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March 2019 McKinsey Center for Future Mobility ® Making electric vehicles profitable ERR 1 7100 ofw e e k 3 ERR 30     ERR   ERR   McKinsey Center for Future Mobility ® Making electric vehicles profitable Introduction The future looks bright for electric-vehicle EV growth. Consumers are more willing than ever to consider buying EVs, and sales are rising fast. Most major markets have consistently registered 50 to 60 percent growth in recent years, albeit from small bases. More new models from a growing cadre of automotive OEMs make finding a suitable EV easier in 2018 alone OEMs launched about 100 new models and sold two million units in total globally. Likewise, performance improvements continue with respect to range, performance, and reliability. Regulations in major car marketsnamely China, the European Union, and the United Statescompel OEMs to produce more EVs and encourage consumers to buy them. 4 Making electric vehicles profitableHowever, there is a problem today, most OEMs do not make a profit from the sale of EVs. In fact, these vehicles often cost 12,000 more to produce than comparable vehicles powered by internal- combustion engines ICEs in the small- to midsize- car segment and the small-utility-vehicle segment Exhibit 1. What is more, carmakers often struggle to recoup those costs through pricing alone. The result apart from a few premium models, OEMs stand to lose money on almost every EV sold, which is clearly unsustainable. Many carmakers appear to be resigned to this fate, at least for now. Battery costs represent the largest single factor in this price differential. As industry battery prices decline, perhaps five to seven years from now, the economics of EVs should shift from red to green. Current thinking holds that the industry will continue to produce EVslargely because it has little alternative in the face of stringent fuel-economy and emissions policiesand that the industry will, in the meantime, absorb the losses. Our analyses show that better options exist, even today, to accelerate the industry toward profitability from both product and business- model perspectives. Some of these options include aggressively reducing cost through “decontenting,” optimizing range for urban mobility, partnering with other automakers to reduce R   y  y S   yx;UBS;M y y B CE  B CE   CE   BEV  R CE    A 5 kW   y k  9Š  kW P     DŽ         5 4Š5 95   .5    .5– .5 – .5 .5 .5  D  d  There’s a cost gap of about 2,000 between electric vehicles and internal- combustion-engine vehicles today Ex  5 Making electric vehicles profitableAn industry in a jam Understanding the challenges and opportunities for OEMs requires examination of the changing landscape of consumer attitudes, product availability, EV economics, and regulatory tailwinds. 1 Russell Hensley, Patrick Hertzke, Stefan M. Knupfer, Nicolaas Kramer, Nicholas Laverty, and Patrick Schaufuss, “Electrifying insights How automakers can drive electrified vehicle sales and profitability,” January 2017, McKinsey.com; “AAA 1-in-5 U.S. drivers want an electric vehicle,” AAA NewsRoom, May 8, 2018, newsroom.aaa.com;”; Hoang Nguyen, “Middle of the road An analysis of the automotive sector,” YouGov, January 9, 2019, today.yougov.com. 2 Russell Hensley, Patrick Hertzke, Stefan M. Knupfer, Nicolaas Kramer, Nicholas Laverty, and Patrick Schaufuss, “Electrifying insights How automakers can drive electrified vehicle sales and profitability,” January 2017; “Electric Vehicles Survey results,” Dalia Research, November 1, 2016, daliaresearch.com. 3 “Consumers in China increasingly enthusiastic about new-energy vehicles and eager for battery technology advancement, J.D. Power Survey finds,” J.D. Power, February 26, 2018, jdpower.com; China Youth Daily, August 2018, cyol.net. Consumer preferences on electric vehicles Consumers’ EV preferences are shifting. The share of global consumers that would consider purchasing an EV is on the rise. In the United States, between 10 and 30 percent of consumers indicated their preference to consider an EV as their next purchase on national surveys. 1 In Europe, the reported share of consumers considering EV purchase was higher, at 40 to 60 percent, 2 and in China, it was over 70 percent, given the presence of strong government incentives to adopt these vehicles. 3 This trend is even more pronounced among customers younger than 50 years old living in urban areas. Sales in 2018 only provide a partial view, given that EVs accounted for less than 5 percent of sales in most markets. However, the pace of change tells a different story, with annual sales’ growth rates now frequently in the range of 100 percent or more. Product availability On the supply side, this increasing demand will be met with a broader set of choices. Today, new EV models are launching at a rate of approximately 6 Making electric vehicles profitable120 a year, providing significantly more options regarding vehicle segment, performance, feature set, and value. Compare this with the prior seven years, during which new plug-in-hybrid-EV PHEV and battery-EV BEV launches globally averaged about 20 per year, often with premium prices. Historically, domestic Chinese OEMs provided the widest selection of models, but by 2020, most global OEMs across China, Europe, and the United States will offer a broad range of vehicles and price points. Electric-vehicle economics Our survey from 2017 also revealed that an EV’s purchase price and driving range are the biggest hurdles to wider consumer adoptionand both are linked inextricably to battery economics. 4 Today, a typical BEV in the United States, priced around 30,000, does not provide a reasonable payback period for many buyers, given the size and cost of a battery pack; to recoup the price premium for an EV versus an ICE vehicle through savings on fuel and maintenance, the payback period is five to six years for an average US buyer driving 13,000 miles a year. For high-mileage drivers exceeding 30,000 miles per yearsuch as full-time cab, Uber, and Lyft driversEVs are already “in the money” during a typical two- to 4 Russell Hensley, Patrick Hertzke, Stefan M. Knupfer, Nicolaas Kramer, Nicholas Laverty, and Patrick Schaufuss, “Electrifying insights How automakers can drive electrified vehicle sales and profitability,” January 2017, McKinsey.com. 5 Total EV sales in China from January to November 2018 was approximately 730,000. three-year ownership or lease period. Looking ahead, each 20 to 25 percent improvement in battery cost reduces payback by one year, but OEMs will need to take other actions to accelerate profitability. Regulatory tailwind The role of the regulator in today’s EV landscape cannot be overstated. Ever-tightening government emissions regulations act as direct stimuli for OEM EV investments, and current subsidies and tax exemptions help bridge gaps between OEM pricing and consumer willingness to pay. In China, for example, the 2018 regulatory- incentive system, including supply and demand incentives and restrictions, pushed global EV sales above one million units. 