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1“一带一路”国家分布式光伏发展潜力评估 WRI.ORG.CN CHARLIE DOU（都志杰）王珮珊袁敏苗红宋婧 “一带一路”国家分布式光伏发展潜力评估 ASSESSMENT OF DISTRIBUTED SOLAR PV POTENTIAL IN BRI COUNTRIES 2 WRI.org.cn 校对谢亮 hippie163.com 设计与排版张烨 harryzy5204gmail.com https//doi.org/10.46830/wrirpt.20.00130 I“一带一路”国家分布式光伏发展潜力评估目录 III 执行摘要 VII Executive Summary 1 第一章分布式光伏对“一带一路”国家的意义 1 “一带一路”及“一带一路”国家基本情况 4 分布式光伏在全球的进展 5 在“一带一路”国家发展分布式光伏的重要性 7 第二章 “一带一路”国家分布式光伏发展潜力评估 7 分布式光伏潜力评估方法学综述 8 资源侧建筑物屋顶分布式光伏潜力评估 12 需求侧无电地区分布式光伏潜力评估 15 分布式光伏应用场景 18 小结 21 第三章典型国家分布式光伏潜力评估 21 埃塞俄比亚 24 印度尼西亚 29 第四章结论与建议 33 附录 34 缩写表 35 注释 36 参考文献 II WRI.org.cn III“一带一路”国家分布式光伏发展潜力评估执行摘要主要结论 ▪ 近年来气候变化带来的灾难性极端天气更加频繁。作为主要的温室气体排放源，能源部门迫切需要从化石燃料向可再生能源转变。 ▪ 由于经济欠发达，大多数“一带一路”国家 i 应对气候变化更具挑战性。 ▪ 分布式光伏技术成熟，成本下降，可应用于“一带一路”沿线国家的多种场景，为当地经济发展和能源转型带来显著效益。 ▪ 本研究通过情景分析对分布式光伏在 141个“ 一带一路 ”国家的发展潜力进行了评估，包括住宅和工商业建筑的屋顶光伏装机潜力以及用于满足无电地区电气化需求的离网光伏装机潜力。 ▪ 评估结果显示，到 2030年，“ 一带一路 ” 沿线 141个国家的分布式光伏新增装机容量为 150～ 334GW，而离网光伏的装机潜力为 6.4～ 14.0GW。 IV WRI.org.cn 工业革命以来，全球地表平均气温升高导致的气候变化正在对世界各国社会经济发展造成越来越广泛的影响，如美国和澳大利亚的山火、埃塞俄比亚和印度尼西亚的干旱、中国河南郑州的特大暴雨灾害等。国际社会公认温室气体排放是导致气候变化的主因，而化石能源燃烧排放的二氧化碳占全球温室气体排放总量的76 1 。因此，加快世界各国能源系统由化石能源主导向可再生能源主导转变是全球应对气候变化的重中之重。气候变化对脆弱群体造成的威胁更加显而易见。联合国难民署的数据显示，大约90 的难民来自最脆弱和对适应气候变化影响最缺乏准备的国家 2 。“一带一路”国家大多数为发展中国家，其中一部分国家（特别是非OECD 国家）经济发展相对滞后，能源基础设施薄弱，仍有一定规模的人口无法获得电力。这些国家一方面需要大力发展经济，加快电力基础设施建设，改善民众生活；另一方面又受到气候变化带来的严峻挑战，需要在发展经济的同时采取有效措施减少温室气体排放。为应对全球气候变化，截至2021 年 11月，142 个 BRI国家中有139 个国家提交了国家自主贡献（Nationally Determined Contributions， NDCs）文件，其中，超过80的国家提出了可再生能源发展目标，约70的国家制定了量化目标。可再生能源分布式应用是与集中式电站并重的推广清洁能源发电的重要措施。 2010年以来，光伏发电成本下降超过 80 3 ，一些国家分布式光伏的平准化成本已显著低于居民用电价格，为大规模部署分布式光伏提供了可行性和广阔前景。但到目前为止，大部分BRI 141国家的非水可再生能源利用水平仍落后于全球平均水平。中国是全球范围内能源领域最大的投资者和设备供应商。在发展国内可再生能源的同时，促进海外绿色能源投资尤为重要。除了在海外投资建设可再生能源电站，我们应该认识到分布式可再生能源，特别是分布式光伏，在 “一带一路”沿线国家也有巨大的发展潜力和深远影响。例如，在住宅和工商业屋顶安装分布式光伏进行发电，也可以通过离网光伏系统为无电地区的人群提供电力。投资开发分布式可再生能源可以直接改善当地居民的生活质量，为实现可持续发展目标7确保所有人都能获得负担得起、可靠、可持续的现代能源做出贡献。本研究基于BRI国家的资源条件、经济发展阶段等因素，从分布式光伏在资源侧和需求侧的应用入手，通过构建 “基础情景”和“积极情景”，重点对141个 BRI国家屋顶光伏的开发潜力以及分布式光伏用于无电人口通电的开发潜力进行了测算，并选取埃塞俄比亚和印度尼西亚两个典型国家进行分析。评估结果可供BRI国家能源规划主管部门参考，也可为各国在海外进行可再生能源投资和开展清洁能源对外援助提供帮助。研究结果重在展示分布式光伏在BRI国家的开发潜力，而不是具体项目开发层面的分析。评估结果显示，到2030年，141 个 BRI国家分布式屋顶光伏新增装机容量潜力为150 ～ 334 GW，满足无电人口通电要求的分布式光伏装机容量为6.4～ 14.0 GW。在无电地区，分布式光伏的社会意义远大于经济意义，它直接关系到联合国可持续发展目标中“消除贫困”和“提供经济适用的清洁能源”等多个目标能否顺利实现。 BRI国家开发利用分布式光伏的意义和潜力需要得到规划者、决策者、投资者等相关方的充分关注。建议BRI 141国家的能源规划部门和决策部门将分布式光伏纳入本国的能源规划，积极营造有利于分布式光伏开发利用的政策环境；建议城市、园区/ 社区管理者发挥资源整合的作用，促进分布式光伏项目开发企业、当地电网公司、电力用户、屋顶业主、金融机构之间的协调，探索可持续的项目开发建设和运营管理模式；建议来自全球、区域及国别层面的各类多/ 双边发展机构的资金与技术援助为无电地区发展分布式光伏提供有力支持，充分发挥发展机构在分布式光伏项目识别、孵化与援助投资方面的资源与组织优势，与BRI国家电力可及的需求切实对接，进一步探索与商业机构形成联合体等多方合作模式；建议中国的海外能 V“一带一路”国家分布式光伏发展潜力评估源投资企业充分认识到分布式光伏的巨大市场潜力，选择条件相对成熟的地区/ 园区开展项目试点，并复制推广。中国在发展分布式光伏方面积累了多年的经验，在推动绿色“一带一路”建设的过程中，要加强与BRI国家的沟通分享，让中国经验真正有助于这些国家的能源绿色转型。研究方法屋顶分布式光伏（ Rooftop PV）和无电地区分布式光伏是 BRI国家分布式光伏的两种典型应用场景。对于前者，本研究采用建成区（ Built-up area）面积法，在各类建筑屋顶投影面积的基础上，构建“基础情景”和“积极情景”，并考虑遮挡、屋顶坡度、朝向等影响太阳能利用的主要因素，测算出有效屋顶面积，进而估算出装机容量。对于后者，本研究采用国际能源署（ International Energy Agency， IEA）的无电人口最低供电标准（ Access to Energy -Our World in Data），根据 IEA（ World Energy Outlook-2020）提供的 2019年 BRI国家现存无电人口数量，对离网光伏在无电地区电力建设应用领域中的前景进行评估和预测。此外，本研究还选取了埃塞俄比亚和印度尼西亚两个典型国家进行深入分析，最后对分布式光伏潜力评估中的关键结论进行了总结。数据来源本报告的数据来源主要分为“直接引用数据”和“分析归纳数据”两大类 ▪ 直接引用数据。本报告的基本数据主要来源为如下国际组织或机构联合国（United Nations， UN）、世界银行集团（World Bank Group， WB），国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund, IMF）、经济合作与发展组织（Organization for Economic Co- operation and Development， OECD）、人口资源局（ Population Reference Bureau， PRB）、Our World in Data （ OWID）、国际能源署（International Energy Agency， IEA）和国际可再生能源署（International Renewable Energy Agency， IRENA）。 ▪ 分析归纳数据。本报告中，关于 BRI国家的一些相关数据（文中未标注数据来源）系本研究团队根据上述国际组织和机构的基本数据汇总后建立了 BRI数据库，并在此基础上进行分析计算而得出的数据。