban influence of Zhangjiakou. The city should seize the opportunity of the 2022 Winter Olympics, vigorously develop the ice and snow industry, optimizing and upgrading the industrial chain. Moreover, Zhangjiakou needs to adhere to the mode of “Ice and Snow ” to form a special industry development idea of “Ice and Snow Culture”, increasing the proportion of sports leisure tourism service industry, and make sports leisure service become the “leader” of the development of Zhangjiakou sports industry. At the same time, through the development of green financial products, the city should promote the industrial layout of Zhangjiakou’s “Ecological conservation Functional Area” and “Water Conservation Functional Area”. Total quantity carbon emission control is an important restrain method of reaching the carbon emission peaks and implementing carbon emission control goals. Based on a detailed understanding of the carbon emissions in Zhangjiakou City, the establishment of urban carbon emission control methodology research and the putting forward of total carbon emission control decomposition optimization plan will greatly and impressively promote the city’s low-carbon development process, helping to implement the requirement of national carbon emission quantity control and promote the realization of the goal of carbon emission peak as soon as possible. With sincere appreciation, the study of the project is inseparable from the supports and guidance of Environmental and Economic Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Science and Technology Development Center of Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Energy Institute of National Development and Reform Commission, Policy and Regulation Division of National Research Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Sustainable Development Research Center of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Environment Academy of the Renmin University of China, and the China Urban Science Research Institute, many of thanks 第一部分研究背景、目标与内容 | VII 目录 CONTENTS 一研究背景、目标与内容 01 1.1 研究背景与意义 01 1.2 研究目标与主要任务 05 二张家口的现状特征 06 2.1 社会经济发展概况 06 2.2 发展机遇与挑战 09 2.2.1 京津冀协同发展战略 09 2.2.2 国家级可再生能源示范区 10 2.2.3 2022年北京-张家口冬季奥运会 15 2.3 张家口市能源消费和碳排放现状特征 15 2.3.1 能源供需和消费现状 15 2.3.2 分部门能耗发展现状 17 2.3.3 碳排放现状特征 22 2.3.4 碳排放控制进展 23 2.4 低碳发展目标 31 2.4.1 控制碳排放总量 31 2.4.2 利用可再生能源 32 2.4.3 空气质量优化提升 32 2.5 小结 33 三张家口碳排放总量预测及部门分解 34 3.1 模型构建 34 3.2 能耗总量及碳排放预测 36 3.2.1 能耗总量预测 36 3.2.2 碳排放总量预测 38 VIII | 张家口市碳排放总量控制方法学及政策建议 3.3 碳排放总量目标部门分解 41 3.3.1 工业部门 41 3.3.2 交通部门 43 3.3.3 建筑部门 48 3.4 小结 56 四张家口碳排放总量控制的政策建议 57 4.1 碳排放总量控制路径研究的方法学 57 4.2 碳排放总量控制目标 58 4.3 基于利益相关者需求的政策建议 59 4.3.1 政府管理者经验与建议 59 4.3.2 用能企业需求 60 4.3.3 城乡居民需求 60 4.4 碳排放总量控制工作方案建议 64 4.4.1 指导思想和主要目标 64 4.4.2 主要任务 64 4.4.3 保障措施 66 4.5 小结 67 参考文献 68 附件1张家口市碳排放目标部门分解模型参数设置 70 附件2张家口市“四方协作机制”实施现状 76 附件3张家口居民低碳参与意愿调研概况 79 附件4张家口居民低碳参与意愿的调研问卷 86 第一部分研究背景、目标与内容 | 1 随着城市不断发展，能源消费日益增长，由能源消费带来的环境和气候影响日趋严重。低碳发展作为一种低能耗、低污染、低排放的可持续发展模式，是缓解能源和环境问题的重要途径。深入开展低碳发展建设研究，明确实现碳排放峰值路线图，并在此基础上探索零碳排放目标，已成为当下我国应对气候变化和生态文明建设的重要任务。国务院印发的“十三五”控制温室气体排放工作方案明确提出到2020年，单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比 2015 年下降 18；支持优化开发区域在 2020 年前实现碳排放率先达峰；鼓励其他区域提出峰值目标，明确达峰路线图；要求在部分发达省市研究探索开展碳排放总量控制，鼓励“中国达峰先锋城市联盟”城市和其他具备条件的城市加大减排力度，力争提前完成达峰目标。碳排放总量控制是实现碳达峰的重要约束手段，是落实碳排放控制目标的主要方法，是开展碳排放权交易体系的支撑条件。城市是国家碳排放的主要组成部分，因此，在详细了解城市碳排放情况的基础上，建立城市碳排放总量控制方法学研究，提出城市碳排放总量控制分解优化方案，推进城市的低碳发展进程，有助于落实全国碳排放总量控制的要求，并促成碳排放达峰目标的尽快实现。张家口市位于河北省西北部和我国“三北”地区交汇处，既是京津冀地区重要的生态涵养区和国家规划的新能源基地之一，也是“一带一路”中蒙俄经济走廊重要节点城市。随着京津冀协同发展战略的全面实施、北京携手张家口申办冬奥会的成功和可再生能源示范区规划的获批，张家口迎来了千载难逢的发展机遇，同时也面临着严峻的低碳转型工作所带来的压力和挑战。张家口市国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要和河北省张家口市可再生能源示范区发展规划均提出了“到2020年实现可再生能源消费量占终端能源消费量的比重达到30”的目标。后者还明确要求到2020 年 40 的工业企业实现零碳排放，并在张家口市崇礼县建设国际领先的“低碳奥运专区”，打造低碳奥运场馆，实现体育场馆的供热及用电100采用可再生能源。此外，河北省“十三五”控制温室气体排放工作实施方案要求“十三五”期间，张家口碳排放强度比2015年下降22。面对城市发展、申办冬奥会和碳减排的多目标要求，如何有效协调各目标，实现低碳发展，是张家口市目前面临的主要问题。探索张家口市碳排放总量控制方法和政策研究，明确张家口市未来中长期的转型发展路径，将有力推动其碳减排目标、可再生能源示范区以及冬奥建设等目标的实现。一研究背景、目标与内容 1.1 研究背景与意义 co 2 18 22 30 2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2015 年下降 “十三五”期间张家口碳排放强度比2015年下降 2020年张家口市可再生能源消费量占终端能源消费量的比重目标 2 | 张家口市碳排放总量控制方法学及政