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Emissions Gap Emissions Gap Report 2020 © 2020 United Nations Environment Programme ISBN 978-92-807-3812-4 Job number DEW/2310/NA This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The United Nations Environment Programme would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the United Nations Environment Programme. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Director, Communication Division, United Nations Environment Programme, P. O. Box 30552, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. Disclaimers The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations Environment Programme concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. For general guidance on matters relating to the use of maps in publications please go to http//www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/english/ htmain.htm Mention of a commercial company or product in this document does not imply endorsement by the United Nations Environment Programme or the authors. The use of information from this document for publicity or advertising is not permitted. Trademark names and symbols are used in an editorial fashion with no intention on infringement of trademark or copyright laws. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Environment Programme. We regret any errors or omissions that may have been unwittingly made. © Maps, photos and illustrations as specified Suggested citation United Nations Environment Programme 2020. Emissions Gap Report 2020. Nairobi. Production United Nations Environment Programme UNEP and UNEP DTU Partnership UDP. https//www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020 Supported by UNEP promotes environmentally sound practices globally and in its own activities. Our distribution policy aims to reduce UNEP s carbon footprint.Emissions Gap Report 2020Emissions Gap Report 2020 V Acknowledgements Acknowledgements The United Nations Environment Programme UNEP would like to thank the members of the steering committee, the lead and contributing authors, reviewers and the secretariat for their contribution to the preparation of this assessment report. Authors and reviewers have contributed to the report in their individual capacities. Their affiliations are only mentioned for identification purposes. Project steering committee Juliane Berger German Environment Agency, John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership, Navroz K. Dubash Centre for Policy Research, India, James Foster UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Samuel Karslake UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Mike Keoghan UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Jian Liu UNEP, Simon Maxwell independent, Surabi Menon ClimateWorks Foundation, Bert Metz European Climate Foundation, Katia Simeonova United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – UNFCCC, Priyadarshi Shukla Ahmedabad University and Oksana Tarasova World Meteorological Organization Authors Chapter 1 Author Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, Denmark Chapter 2 Lead authors Takeshi Kuramochi NewClimate Institute, Germany, Michel den Elzen PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands and Glen P. Peters Center for International Climate Research – CICERO, Norway Contributing authors Caitlin Bergh University of Cape Town, South Africa, Monica Crippa Joint Research Centre/ European Commission, European Union EU, Andreas Geiges Climate Analytics, Germany, Catrina Godinho HUMBOLDT-VIADRINA Governance Platform, Germany, Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga NewClimate Institute, Germany, Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter Climate Analytics, Germany, Kimon Keramidas Joint Research Centre/European Commission, EU, Yong Gun Kim Korea Environment Institute, the Republic of Korea, Swithin Lui NewClimate Institute, Germany, Zhu Liu Tsinghua University, China, Jos Olivier PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands, Leonardo Nascimento NewClimate Institute, Germany, Joana Portugal Pereira Graduate School of Engineering COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Değer Saygin SHURA, Turkey, Claire Stockwell Climate Analytics, Germany, Jorge Villareal Iniciativa Climática de México, Mexico, William Wills COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Chapter 3 Lead authors Joeri Rogelj Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, UK; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis – IIASA, Austria, Michel den Elzen PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands and Joana Portugal Pereira Graduate School of Engineering COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Contributing authors Niklas Höhne NewClimate Institute, Germany, Daniel Huppmann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis – IIASA, Austria, Gunnar Luderer Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany Chapter 4 Lead authors Niklas Höhne NewClimate Institute, Germany, Frederic Hans NewClimate Institute, Germany and Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, Denmark Contributing authors Parth Bhatia Centre for Policy Research, India, Brian O Callaghan University of Oxford, UK, Sherillyn Raga Overseas Development Institute, UK, Nigel Yau University of Oxford, UK Chapter 5 Lead authors Jasper Faber CE Delft, the Netherlands and David S. Lee Manchester Metropolitan University, UK Contributing authors Susanne Becken Griffith University, Australia, James J. Corbett Energy and Environmental Research Associates, USA, Nick Cumpsty Imperial College London, UK, Gregg Fleming Volpe Center, U.S. Department of Transportation, USA, Tore Longva DNV GL, Norway, Marianne Tronstad Lund Center for International Climate Research – CICERO, Norway, Tristan Smith University College London, UK Chapter 6 Lead authors Stuart Capstick Cardiff University, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK, Radhika Khosla University of Oxford, UK and Susie Wang Climate Outreach, UK Contributing authors Nicole van den Berg Utrecht University, the Netherlands, Diana Ivanova University of Leeds, UK, Ilona M. Otto Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, Timothy Gore Oxfam International, UK, Adam Corner Climate Outreach, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations, UK, Lewis Akenji Hot or Cool Institute, Germany, Claire Hoolohan University of Manchester, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK, Kate Power KR Foundation, Denmark, Lorraine Whitmarsh University of Bath, Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK Emissions Gap Report 2020 VI Reviewers Thibaut Abergel International Energy Agency, Ritu Ahuja The Energy and Resources Institute, Juan-Carlos Altamirano World Resources Institute, Pieter Boot PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Netherlands, Kathryn Jennifer Bowen Australian National