报告结构本报告分为四个部分。第一部分介绍 BRI及 BRI国家基本情况、全球分布式光伏发电发展现状、在BRI国家发展光伏分布式应用的重要性和光伏发电的主要应用方式。第二部分概述了评估分布式光伏潜力的常见方法，分别从资源侧和需求侧构建了分布式光伏的潜力评估模型。资源侧屋顶分布式光伏的潜力评估采用建成区面积法，对 “基础情景”和“积极情景”两种情景下BRI国家2030年分布式光伏的开发潜力进行评估。需求侧主要从满足无电地区用电缺口的角度出发，评估了离网型分布式光伏的开发潜力。在此基础上，本部分还介绍了适用于BRI国家的分布式光伏典型应用，包括在居民和工商业屋顶的应用、与两轮/ 三轮微型电动车充电桩的结合、与农业种植/ 养殖设施的结合等。第三部分选取埃塞俄比亚和印度尼西亚作为“一带一路”合作的两个重点区域（非洲和东南亚）的代表国家，深入分析了这两个国家的能源供需与经济发展现状，从资源侧和需求侧对分布式光伏的开发应用潜力进行了评估，并识别了分布式光伏在这两个国家的主要应用场景。第四部分总结了BRI 国家分布式光伏潜力评估的关键结论，阐明了在BRI国家推进分布式光伏发展的现实意义，并对主要相关方提出了具体的行动建议。 VI WRI.org.cn VII“一带一路”国家分布式光伏发展潜力评估 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS ▪ Climate change has made catastrophic extreme weather events more frequent in recent years. As the largest GHG emitter, the energy sector should shift from fossil fuels to renewables with urgency. ▪ It is more challenging for Belt and Road BRI countries ii , most of which are economically less developed, to tackle climate change. ▪ With technology growing mature and cost declining substantially, distributed solar PV could be applied to diverse scenarios in BRI countries, bringing significant benefits to both local economic development and energy transition. ▪ Scenario analysis has been conducted to evaluate the potential of distributed solar PV in 141 BRI countries, covering rooftop solar PV for residential and industrial/commercial buildings, as well as solar PV for rural electrification on the demand side where the local populations do not have energy access. ▪ The result shows that by 2030, the incremental capacity of distributed solar PV in 141 BRI countries could reach 150334GW, while the potential demand for off-grid solar PV will be 6.414.0 GW. VIII WRI.org.cn Introduction In recent decades, climate change has had widespread impacts on socio-economic development worldwide. Catastrophic extreme weather events such as mountain fires, droughts, and heavy rainstorms, occurred more and more frequently. It is well recognized that greenhouse gas emissions are the primary cause of climate change. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels account for 76 of total greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, accelerating global energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables is the top priority for tackling climate change. Populations in less-developed areas are more vulnerable to climate change. According to UNHCR, about 90 of refugees come from countries that are most vulnerable and least prepared for climate change adaptation. Most of the Belt and Road countries are developing countries with insufficient energy infrastructure, and significant portions of the local populations still lack access to electricity. It’s challenging for these countries to balance economic development and the need to address climate change. As of November 2021, 139 out of 142 BRI countries submitted Nationally Determined Contributions NDCs. Among these 139 countries, about 70 have set quantitative renewable energy RE targets. Distributed renewable energy is complementary to centralized renewable energy in supporting the clean energy transition. The cost of solar photovoltaic PV has dropped by more than 80 since 2010. In some countries, the levelized cost of distributed PV is already significantly lower than the price of residential electricity, which makes it more practical to scale up distributed solar PV around the world. China is the top investor and equipment supplier in the energy sector on a global scale. It is extremely important for China to promote overseas green investment while developing domestic renewable energy. In addition to building large-scale renewable energy power