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Technology 2020 Perspectives Energy Special Report on Clean Energy Innovation Accelerating technology progress for a sustainable future Energy Technology Perspectives Foreword Special Report on Clean Energy Innovation PAGE | 2 I E A. A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . Foreword There is no doubt that the energy sector will only reach net-zero emissions if there is a significant and concerted global push to accelerate innovation. It is also clear that there is a disconnect between the climate goals that governments and companies have set for themselves and the efforts underway to develop better and cheaper technologies to realise those goals. While we have witnessed tremendous progress in technologies like solar PV, wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries, the technological advances that will be needed demand a step change in both the speed at which innovation occurs and the scale at which new technologies are deployed. And this progress must be achieved in a way that makes our energy systems more secure and resilient. The energy innovation challenge facing the world extends to sectors that have not significantly changed for many decades and that do not yet have commercially available low-carbon options. It also requires a rapid evolution of the technology mix, particularly in some emerging economies that are just starting out on their decarbonisation journeys. The under-appreciation of these urgent challenges in today’s energy debate is a real concern. However, this Energy Technology Perspectives Special Report on Clean Energy Innovation provides reason for hope. It pinpoints the areas where innovation is most urgently needed and, crucially, recommends that governments integrate clean energy innovation into the heart of their energy policy making. This report represents a new chapter in the International Energy Agency’s IEA work under the Energy Technology Perspectives ETP banner. It is three years since the IEA released its last ETP report, and we have used that time to reflect on the critical technology challenges that need to be addressed in such sectors as long-distance transport and heavy industry, which are all too often neglected. The time away has also allowed us to develop improved modelling tools that now provide us with unparalleled capacity to answer key technology questions in more detail. The return of ETP, starting with this Special Report and continuing with the release of the flagship ETP 2020 publication later in 2020, could not come at a more pivotal moment as Covid-19 has further complicated efforts to accelerate clean energy transitions. Since the crisis erupted, the IEA has mobilised its resources to support governments and other energy stakeholders, notably with the publication of our Sustainable Recovery Plan as part of the World Energy Outlook WEO series. The plan shows how specific policies and targeted investments over the next three years could simultaneously boost economic growth, create millions of jobs and make 2019 the definitive peak in global greenhouse gas emissions. This ETP Special Report builds on that foundation by setting out the key priorities for innovation to continually drive emissions down from that peak, all the way to net-zero. Together, the ETP and WEO reports will provide the foundation for the IEA Clean Energy Transitions Summit, which will bring together dozens of ministers and CEOs, as well as leaders from the investment community and civil society, with the aim of driving economic development by accelerating transitions towards clean, resilient and inclusive energy systems. It is my firm conviction that the efforts we are now making – including the revamp of the ETP series – are significant advances in the IEA’s modernisation agenda that I launched in 2015, which is putting the Agency at the forefront of sustainable and secure clean energy transitions globally. Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director International Energy Agency Energy Technology Perspectives Acknowledgements Special Report on Clean Energy Innovation PAGE | 3 I E A. A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy Division within the Directorate on Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks STO in co-operation with other directorates and offices of the International Energy Agency. The study was designed and directed by Timur Gül Head of the Energy Technology Policy Division. The analysis and production of the report was co-ordinated by Araceli Fernandez Pales. The main authors were Araceli Fernandez Pales and Simon Bennett. The main contributors were Thibaut Abergel co-lead on buildings modelling and heat pumps analysis, Praveen Bains bioenergy, Jose Miguel Bermudez Menendez hydrogen, Chiara Delmastro co-lead on buildings modelling and cooling analysis, Alexandre Gouy batteries recycling, Peter Levi lead on industry modelling and analysis, Raimund Malischek CCUS, Hana Mandova industry, Leonardo Paoli