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China’s New Growth Pathway From the 14 th Five-Year Plan to Carbon Neutrality Synthesis Report 2020 on China’s Carbon Neutrality Acknowledgments This report is the product of a collaborative effort between Energy Foundation China and a multi-team research consortium. The research consortium is coordinated by the Energy Foundation China and the University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability and includes both Chinese and international research institutions. Energy Foundation China and the project team would like to thank the Energy Foundation China’s Long-term Strategy for Decarbonization Task Force Advisory Roundtable, stakeholders, and reviewers that provide suggestions for improving the framing and analysis of this report. Reviewers Listed by alphabetical order of last name Sonia Aggarwal Vice President, Energy Innovation Rongchun Bai Deputy Director, National Energy Standardization Committee Richard Baron Executive Director, 2050 Pathways Platform Jae Edmonds Chief Scientist and Battelle Fellow, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory s PNNL Joint Global Change Research Institute Michael Greenstone Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics, the College, and the Harris School, University of Chicago Cameron Hepburn Professor of Environmental Economics and Director of Smith School, University of Oxford Frank Jotzo Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy; Director, Centre for Climate and Energy Policy Kejun Jiang Senior Researcher, Energy Research Institute ERI of the National Development and Reform Commission Elmar Kriegler Acting Head of the Research Department “Transformation Pathways“, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Amory Lovins Co-founder and Chairman Emeritus, Rocky Mountain Institute Junfeng Li Professor former U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change Jim Skea Professor, Research Councils UK Energy Strategy Fellow at Imperial College London, Co-chair of IPCC working group III Antonio Soria Head of Unit, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Unit C.6 - Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport Robert Stowe Executive Director, Harvard Environmental Economics Program and Co-Director of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements Massimo Tavoni Professor of Climate Change Economics, Politecnico di Milano,Director, RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment Lord Adair Turner Chair, Energy Transitions Commission; Senior Fellow, Institute for New Economic Thinking Yi Wang Vice President, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Member of the Standing Committee of National People’s Congress Zhixuan Wang Secretary General，China Electricity Council John Ward Managing Director, Pengwern Associates Matthias Weitzel Project Officer, European Commission, Joint Research Centre Harald Winkler Professor, Energy Research Centre of University of Cape Town, Coordinating Lead Author of IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII Chunping Xie Policy Fellow, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Dadi Zhou Executive Vice President, China Energy Research Society; former Director General of the Energy Research Institute; Member of the State Expert Advisory Committee to China’s 14 th FYP; Deputy Group Leader, Expert Group to the National Energy Development of China’s 14 th FYP Rong Zhou Green finance expert, International Finance Corporation Suggested citation Energy Foundation China 2020. “Synthesis Report 2020 on China’s Carbon Neutrality China’s New Growth Pathway from the 14 th Five Year Plan to Carbon Neutrality.” Energy Foundation China, Beijing, China. Available at https//www. efchina.org/Reports-en/report-lceg-20201210-en. RESEARCH CONSORTIUM AND AUTHOR TEAM Coordinating lead authors → Energy Foundation China Sha Fu, Xuan Du → University of Maryland Leon Clarke, Sha Yu Lead authors Listed by alphabetical order of institutions and authors → China Academy of Transportation Sciences Zhenhua Feng, Xuecheng Wang → Energy Foundation China Lingyan Chen, Zhuoxiang Yang → Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen Junling Liu → Innovative Green Development Program Li Yang → International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Nicklas Forsell, Fei Guo, Volker Krey → Renmin University of China Minpeng Chen, Ke Wang → Tsinghua University Qimin Chai, Qiang Zhang → University of Maryland Ryna Cui, Nathan Hultman, Jiehong Lou, Jiawei Song China’s New Growth Pathway From the 14 th Five Year Plan to Carbon Neutrality December 2020 FOREWORD This September, President Xi Jinping announced an am- bitious, first-ever post-2030 climate target that China will strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The announcement is hugely significantperhaps the biggest positive climate development globally since the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, achieving the carbon neutrality target will be immensely challenging. Energy Foundation China EF China is a non-profit charitable organization that