plants overseas, we should realize that distributed renewable energies, particularly distributed solar, also have great potential in development and far-reaching impact in BRI countries. For example, distributed solar could generate electricity with residential, commercial, and industrial rooftop installations, and be easily installed to deliver electricity to populations without access to the grid. Investment and development of distributed renewable energy could directly improve the local life quality and further contribute to Sustainable Development Goal 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all. About this report This publication is based on existing analysis and provides a quantitative potential assessment focusing on distributed solar in BRI countries from residential, commercial, and industrial applications, as well as rural electrification. Chinese enterprises both state-owned enterprises and private-owned ones, as the main IX“一带一路”国家分布式光伏发展潜力评估 entities of overseas investment, could be better informed on country-specific resources and the demand situation. This publication is intended to provide a general landscape analysis with the aim of showing that there is huge market potential to develop distributed solar PV in BRI countries. As a preliminary potential analysis, this publication is not intended to conduct application-level analysis, due to operational and executional concerns. Research Methods Scenario analysis is applied to this research. We screened available rooftops in built-up areas and analyzed the growth trend in “base-line scenario” and “positive scenario” in the coming two decades, considering the main factors affecting solar energy utilization, such as shading, roof slope, and orientation, then calculated the potential installed capacity of distributed solar PV. Meanwhile, as off-grid solar system is well recognized as one of the best solutions to address the energy access issue, we also estimated the potential installed capacity of off-grid solar PV for those households which currently do not have access to electricity, assuming off-grid solar PV can meet 40-60 of their lowest electricity demand. It should be noted that, there exists an overlap between results from “rooftop screening in built-up areas” and “off-grid solar system analysis”, so the two kinds of results should not be added up. Data Sources The main data sources include the United Nations UN, the World Bank Group WB, the International Monetary Fund IMF, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD, the Population Reference Bureau PRB, Our World in Data OWID, the International Energy Agency IEA, and the International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA. Based on data directly cited from the above- mentioned international organizations, the research team developed the BRI database for analysis. Structure of this report This report has four chapters. The first chapter provides basic information on the BRI and its member countries, the status quo of the globally distributed PV development, the significance of promoting distributed solar PV in BRI countries, and the main applications of the solar power system. In the second chapter, the authors reviewed key evaluation methodologies of the potential distributed solar PV, developed scenarios for potential evaluation through “rooftop screening in built-up areas” and “off-grid solar system analysis”. Furthermore, typical application models of distributed solar PV in BRI countries are presented, including applications on residential and commercial/ industrial rooftops, integration with the charging system for e-mobility, and integration with agricultural facilities. X