Satellite Derived and Ground Measured Solar Irradiance for PV Power Nowcasting-Elke Lorenz -Fraunhofer ISE-solarbe文库

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© Fraunhofer ISE Satellite Based and Ground Measured Solar Irradiance for PV Power Nowcasting PV Live FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE Elke Lorenz 1 , Wolfgang Heydenreich 1 , Christian Braun 1 , Nicolas Holland 1 , Tobias Zech 1 , Bin Xu-Sigurdsson 1 , Anna Dittmann 1 , Steffen Karalus 1 ,Björn Müller 1 , Sven Killinger 1 , Philipp Guthke 2 1 Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems 2 TransnetBW GmbH PVPMC modeling workshop Weihai 04.02.2018 www.ise.fraunhofer.de © Fraunhofer ISE AGENDA  Motivation  PV Live project  Evaluation © Fraunhofer ISE Motivation Contribution of PV to electricity supply in Germany  installed PV power end 2017 43 GW peak  up to 60 of electricity demand from PV  strong variability of solar power www.energy.charts, Sources 50Hertz, Amprion, Tennet, TrannetBW, EEX 2.4.18 3.4.18 4.4.18 5.4.18 6.4.18 7.4.18 8.4.18 date 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 power GW 31GW PV 13 GW PV Conventional 100 MW Wind Solar © Fraunhofer ISE Motivation Integration of PV by transmission system operators  Trading of PV power at European power exchange EPEX  Congestion management Requirements  PV forecast for the next hours and days  Assessment of current PV power feed-in Image source Francis Mc Loyd © Fraunhofer ISE Motivation PV power feed-in for control area of TransnetBW  Installed PV power 5.7 GW  Approx. 317 000 PV power plants contribute to the PV power feed-in  Not all PV power plants provide real-time measurements in 15min resolution  Current overall PV feed-in must be estimated from available information Upscaling method required © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live Standard upscaling method and PV Live Standard Upscaling method based on PV measurements © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live Standard upscaling method and PV Live Standard Upscaling method based on PV measurements spatial interpolation/ aggregation/ calibration PV measurements reference plants information on PV portfolio EEG data, annual yield, PV upscaling Reference PV plants © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live Standard upscaling method and PV Live Standard Upscaling method based on PV measurements spatial interpolation/ aggregation/ calibration PV measurements reference plants information on PV portfolio EEG data, annual yield, PV upscaling Influence of local, system-specifc factors unclear shading, snow, curtailment, degradation, orientation, self consumption, © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live upscaling method based on solar irradiance data spatial aggregation/ calibration PV Live Standard upscaling method and PV Live Standard Upscaling method based on PV measurements spatial interpolation/ aggregation/ calibration PV measurements reference plants PV power values PV simulation solar irradiance/ temperature Clear definition of provided data expected PV power for standard plant Influence of local, system- specifc factors unclear shading, snow, degradation, orientation, self consumption, curtailment, information on PV portfolio EEG data, annual yield, PV upscaling PV upscaling © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live upscaling method based on solar irradiance data spatial aggregation/ calibration PV Live Standard upscaling method and PV Live Standard Upscaling method based on PV measurements PV upscaling spatial interpolation/ aggregation/ calibration PV measurements reference plants PV power values PV simulation solar irradiance/ temperature Clear definition of provided data expected PV power for standard plant Influence of local, system- specifc factors unclear shading, snow, degradation, orientation, self consumption, curtailment, information on PV portfolio EEG data, annual yield, © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live Ground-measurements and satellite-based irradiance data Ground-measurements  40 stations in Baden Württemberg  1min resolution, Satellite-based irradiance data  High spatial resolution 1km x 2km  Time resolution 15min Currently 33 stations © Fraunhofer ISE PV Live The measurement station  3 silicon sensors tilted  Tilt 25°  East/ South/ West - simulated „standard PV plant“  Pyranometer horizontal high accuracy/straight-forward combination with satellite-based irradiance values  Real-time transmission every minute fast access to data © Fraunhofer ISE Irradiance measurements in minute resolution global horizontal and tilted irradiance PV Live Measurements and irradiance maps Satellite-based irradiance maps Heliosat Method *  Spatial resolution  4km x 4km  ca. 4000 grid points * Hammer A., Lorenz E Solar Energy Assessment Using Remote Sensing Technologies , Remote Sensing of Environment 2003 © Fraunhofer ISE Irradiance measurements in minute resolution global horizontal and tilted irradiance PV Live Measurements and irradiance maps Satellite-based irradiance maps © Fraunhofer ISE AGENDA  Motivation  PV Live Project  Evaluation © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales  Dataset  19 stations  August 17 – April 18  Global horizontal irradiance GHI Time GHI [W/m 2 ] 15min values single stations © Fraunhofer ISE  Quantitative evaluation  Root mean square deviation 𝑅𝑅 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝐷𝐷 1 𝑁𝑁 � 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 𝐺𝐺 𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 − 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 𝐺𝐺 𝑚𝑚 𝑚𝑚𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 2 𝑁𝑁 𝑖𝑖 1  Normalized with respect to average irradiance  If normalized like PV wrt. STC 1000 W/m 2 yields about 6 Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales 15min values single stations RMSE 60 W/m 2 29 RMSD 60 W/m 2 29 © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales 15min values single stations RMSE 60 W/m 2 29 RMSD 60 W/m 2 29 RMSD 45 W/m 2 22 Hourly values single stations © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales From single station values to regional averages © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales From single station values to regional averages  Here mean of 19 sites © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales From single station values to regional averages  Here mean of 19 sites  Reduced fluctuations © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales From single station values to regional averages  Here mean of 19 sites  Reduced fluctuations  Reduced deviation between measurements and satellite data © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales 15min values, average 19 stations RMSD 25 W/m 2 12 Hourly values average 19 stations RMSD 23 W/m 2 11 © Fraunhofer ISE Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance on different scales 15min values, average 19 stations RMSD 25 W/m 2 12 Hourly values average 19 stations RMSD 23 W/m 2 11 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐷𝐷 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑅𝑅 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐷𝐷 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 𝑎𝑎 𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 42 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐷𝐷 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑅𝑅 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝐷𝐷 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 𝑎𝑎 𝑠𝑠 𝑠𝑠 51 © Fraunhofer ISE  Estimation of irradiance at ground station with of neighbouring stations  Depends on inter-station distance  Comparison with satellite-based irradiance horizontal lines  Satellite derived irradiance values with 15 min/1 h resolution better agreement for inter-station distances investigated here 10 km RMSD- 1h satellite RMSD- 15min satellite inter-station distance [km] relative RMSD [] 1 hour 15 min 1 min Evaluation Satellite-based irradiance vs. interpolation of neighbouring ground measurement stations © Fraunhofer ISE Summary  Nowcasting of PV power important for grid integration of a large share of distributed PV plants  New Approach PV Live Irradiance data for PV power upscaling  High-resolution grid of measurement stations in Baden Württemberg  Combination with satellite-based irradiance  Aim Improvement of PV power upscaling at TransnetBW  Evaluation of satellite derived irradiance on multiple spatial and temporal scales shows good accuracy © Fraunhofer ISE Thank you for your attention Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Elke Lorenz www.ise.fraunhofer.de Elke.lorenzise.fraunhofer.de