20190520 Opportunities Challenges ES Jamal Burki 更新-solarbe文库

资源描述：

Opportunities human survival is at stake Pioneering a new industry § Establishing new industry requires displacing incumbent solutions; change may not be in time for some § New business models require value chain players to establish and validate proposition § Traditional industry players must understand the changing landscape and adjust Emergence of industry Technology Viability Solution Viability Early Markets Mainstreaming Solar Storage 2005 - 2012 2012 - 2015 2013 - 2017 2018 Battery Tech. Utility Pilots DRM, PJM Utility RFP, PPA Opportunities most NA growth driven by federal and state incentives. Growth across all segments - Front of the meter storage IPP o Utility scale 100 MW - Behind the meter industrial - Residential Wood Mackenzie Opportunities – NA key markets § Ontario Global Adjustment § Massachusetts SMART § New York VDER § California DRM § Utility Solar Storage Ontario, GA MA, SMART NY, VEDR CA, FTM Utility Solar Storage Whole Sale Market Timing Ec o n o m i c s 10-Year Cash Flows Comparison New York Market 9 Solar Only Solar Storage Payback 4.8 years 3.9 years 10-year IRR 15 17 6MWdc/4MWac PV 2MW/8MWh ESS Challenges Challenges – industry growth phase Revenue Cash Profit § Capital cost of energy storage projects pose challenge for clearing financial hurdle § Growing but relatively small industry with many competitors causing price erosion § Limited differentiation opportunities resulting in price driven market; poses challenge for financial return for the participants Challenges – supply chain § Commodity metals pricing and supply - demand imbalance can disrupt battery availability and price fluctuation § ES demand priority conflicts with EV industry growth priority § Large incentive in one market has affects felt in other markets Korean market incentive – US market demand Challenges – trade uncertainty § The continued trade dispute could pause many projects or cancelled; detrimental to the industry growth in the short-term § Diversification of supply is challenging for industry in infancy but is critical for sustained future growth Challenges – technology risk § Technology risk requires balance sheet to back long-term warranty obligations; startup ventures and new technologies need insurance or partnerships § Safety and environmental impact continues to be concern for community approval § Regulatory and standards are evolving; adding to the cost and uncertainty Challenges – end of life obligation § End of life management not well understood; poses unquantified risk for all participants § High cost of recycling and redeployment poses future liability § Regulatory framework must evolve to address stationary and EV market needs Closing § Slow moving industry with high capital requirement § Crowded landscape with minimal differentiation opportunities § Opportunities for companies that can be flexible and work with technology, regulatory and financial risk § Bright future with continued supply chain improvements and opportunities with more complex applications 谢谢 Thanks for Your Time