WRI.org.cn In the third chapter, Ethiopia and Indonesia are selected as representative countries of the two key regions Africa and Southeast Asia of the BRI. Based on the two countries current economic development, energy supply and demand, this chapter assesses the potential of distributed solar PV from the rooftop resources and demand sides, and identifies the main application models of distributed solar PV in both countries. The fourth chapter summarizes the key findings of previous chapters, emphasizes the significance of promoting distributed solar PV in BRI countries, and proposes recommendations to the main stakeholders. Conclusion and recommendations The assessment results show that by 2030, the potential incremental installed capacity of distributed solar PV capacity in 141 BRI countries could reach 150-334 GW, and 6.4-14.0 GW in installed capacity from off-grid solar systems is needed to meet the lowest electricity demand of populations currently without access to electricity. In terms of promoting off-grid solar systems in rural areas, the social implications far outweigh the economic ones, as it is directly related to the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals SDGs, such as “No Poverty“ and “Affordable and Clean Energy.“ The significance and potential of the development and utilization of distributed solar PV in BRI countries require sufficient attention from planners, policymakers, investors, and other stakeholders. ▪ Energy planning departments should incorporate distributed PV into their planning system. National and local policy-making authorities need to introduce appropriate guiding policies and measures to attract investors and project developers to enter the distributed PV market. ▪ Regulators from BRI countries’ cities, industrial parks, and communities need to facilitate the coordination amongst distributed solar PV developers, local utilities, electricity consumers, rooftop owners and financial institutions, and explore sustainable models for project development, construction, and operation management together. ▪ Multilateral/bilateral development agencies, with a unique role in project identification, incubation, and investment, should provide financial and technical assistance to promote distributed solar PV for energy access, connect supply with local demand, further explore multi-party cooperation mechanisms with commercial institutions. ▪ It is suggested that Chinese overseas energy investment enterprises pay more attention to the potential of the distributed solar PV market in BRI countries, develop pilot projects in regions/industrial parks with relatively mature conditions, and scale up the success. ▪ China has accumulated rich experience in the development of distributed solar PV. To promote the Green Belt and Road Initiative, it is necessary for China to strengthen communication and experience-sharing with BRI countries, contributing to the energy transition in those countries. XI“一带一路”国家分布式光伏发展潜力评估 XII WRI.org.cn 1“一带一路”国家分布式光伏发展潜力评估分布式光伏对 “ 一带一路 ”国家的意义第一章家）虽然有较好的太阳能资源，但分布式光伏尚未得到规模化开发利用。本研究报告将对BRI 国家的分布式光伏潜力及典型应用场景进行探讨。 1.1 “一带一路”及“一带一路” 国家基本情况中国在 2013年 9月和 10月分别提出了建设“ 丝绸之路经济带 ”和“ 21世纪海上丝绸之路 ”的合作倡议，简称 “ 一带一路 ”倡议（ The Belt and Road Initiative，以下或简称 BRI，指含中国在内的 142个“ 一带一路 ”国家，而 BRI 141国家指不含中国的其余“一带一路”国家），旨在积极促进与相关国家（地区）的经济合作伙伴关系，实现共同发展。截至 2021年 11月，已有 141个国家和 32个国际组织与中国签署了共建“一带一路”合作文件 7 。对官方数据和本团队分析进行整合可得“一带一路”141个国家占全世界195 8 个国家数量的72.3 ；全部国土面积合计7251 万 km 2 ，占总国土面积的53.3； 2020年，BRI141 国家人口合计34.6亿人，占世界人口的 44.6。从BRI141国家经济发展水平来看，按世界银行 9 2020年 7月 1日开始执行的收入标准划分 iii ，高收入国家共有9 个，而中等偏下或者低收入国家共有104 个，具体分布如图1.1 所示。2020 年，BRI141 国家的人均 GDP为 5037美元，远低于同年全球人均GDP10926 政府间气候变化专门委员会（ IPCC） 202