has been working in China since 1999. We are committed to promoting prosperity, sustainable development, and climate security for China and the world. Three years ago, EF China launched our first and highest priority flagship initiativethe Long- Term Strategy for Decarbonization Task Force LTS. Over the past three years, we have steadily built capacity and strategically supported research to make the case for a new, low-carbon growth model toward sustainable prosperity and carbon neutrality. In June 2019, we finalized our LTS strategy, including overall goals to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 and climate neutrality by 2070. That same week, at the annual meeting of the China Council for International Cooperation on Environ- ment and Development in Hangzhou, we first presented this vision for China’s long-term climate targets to senior Chinese policymakers. For over a year, we have steadily engaged climate and energy experts, as well as those in economics and development, to make the case for the feasibility and opportunity of net zero. In support of our vision for a carbon neutral China, EF China has invested considerable efforts both domestically and internationally. Early on, our LTS Task Force initiated a joint research project with Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development ICCSD at Tsinghua University on China’s long-term low carbon development strategy and pathways, engaging 24 top think tanks in China. In parallel, to introduce international perspec- tives, EF China engaged the several international leading think tanks including International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, University of Maryland, Joint Research Centre European Commission, and other experts to advise on China’s Mid-Century Strategy, and cooperated with the International Energy Agency, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 2050 Pathway Platform, and E3G in LTS modelling and technical discussions. Through these wide-ranging partnerships, EF China culti- vated a network of international and domestic modelers, powered the exchange of knowledge in the climate and energy research field, and created a multilateral open intellectual platform for cooperation. Meanwhile, to popularize the notion of carbon neutrality, EF China orga- nized international advisory roundtables and Economists Dialogues to showcase solid evidence for decarbonizing. Finally, EF China has been facilitating decarbonization pilot programs at sectoral and local levels to demonstrate and catalyze real changes on the ground. Today, we are excited to release our first synthesis report based on multi-model comparison research and other knowledge sourcesa major milestone for the LTS Task Force. The report features comprehensive views from prestigious research teams in China and abroad and helps fulfill EF China’s role as a strategic advisor, facili- tator and regrantor leveraging comprehensive insights to inform policymakers. The report sets out the broad outlines of decarboniza- tion, identifies key elements of strategy across the econ- omy and within individual economic sectors, and points toward continued research needs to support China’s success in meeting its 2060 pledge and long-term goals for growth and development. The publication of this synthesis report may contribute to build the narrative of 14 th Five-Year Plan, would not be possible without China’s growing willingness to lead and cooperate with the international community in global climate agenda in a confident and open manner, laying the foundation for multilateral solutions to global issues. China is poised today to accelerate its movement onto a new growth pathway toward a clean and vibrant economy that provides broadly shared benefits across China. EF China will continue to support research for an “all-win” pathway for deep decarbonization in China, facilitate the green and low-carbon transition of the Chinese economy, and help “tell the China New Growth Story.” 2020 has been a rollercoaster of a year. We hope this report is a gift at this moment. Our author team has spent innumerable hours writing this report around the clock and even through lockdowns. I would like to extend my deep gratitude and big congratulations to the amazing and world-class author team and appreciate all the efforts from everyone on the advisory roundtable, who spent valuable time among their super busy agenda. My special thanks go to my dream team in EF China, who are creating a miracle. Without your great efforts and help, we would not have been able to produce this gift. Thank you Zou Ji CEO Historical emissions intensity relative to economic output in selected countries Panel B; Historical emissions per capita in selected countries Panel C; Historical emissions by sector in China Panel D. P15 FIGURE 3-2. China’s CO 2 and selected non-CO 2 GHG emissions for 1.5°C and 2.0°C scenarios from selected scenarios. P17 FIGURE 3-3. CO 2 emissions from selected models in 2035 and 2050 in 1.5°C scenarios along with actual CO 2 emissions in 2015 top panel; sectoral CO 2 reductions across models relative to 2015 