5 However, China is not the only major market increasing regulatory pressure. In December 2018, the European Union’s 28 member states agreed to new carbon- dioxide regulations that would set a target of 37.5 percent reduction in car emissions by 2030 when compared with 2021. This was significantly more aggressive than the European Commission’s original proposal of a 30 percent reduction. Placeholder 7 Making electric vehicles profitableAccelerating toward profitability At the beginning of this article, we highlighted the fact that today’s EVs are costlier to produce, and consumers have a rather limited willingness to pay a premium for EVs. The combination of these two factors leads to lower profitability of today’s EVs versus today’s ICE vehicles. However, based on our analyses, it is possible to use today’s technology to design a profitable EVone that would be cost-competitive with ICE vehicles by the early to mid-2020s. In our study, we analyze the example of a small- to midsize EV that is today approximately 12,000 more costly, and therefore less profitable, than a similar ICE vehicle. The challenge find cost and revenue levers to narrow the gap. Optimize electric-vehicle designs for the market We believe OEMs can reduce their EV costs by 5,700 to 7,100 by pursuing strategic decontenting paired with a dedicated EV platform Exhibit 2. This could be accomplished leveraging new freedom in design unlocked by using electric rather than ICE subsystems and applying leading strategies in low- cost ICE design and from cutting-edge EV-focused OEMs. 8 Making electric vehicles profitable                           CE    y 3 A       5  ‚       S   yx;MK y y B CE 4    BEV j   BEV  C   345 7488  5 9 56    5 D y pk p     m I   D              Oz     y F  y z P       3 G  EV k  w CE  577 84 5 Cost-reduction levers could bring down electric-vehicle costs considerably Ex 9 Making electric vehicles profitableDesign simplifications and value-neutral decontenting 1 Antoine Chatelain, Mauro Erriquez, Pierre-Yves Moulière, and Philip Schäfer, “What a teardown of the latest electric vehicles reveals about the future of mass-market EVs,” March 2018, McKinsey.com. OEMs can take lessons from leading e-vehicle concepts, for which our proprietary teardown study revealed that cockpit, electronics, and body simplifications netted up to 600 in reduced costs, without removing core feature content tied to value generation for the OEM. 1 Eliminating extra displays, buttons, switches, wiring, modules, and additional structural components, as well as reducing the overall design complexity, drove major savings. Our experts also noted that OEMs can only capture all of these material cost savings when using a dedicated EV platform that enables better packaging of interior cabin space, power electronics, motors, and battery packs. However, we also gain insights by benchmarking low-cost designs from the non- EV world. Our analysis shows that OEMs can apply these learnings and create fun-to-drive and simple vehicles costing 1,300 to 1,800 less through smart feature choices, design-specification adjustments, and manufacturing improvementsall without compromising safety. Some of these content choices include using more basic vehicle electronics with fewer powered options, straightforward body styling and lighting, uncomplicated seat designs, and simplified interior trim Exhibit 3. Our work suggests that companies can extract component savings of 20 to 30 percent with these design approaches, including by adjusting material specifications and negotiating with suppliers with the shared objective of EV profitability. Optimized for functionality and low cost Simplified user controls Optimized battery pack density from dedicated EV platform Reduced IP complexity with enhanced function- ality via electronic components Integration of e-motor and power electronic for reduced material cost, packaging, and wiring   Decontenting or design revision may be an opportunity for electric vehicles  l               l                         l                       l           l I             3  10 Making electric vehicles profitableOptimizing for urban mobility For many customer segments, today’s EVs offer either too little driving range, such as smaller EVs with ranges of fewer than 100 miles, or too much, such as luxury EVs with ranges of approximately 300 miles, when compared to actual driving patterns. The average vehicle- miles traveled VMT for an urban population is around 20 miles per day in the United States, and it increases to around 30 miles per day when accounting for demographic groups that drive more. 2 Assuming today’s battery efficiency in kilowatt-hours kWh per mile, a potential sweet spot for urban customers is approximately 25 kWh of energy. However, if we account for consumer preference to use the same vehicle for suburban and occasional rural travel, the optimal battery capacity increases to approximately 40 kWh, equating to250 kilometers, or about 160 miles, based on average VMT in rural areas. A reduction in battery capacity to 40 kWh, from 50 kWh, would save 1,900 to 2,100 today, while the range would still enable most consumers, especially those in urban environments, to complete trips without any sacrifice to their daily routines. 2 Summary of travel trends 2017 National Household Travel Survey, US Department of Transportation, July 2018, nhts.ornl.gov. 3 Antoine Chatelain, Mauro Erriquez, Pierre-Yves Moulière, and Philip Schäfer, “What a teardown of the latest electric vehicles reveals about the future of mass-market EVs,” March 2018, McKinsey.com. 4 In August 2017, Mazda Toyota announced a joint-venture plant in the United States at the cost of 1.6 billion, wh
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