印度光伏协会CREC_Solar

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INDIA’S NEW ENERGY MARKET AND POLICY ANALYSISC. Narasimhan, President of Indian Solar Association Chairman, Raasi GroupVenue Taihu International Expo Center , Date 02.11.17Presented By AGENDA INTRODUCTION International market review Indian utility scale solar market Capacity addition Types of policy based projects in India Project development landscape Policy update UDAY scheme Development of solar parks Rooftop solar Market growth and challengesINTRODUCTIONThe Government of India has upscale the target of renewable power capacity to 175 GW which includes 100 GW from Solar, 60 GW from wind, 10 GW from bio-power and 5 GW from small hydro power to be achieved by 2022. The Ministry is implementing a wide range of schemes with fiscal and financial support and conducive policies to achieve this target. Largest ever wind power capacity addition of 3423 MW, exceeding target by 43 and solar power capacity addition of 3,019 MW, exceeding target by 116 was made in 2015-16 . For the first time the largest solar power projects capacity of 20,904 MW was tendered and 31,472 Solar Pumps were installed which is higher than total number of pumps installed during last 24 years in 2015-16. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy MNRE is the nodal Ministry at the federal level for all matters relating to new and renewable energy.International market reviewTotal global solar PV installed capacity surpassed 300 GW by the end of 2016. 77 GW was added in 2016, a year-on-year growth rate of 34. China led with 34.5 GW, followed by the USA 14.5 GW, Japan 10.2 GW and India 5 GW in fourth place.In 2017, about 79 GW capacity is expected to be added globally, registering marginal growth over 2016. The stagnation is mainly due to policy pullbacks across major markets including China, Japan, the USA and most parts of Europe. Meanwhile, India is expected to continue its rapid growth. With 8.8 GW of projected capacity addition growth of 76 over 2016, it is set to become the third largest PV market in 2017, overtaking Japan.Figure 1 Capacity addition in leading international marketsSource BRIDGE TO INDIA, GTM researchOther key trends shaping the global solar industry include Asia continues to dominate the solar industry while Europe continues to fall in rankings. Auctions are gaining universal acceptance - number of countries using auctions to allocate solar capacity has increased from 14 in 2014 to 22 in 2016. Solar module prices continue to fall faster than most experts had anticipated. Prices in India fell to 32 ¢/Wp in Q1 2017 – 29 over last year. Such a rapid fall has made solar PV the cheapest new source of power in most countries and provided demand boost in emerging economies. Developed countries are slowly shifting towards utility scale projects whereas in emerging markets, governments are trying to encourage more rooftop solar growth.In India, rooftop solar has maintained a 10-12 share of overall solar capacity. This is much lower than other key markets such as US, Germany, China, Spain and Australia.Types of policy based projects in IndiaType of policy based projects in IndiaNotesEPC – Engineering, Procurement and ConstructionVGF – Viability Gap Funding, a capital subsidy provided by the Government of IndiaPPP – Public Private PartnershipRPO – Renewable Purchase ObligationProject development landscapeAs the Indian solar market grows and project sizes increase, international developers and private equity funded IPPs are playing a greater role.Commissioned capacity as of March 31, 2017 12,163 MWSource BRIDGE TO INDIA researchCapacity under development as of March 31, 2017 12,381 MWIndian utility scale solar marketCapacity additionAs of March 31, 2017, India had installed 12.2 GW of utility scale solar PV capacity.Commissioned capacity as of March 31, 2017Figure 4 Capacity addition in leading states14© BRIDGE TO INDIA, 2017Policy updateRenewable purchase obligation RPOIn line with the 8 solar RPO target for the country for March 2022, MNRE has allocated individual targets for states to set, but actual performance varies highly across states and enforcement is poor.Installed plus pipeline capacity vs RPO target for 2021-22Source Ministry of New and Renewable EnergyFinancial incentivesThe Government of India has been offering several financial incentives to promote the solar sector. But as cost of solar power is coming down, these benefits are being slowly phased out.Viability gap funding VGF Solar Energy Corporation of India SECI has allocated 4,835 MW of project capacity under the VGF route, whereby a capital subsidy is provided to project developers bidding for projects at a pre-determined tariff. As of March 31, 2017, another 785 MW of tenders under SECI VGF scheme are under process.Accelerated depreciation All solar projects have been historically eligible to avail depreciation of 80 of asset value but this rate has been reduced to 40 from April 2017 onwards.Ten-year corporate tax holiday A 10-year income tax holiday has been offered to solar projects so far, but this benefit has been withdrawn from April 2017 onwards.UDAY scheme27 states and union territories have joined the Government of India’s UDAY scheme for financial and operational reform of DISCOMs. Approximately Rs. 2,043 billion 30 billion worth of bonds have been issued, equivalent to nearly 50 of total outstanding debt as of March, 2016.Progress on UDAY schemeDevelopment of solar parksThe Government of India has sanctioned development of 40,000 MW of solar park infrastructure by the year 2020 with a financial support of M 81 billion US1.2 billion. Solar projects with a total capacity of 8,900 MW have already been allocated in 8 solar parks.Implementation status of solar parks in top 10 statesRooftop solarInstallation trendsIndia’s total installed rooftop solar capacity is estimated at 1,247 MW as of December 31, 2016. Capital Expenditure CAPEX route accounts for nearly 84 of total installed capacity but the Operating Expenditure OPEX model has been gaining ground in the last couple of years.Rooftop solar annual capacity additionProjections11.9 GW of new rooftop solar capacity addition is expected in India between 2017 and 2021.Rooftop solar capacity addition projectionsMarket growth and challengesSolar capacity addition by March 2022The industry is more optimistic than last year and expects India to add a total of 60 GW solar capacity by 2022 5 over last year but still considerably below the government target of 100 GW.Rooftop solar capacity addition by March 2022We see the same positive trend for rooftop solar capacity addition. Average of allthe responses indicates estimated rooftop capacity of 14 GW by 2022. Rapidly falling costs and government efforts to boost demand in the public sector haveImproved growth prospects in this market.Open access solar capacity addition by March 2022Sentiment for open access solar capacity remains unchanged over last year.Average response indicates estimated open access based capacity of 6 GW by the end of March, 2022.Module manufacturingCurrent statusIndia’s total module manufacturing capacity is estimated at 5,286 MW. However, most of this capacity is obsolete, sub-scale and uncompetitive. Total domestic production in 2016 is estimated at only about 1,330 MW. Adani is the biggest module manufacturer with a capacity of 1,200 MW, followed by Waaree, Vikram and Emmvee with capacities of 500 MW each.Import/export statusAbout 88 of all module requirement in India is met through imports 84 from China. Imports have risen in line with growth in capacity addition but exports have seen a significant downward trend.Solar module import trends Solar module export trendsSource Ministry of CommerceManufacturing incentivesThe Government of India, together with state governments, is offering several incentives for manufacturing modules in India – including capital subsidy, operating cost subsidy and export incentives – under different policies. But a sector specific manufacturing policy, which has been believed to be in consideration for over a year now, has not been finalized yet.Thank You