bottom table. P19 FIGURE 3-4A. Primary energy in 1.5°C scenarios synthesized in this report. P21 FIGURE 3-4B. Final energy in 1.5°C scenarios synthesized in this report. P22 FIGURE 3-5. Cross-cutting mitigation strategies and their application in different sectors. P23 FIGURE 4-1. Electricity generation by technology, 2007-2017. P33 FIGURE 4-2. Electricity sector CO 2 emissions in 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. P35 FIGURE 4-3. Share of conventional coal generation Panel A and non-fossil generation Panel B in China’s power generation in 1.5°C scenarios from selected scenarios. P36 FIGURE 4-4. Total electricity generation Panel A and fraction of different technologies in total electricity generation in 1.5°C scenarios Panel B. P38 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3 CHAPTER 4 iv FIGURE 4-5. Sources of power system flexibility. P39 FIGURE 4-6. Final “operational” energy use in the buildings sector. P44 FIGURE 4-7. Building stock dynamics from 2006-2018. P45 FIGURE 4-8. Buildings sector direct CO 2 emissions in 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. P47 FIGURE 4-9. Final energy use in Chinese buildings in 1.5°C scenarios. P48 FIGURE 4-10. Buildings sector’s electrification in 1.5°C scenarios. P48 FIGURE 4-11. Changes in China s output of major industrial products and its share in world production. P53 FIGURE 4-12. China s future demand for major industrial products through 2050. P54 FIGURE 4-13. Industrial sector CO 2 emissions in 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. P56 FIGURE 4-14. Industrial final energy consumption in 1.5°C scenarios P57 FIGURE 4-15. Electricity, hydrogen, and biomass percentages in industrial final energy consumption in 1.5°C scenarios. P60 FIGURE 4-16. Energy-related CO 2 emissions and shares of transport energy demand by mode in 2018. P65 FIGURE 4-17. Transportation sector CO 2 emissions in 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. P67 FIGURE 4-18. Normalized projections of transportation sector activity in tonne-km for freight and in passenger-km for passenger in three 1.5°C scenarios. P68 FIGURE 4-19. Electricity percentage in total transportation energy consumption Panel A and two illustrative scenarios of energy demand and fuel mix in the transportation sector Panel B. P69 FIGURE 4-20. Historical composition of AFOLU agriculture and LULUCF GHG emissions and removals. P75 FIGURE 4-21. China’s population projections under different scenarios. P76 v FIGURE 4-22. Projections of China’s per capita consumption. P77 FIGURE 4-23. Projections of total GHG emissions for the AFOLU sector in 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. P79 FIGURE 4-24. Projections of N 2 O and CH 4 emissions for the AFOLU sector in 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. P80 FIGURE 4-25. Net CO 2 emissions for the LULUCF sector in 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. P82 FIGURE 5-1. Top 20 markets in renewable energy capacity investment between 2010 and 2019 Panel A and investment in renewable energy capacity in 2019 Panel B. P88 FIGURE 5-2. China’s annual energy investment by category in 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. P89 FIGURE 5-3. Climate related risks, opportunities, and financial impacts. P93 FIGURE 5-4. Transition risk stress test. P93 FIGURE 5-5. Roles of different financial institutions in managing risks. P94 FIGURE 5-6. 2019 Progress report of UK-China climate and environmental information Disclosure Pilot. P96 CHAPTER 5 vi 1 CHINA’S NEW GROWTH PATHWAY FROM THE 14 TH FIVE-YEAR PLAN TO CARBON NEUTRALITY 2SYNTHESIS REPORT 2020 ON CHINA’S CARBON NEUTRALITY 1. INTRODUCTION China sits today at the confluence of a number of important changes – rapid technological, energy, and industrial revolutions, increasing Chinese international leadership, a growing and increasingly prosperous middle class, and slowing domestic economic growth. In the near term, these trends are intersecting with the global economic downturn as well as the health and social implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. Layered on all of these is the challenge of climate change and the need for the global community to address this urgent planetary crisis. Together, these changes present a set of challenges as China looks to both its immediate and its long-term future. It is possible to respond to these challenges in a way that navigates a new path toward growth in China, even as the economy moves toward carbon neutrality before 2060. This is the new growth pathway that will enable China to strengthen its economy, create new sources of employment, foster new innovation and industrial competitiveness, and in doing so, reach the goal of an “ecological civilization.” Even as China creates this new growth pathway for its own economy, it will create broader benefits for addressing global climate change. China’s role in climate mitigation is critical. China is currently the world’s largest greenhouse gas GHG emitter, second only to the United States in cumulative emissions. China’s contribution to global emissions reductions is abso