University, Laura Brimont Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Jan Burck Germanwatch, Marina Bylinsky Airports Council International Europe, Sylvain Cail Enerdata, Katherine Calvin Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Nicolas Campion Danish Technical University, Jasmin Cantzler GIZ, Cyril Cassisa International Energy Agency, Rachel Chi Kiu Mok World Bank, Laura Cozzi International Energy Agency, Daniel Crow International Energy Agency, Sophia David UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Chiara Delmastro International Energy Agency, Steffen Dockweiler Klimarådet, Sebastian Eastham Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lukas Fesenfeld ETH Zurich, Olivia Flynn UK Department for Transport, James Foster UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Andreas Frömelt ETH Zurich, Katja Funke International Monetary Fund, Harikumar Gadde World Bank, Mengpin Ge World Resources Institute, Franck Gouéry EU Directorate -General for Climate Action, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen Finnish Meteorological Institute, Yasuko Kameyama National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, Samuel Karslake UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Noah Kaufman Columbia University, Terry Keating United States Environmental Protection Agency, Enrique Maurtua Konstantinidis Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Gabriel Labbate United Nations Environment Programme, Alan David Lee World Bank, Gerd Leipold HUMBOLDT-VIADRINA Governance Platform, Mason Scott Lester Danish Technical University, Sharon Lo UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Karan Mangotra The Energy and Resources Institute, Toshihiko Masui National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, Patrick Matthewson UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Axel Michaelowa Perspectives Climate Group, Daniel Beat Müller Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Andrei Mungiu EU delegation to the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation – CORSIA, Marie Münster Danish Technical University, Tirthankar Nag International Management Institute, Kolkata, Miles Perry EU Directorate -General for Climate Action, Apostolos Petropoulos International Energy Agency, Annie Petsonk Environmental Defense Fund, Pedro Piris-Cabezas Environmental Defense Fund, Rhian Rees- Owen UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Yann Robiou du Pont Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Michael Russo University of Aveiro, Mateo Salazar Vivid Economics, Himanshu Sharma United Nations Environmental Programme, Chandra Shekhar Sinha World Bank, Sandhya Srinivasan World Bank, Julia Steinberger University of Leeds, Kentaro Tamura Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan, Jacopo Tattini International Energy Agency, Jacob Teter International Energy Agency, Tom Van Ierland EU Directorate -General for Climate Action, Tiffany Vass International Energy Agency, Benjamin Walker UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, George Williams UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Zhao Xiusheng Tsinghua University Chief scientific editors Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership and John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership Editorial support Olivier Bois von Kursk UNEP DTU Partnership and James Haselip UNEP DTU Partnership Secretariat and project coordination Anne Olhoff UNEP DTU Partnership, Olivier Bois von Kursk UNEP DTU Partnership, John Christensen UNEP DTU Partnership, Kaisa Uusimaa UNEP, Maarten Kappelle UNEP, Ying Wang UNEP and Edoardo Zandri UNEP Media and launch support Daniel Cooney UNEP, David Cole UNEP, Carlota Estalella Alba UNEP, Florian Fussstetter UNEP, Keishamaza Rukikaire UNEP, Maria Vittoria Galassi UNEP, Michael Logan UNEP, Nancy Groves UNEP, Neha Sud UNEP, Pooja Munshi UNEP, Viola Kup UNEP, Mette Annelie Rasmussen UNEP DTU Partnership, Lasse Hemmingsen UNEP DTU Partnership and several other members of the UNEP communication division Design and layout Joseph Sebastian Cover, Caren Weeks Figures, Strategic Agenda Layout Translation of the executive summary and language editing Strategic Agenda Thanks also to Niklas Hagelberg UNEP, Pinya Sarasas UNEP, Angeline Djampou UNEP, Sofía Méndez Mora UNEP, Garrette Clark UNEP, Susan Mutebi-Richards UNEP, Harsha Dave UNEP, Abdelmenam Mohamed UNEP, Mohamed Atani UNEP, Ekaterina Tegina UNEP, Roel Hoenders International Maritime Organization – IMO, Camille Bourgeon IMO, John Calleya IMO, Gerd Leipold Climate Transparency, Catrina Godinho Climate Transparency and Beatriz Martinez Romera University of Copenhagen Finally, UNEP would like to thank the ClimateWorks Foundation, the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety BMU, the KR Foundation and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency SIDA for supporting the work of the Emissions Gap Report.Emissions Gap Report 2020 VII Contents Acknowledgements V Glossary IX Foreword XIII Executive summary XIV Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Context of the Emissions Gap Report 2020 1 1.2 Focus and approach of the report 1 1.3 Structure of the report 2 Chapter 2 Global emissions trends and G20 status and outlook 3 2.1 Introduction 3 2.2 Current global emissions status and trends 4 2.3 Achievement of Cancun Pledges by G20 members, considering the potential impact of COVID-19 10 2.4 Assessment of G20 members’ progress towards NDC targets 10 2.5 The need to translate long-term net-zero emissions goals into near-term ambition and action 23 Chapter 3 The emissions gap 25 3.1 Introduction 25 3.2 The 2030 emissions gap 25 3.3 Scenarios considered for the 2030 gap assessment 28 3.4 Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated rescue and recovery measures on GHG emissions by 2030 31 3.5 Implications of the emissions gap for the feasibility of achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement 33 Chapter 4 Bridging the gap – implications of current COVID-19 fiscal rescue and recovery measures 36 4.1 Introduction 36 4.2 Unprecedented global fiscal spending on economic rescue and recovery measures 37 4.3 Fiscal COVID-19 spending has so far primarily supported the global status quo of high-carbon economic production 38 4.4 Emerging lessons and examples for governments in the pursuit of low-carbon economic recovery 40 Chapter 5 Bridging the gap – the role of international shipping and aviation 52 5.1 Introduction and framing 52 5.2 Current emissions, projections and drivers 52 5.3 Mitigation options 55 5.4 Pathways to lower emissions 58 5.5 Conclusions 60 Chapter 6 Bridging the gap – the role of equitable low-carbon lifestyles 62 6.1 The consumption problem and why lifestyles are critical to tackling climate change 62 6.2 Achieving lifestyle emissions reduction by sector 64 6.3 Realizing lifestyle change which mechanisms encourage lo