batteries, spillovers, patents, Francesco Pavan industry, Uwe Remme lead on energy transformation and supply modelling, Jacopo Tattini transport, Jacob Teter lead on transport modelling and analysis, Tiffany Vass lightweighting, policy, industry and Sadanand Wachche batteries recycling. Other contributors were Marine Gorner, Pierre Leduc, Taku Hasegawa, Trevor Morgan and Per-Anders Widell. Caroline Abettan, Claire Hilton, Reka Koczka and Diana Louis provided essential support. Edmund Hosker carried editorial responsibility. Jennifer Allain was the copy-editor. The main contributors from across the agency were Niels Berghout CCUS, Sara Budinis DAC, Jean-Baptiste Le Marois policy, innovation metrics and Luis Munuera technology readiness, spillovers. Other contributors were Adam Baylin-Stern, Louis Blanluet and Pharoah Le Feuvre. Mechthild Wörsdörfer, Director of STO, provided encouragement and support throught the project. Valuable comments and feedback were provided by other senior management and other colleagues within the IEA, in particular Nick Johnstone, Keisuke Sadamori, Laura Cozzi, Laszlo Varro, Joel Couse, Paolo Frankl, Tim Gould, Brian Motherway and Samantha McCulloch. Thanks also go to the Communications and Digital Office CDO for their help in producing the report, including Jad Mouawad, Head of CDO, and Jon Custer, Astrid Dumond, Tanya Dyhin, Christopher Gully, Maria Kyriacou, Jethro Mullen, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin, Julie Puech and Therese Walsh. Energy Technology Perspectives Acknowledgements Special Report on Clean Energy Innovation PAGE | 4 I E A. A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . The work could not have been achieved without the support provided by the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy. The analysis and findings in this report draw on strategic guidance received during an ETP-2020 consultation meeting with high-level energy officials and experts from government, industry, international organisations, finance and academia on 3 July 2019. Additional guidance came from insights, feedback and data obtained at a high- level workshop on accelerating energy innovation organised by the IEA organised in Paris on 18 December 2019. The work also benefited from information and views provided by participants within the Technology Collaboration Programme by the IEA, which brings together thousands of experts across government, academia and industry from 55 countries in order to accelerate energy technology innovation. Many experts from outside the IEA provided input, commented on the underlying analytical work and reviewed the report. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include Florian Ausfelder DECHEMA Monica Axell Research Institutes of Sweden Chris Bayliss International Aluminium Institute Nuno Bento Instituto Universitário de Lisboa Michel Berthelemy Nuclear Energy Agency Sama Bilbao y Leon Nuclear Energy Agency Herib Blanco University of Groningen Jean-Paul Bouttes EDF Nigel Brandon Imperial College Keith Burnard TCP on Greenhouse Gas R the application of carbon capture, utilisation and storage; the use of low-carbon hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels; and the use of bioenergy. However, each of these areas faces challenges in making all parts of its value chain commercially viable in the sectors where reducing emissions is hardest. Our new ETP Clean Energy Technology Guide 2 provides a framework for comparing the readiness for the market of more than 400 component technologies. CO 2 emissions reductions by technology readiness category in the Sustainable Development Scenario IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Notes Percentages refer to cumulative emissions reductions by 2070 between the Sustainable Development Scenario and baseline trends enabled by technologies at a given level of maturity today. Technologies that are at the prototype or demonstration stage today contribute more than one-third of the cumulative emissions reductions in the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario. 1 Sustainable trajectory or path to net-zero emissions refers to the Sustainable Development Scenario. 2 A new interactive tool developed by the IEA that provides detailed information and analysis on the level of maturity of over 400 different technology designs and components, as well as a compilation of cost and performance improvement targets and leading players in the field. Available online at www.iea.org/articles/etp-clean-energy- technology-guide. Energy Technology Perspectives Executive summary Special Report on Clean Energy Innovation PAGE | 13 I E A. A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . Early-stage technologies play an outsized role. Around 35 of the cumulative CO2 emissions reductions needed to shift to a sustainable path come from technologies currently at the prototype or demonstration phase. A further 40 of the reductions rely on technologies not yet commercially deployed on a mass-market scale. This calls for urgent efforts to accelerate innovation. The fastest energy-related examples in recent decades include consumer products like LEDs and lithium ion batteries, which took 10-30 years to go from the first prototype to the mass market. These examples must be the benchmarks for building the array of energy technologies to get to net-zero emissions. How innovation can help reach net-zero emissions goals faster If governments and companies want to move more quickly towards net-zero emissions, progress on early stage technologies needs to be accelerated. In this report, we present a Faster Innovation Case that explores how net-zero emissions could be achieved globally in 2050, partly by assuming that technologies currently only in the laboratory or at the stage of small prototypes today are quickly made available for commercial investment. There are big uncertainties around these technologies’ costs and timelines, but this theoretical case indicates what could be achieved through a global push on innovation. In our Faster Innovation Case, almost half of all the additional emissions reductions in 2050 relative to current policy plans would be from technologies that have not yet reached the market today. Relative to a case in which there is no improvement to technologies already in use today, early-stage technologies provide about one-third of the emissions reductions in the Faster Innovation Case. In practice, this case would require, for example, an average of two new hydrogen-based steel plants to begin operating every month between now and 2050. Currently, technology for these plants is only at the prototype stage. At the same time, 90 new bioenergy plants that capture and store their own CO2 emissions would need to be built every year. Today, there is only one large-scale facility in operation. Failure to accelerate progress now risks pushing the transition to net-zero emissions further into the future. The pace of innovation in coming decades will depend on the policies governments put in place today. A delay in demonstration projects and a slowdown in deployment of early adoption technologies following the Covid-19 crisis would require greater government efforts down the line, such as supporting new technologies for longer until they are competitive. For example, capital costs of key technologies like hydrogen electrolysers could increase by up to 10 by 2030, making it harder to scale up production. Energy Technology Perspectives Executive summary Special Report on Clean Energy Innovation PAGE | 14 I E A. A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . Avoiding huge amounts of “locked-in” emissions is crucial Aligning investment cycles with net-zero targets can create large markets for new technologies and avoid huge amounts of “locked in” emissions. For some energy sectors, 2050 is just one investment cycle away, making the timing of investments and the availability of new technologies critical. Boosting spending on low-carbon research and development and increasing investments in key demonstration projects for the most challenging sectors can be particularly effective. If the right technologies in the steel, cement and chemical sectors can reach the market in time for the next 25-year refurbishment cycle – due to start around 2030 – they can prevent nearly 60 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions GtCO2. “Unlocking” emissions reductions at the end of the next investment cycle in heavy industrial sectors IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Notes Typical lifetimes for steel and cement are 40 years; for chemicals, the average is 30 years. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, shown here, all assets are replaced by or converted to clean alternatives at the first 25-year refurbishment interval once the new technologies are commercially available. The end of the next 25-year investment cycle is an opportunity to reduce projected emissions from existing equipment in the steel, cement and chemicals industries by nearly 60 GtCO 2 , or 38. The Covid-19 crisis could cripple or catalyse energy innovation At a time when faster innovation is sorely needed, the Covid-19 pandemic has delivered a major setback. In the immediate future, the world’s capacity to bring new technologies to market will be weaker as a result of the disruptions caused by the pandemic. Market and policy uncertainties threaten to reduce the funds available to entrepreneurs. Innovation involves a wide range of participants, but governments have a pivotal role that goes far beyond simply funding research and development. They set overall national objectives and priorities, and are vital in determining market Energy Technology Perspectives Executive summary Special Report on Clean Energy Innovation PAGE | 15 I E A. A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . expectations, ensuring the flow of knowledge, investing in essential infrastructure, and enabling major demonstration projects to go ahead. If governments rise to the challenge created by the Covid-19 cr